Disc Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Finally under 50 and sitting at 48*. Hopefully won't see these numbers again for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hitting 32 is going to be sweet. I can't wait. I'm diggin you dc guys not sweating temps this go around. Long time coming 43/28 Definitely. All my focus is on how we're going to bust on precip now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hitting 32 is going to be sweet. I can't wait. I'm diggin you dc guys not sweating temps this go around. Long time coming 43/28 Let's make sure DCA can get down to 40 by midnight first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 My PWS went from 38.6 at 6:35 to 44.3 at 6:55. Anyone else have a similar strange jump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Definitely. All my focus is on how we're going to bust on precip now. When the streets whiten after 15 minutes of decent rates your gonna feel like someone slipped something in your crunchberries I almost felt like 4+ was a lock last night but I was positive when I woke up and scanned 6z stuff. Not sure what you would consider a bust but imo .35 @ 12:1 is prob worst case for both of us. And I'm totally good with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 0z obs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gunny23 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Ill add to that looking at the route of your aircraft it is going to be at IAD tonight then to MDT-IAD-PHL-IAD-PHL-IAD-STL. Leaving PHL at 156pm even if it gets to PHL from IAD tomorrow early afternoon I dont think it even makes it back to IAD at 255pm. It is going to be local all day long tomorrow and those short routes are the first to get canceled I just hope they cancel it early enough so that I don't have to go sit in an airport all afternoonuntil they finally cancel it two hours after schedule take off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Shutting them down one by one Capture.JPG I got out to LAS this morning. I miss the best events usually, another sign we are on the precipice of an overperformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Let's make sure DCA can get down to 40 by midnight first They'll be close or shortly after. CAA>radiation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 40/25 Winds shifted late this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 When the streets whiten after 15 minutes of decent rates your gonna feel like someone slipped something in your crunchberries I almost felt like 4+ was a lock last night but I was positive when I woke up and scanned 6z stuff. Not sure what you would consider a bust but imo .35 @ 12:1 is prob worst case for both of us. And I'm totally good with that Yeah.. for some reason this one has just seemed right to me for a while. After skipping class for the last vort session I did some extra homework. But I'm still gonna worry till we have about 2" and radar still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I just hope they cancel it early enough so that I don't have to go sit in an airport all afternoonuntil they finally cancel it two hours after schedule take off Ill keep an eye on it tonight and if I see it cnxcld Ill let you know too. Im sure they will cancel it before you leave for IAD tomorrow. I got out to LAS this morning. I miss the best events usually, another sign we are on the precipice of an overperformer. LOL Thanks for leaving us to another over performer then. Have a great time out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 They'll be close or shortly after. CAA>radiation Yeah, the 3 degree last hour is much better....30 or 31 is a reasonable temp for DCA to fall to by 6 am. I think the 20's would be hard given that they're still like 7 degrees above modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yeah, the 3 degree last hour is much better....30 or 31 is a reasonable temp for DCA to fall to by 6 am. I think the 20's would be hard given that they're still like 7 degrees above modeled. HRRR gets to like 34 at midnight but it's already 5 off. I think somewhere around 40 is reasonable. However we're also going to be bringing dews down to the teens as we get toward pre dawn. Even if DCA started above freezing it would probably quickly drop below. Temps aren't a concern even there really. I do think roads at least around here will struggle until we get rates.. but if we get the snow in early maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yeah.. for some reason this one has just seemed right to me for a while. After skipping class for the last vort session I did some extra homework. But I'm still gonna worry till we have about 2" and radar still looks good. I'm sticking a bookmark in the vortbook for this one. It's going to be useful to refer back to sometime before 2022. I kept looping h5/h7 since Fri night and the rounding the base and turning kept looking sweet but I'm not confident enough to say surface is totally out of whack. Maybe next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yeah, the 3 degree last hour is much better....30 or 31 is a reasonable temp for DCA to fall to by 6 am. I think the 20's would be hard given that they're still like 7 degrees above modeled. The latest LAV guidance (GFS-lamp) agrees with you... http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/lamp/getlav.pl?sta=KDCA&sta=KBWI&sta=KIAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 So DCA prob ends up having an avg temp of 27 or 28 tomorrow, for the official tally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Coldfront is just south of Scranton starting to advance. WInds shift from NW to N around 9utc and NE by 12utc. That's when the big temp drops should occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yeah, the 3 degree last hour is much better....30 or 31 is a reasonable temp for DCA to fall to by 6 am. I think the 20's would be hard given that they're still like 7 degrees above modeled. The short-term models have been consistently advertising temps near 30 at the start so that's a good call I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Windyyyy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yeah, the 3 degree last hour is much better....30 or 31 is a reasonable temp for DCA to fall to by 6 am. I think the 20's would be hard given that they're still like 7 degrees above modeled. It will be a quick little freefall during the first couple hours of decent rates. And another quick freefall once the low hits stride and makes its way up. Gonna be so awesome to track. 42.4/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 HRRR gets to like 34 at midnight but it's already 5 off. I think somewhere around 40 is reasonable. However we're also going to be bringing dews down to the teens as we get toward pre dawn. Even if DCA started above freezing it would probably quickly drop below. Temps aren't a concern even there really. I do think roads at least around here will struggle until we get rates.. but if we get the snow in early maybe not. On the thought of the HRRR, I never knew sounding profiles were available! http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/soundings/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=skewt&run_time=20+Jan+2014+-+16Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 My PWS went from 38.6 at 6:35 to 44.3 at 6:55. Anyone else have a similar strange jump? This happens sometimes on day's like this, with a strong mixing boundary. A met student a long time ago told me this effect was from a combination of urban heat island effects and the boundary layer collapsing. Essentially (if I remember correctly, don't hold me to this) an inversion forms above the pocket of slightly warmer air after sunset, (the sounding would look like a mirrored "Z") the winds start to die because of the inversion above, the "warmer" air pocket falls (due to the colder (denser) air above it) and hits the ground causing a secondary jump. Edit: I've recorded this numerous times on my station since I am often downwind of DC/Balt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Windyyyy Was going to say that. Was out doing the mom taxi thing and noticed the wind had picked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This happens sometimes on day's like this, with a strong mixing boundary. A met student a long time ago told me this effect was from a combination of urban heat island effects and the boundary layer collapsing. Essentially (if I remember correctly, don't hold me to this) an inversion forms above the pocket of slightly warmer air after sunset, (the sounding would look like a mirrored "Z") the winds start to die because of the inversion above, the "warmer" air pocket falls (due to the colder (denser) air above it) and hits the ground causing a secondary jump. Edit: I've recorded this numerous times on my station since I am often downwind of DC/Balt. Good to know, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 46/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The US is remarkably clear of precipitation apart from our now only little system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gunny23 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ill keep an eye on it tonight and if I see it cnxcld Ill let you know too. Im sure they will cancel it before you leave for IAD tomorrow. Flight just cancelled. ..Psych! Thanks Dave! LOL Thanks for leaving us to another over performer then. Have a great time out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Down to 43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 stuck at 44/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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