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January 21st Snowstorm OBS


snow.

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Can someone explain what Kool-Aid AKQ is drinking?  They just upped my forecast in SBY from 5-8 which I thought was silly to begin with to 5-11.  NAM/GFS have had me in 3-4 inches for three runs.  Yet AKQ says in their AFD that they expect deformation bands to increase snow totals on the lower MD Eastern Shore.

 

Last 700 maps I saw didn't indicate that.  Can anyone enlighten me?

 

35 and cloudy here currently.

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Band on the front edge making a right hand turn and starting its SE move. Dca delayed but not denied. It's coming

 

it is going to take a while for the DC/Nova crew...this was modeled...it might take another 2 hours...hopefully less....and we'll be above freezing until it starts

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just saw..uber wet....but not sure it matters at this point....it probably has a member giving us 75"

 

I still kind of like the GFS over the NAM or euro based on the surface and 500 tracks but it has the lowest resolution of the bunch so maybe I'm being stupid. I just remember the euro failing on Jan 2.  

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I still kind of like the GFS over the NAM or euro based on the surface and 500 tracks but it has the lowest resolution of the bunch so maybe I'm being stupid. I just remember the euro failing on Jan 2.  

 

EURO has failed fairly hard in short range with the two moderate snowstorms here in Philly

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I still kind of like the GFS over the NAM or euro based on the surface and 500 tracks but it has the lowest resolution of the bunch so maybe I'm being stupid. I just remember the euro failing on Jan 2.  

 

the euro was too dry on 1/2 once it scaled back from its big run....I could see us getting 0.5" which is higher than the rest of guidance but lower than the 0.7" from the GFS...

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I still kind of like the GFS over the NAM or euro based on the surface and 500 tracks but it has the lowest resolution of the bunch so maybe I'm being stupid. I just remember the euro failing on Jan 2.

I'm glad you posted this. I kinda felt like it was too broadbrushed, far south, and wet.

Don't get me wrong, I adore h5 and slp track. Plenty of dynamics to work with and a long duration considering the flow and no block. We're really getting lucky here. This one is a new chapter in the Flukebook

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