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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Middle of Winter


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OSU whats your take on the next system early next week? Any changes with the latest runs. Euro shows a big hit for this area for several consecutive runs.

I see no reason to change what I said before.  Models will oscillation north and south over the next few days...but the general theme is the same...strong system with a lot of moisture running into cold air.  

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WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT STORM ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS THIS LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA. EC AND GFS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPS ALOFT...GFS IS
A LITTLE WARMER AND IMPLIES A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER ON WEDNESDAY...EC IS NOW COLDER WITH ALL SNOW. BOTH MODELS
PLACE A STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ALONG THIS DEFORMATION ZONE...AND
WITH THE SO-CALLED "WRAP AROUND" SNOW PATTERN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND EASTWARD AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL A
DRYING AND EVENTUAL CLEARING TREND TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

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WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT STORM ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT

AND WEDNESDAY AS THIS LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA. EC AND GFS ARE IN

GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPS ALOFT...GFS IS

A LITTLE WARMER AND IMPLIES A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN

TIER ON WEDNESDAY...EC IS NOW COLDER WITH ALL SNOW. BOTH MODELS

PLACE A STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA

WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ALONG THIS DEFORMATION ZONE...AND

WITH THE SO-CALLED "WRAP AROUND" SNOW PATTERN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE

OF THE SURFACE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS

WILL EXTEND EASTWARD AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL A

DRYING AND EVENTUAL CLEARING TREND TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND

FRIDAY.

:thumbsup:

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Solid hit, there is another system following this one which goes on a similar path. Definitely shaping up to be a better period synoptically.

Indeed! that midweek storm has the potential for heavy snow across WNY/CNY if the track on euro verifies lets hope we don't get screwed by the dreaded NW trend..

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Actually, the trend with tonight's 0z suite was towards a weaker primary, an earlier transfer, and an all-snow solution for upstate NY. The concern I have now is that if the primary gets any weaker or the transfer happens sooner, then our QPF and snow totals will dry up. The ECM already had KITH struggling to get above .7" QPF, with the heaviest snows near the mix line in the lower Hudson Valley.

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SN just changed over to RN/PL here north of SYR. Coating of snow. It held on longer than I thought it would. Temp 33-34F.  Tues-Wed looks somewhat promising but hard to trust these complex Miller B's.  Maybe its my misperception but it seems we've been screwed more often than not. Maybe we are due for some over-performance.

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THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY WHILE

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS NORTH TO THE TENNESSEE

VALLEY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED

INVERTED TROUGH WILL STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE...BUT

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE LOW

LIFTS NORTH TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY

WEDNESDAY...SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT AN ENERGETIC WARM ADVECTION PATTERN LATE

TUESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW

WITH THE GREATER QPF ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. THE MAIN

DIFFERENCE IS AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PASSES FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA

TO COASTAL MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...GFS

MAINTAINS STRENGTH IN THE ORIGINAL LOW CENTER WHEREAS ECMWF WEAKENS

THE LOW OVER WESTERN PA IN SACRIFICE TO THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW

AND THUS KEEPS WEST TO EAST ORIENTED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NEW

YORK STATE AND PROLONGS THE PRESENCE OF STEADY SNOW OVER OUR

FORECAST AREA. QPF FOR THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE UNDER WARNING RANGE

BUT WILL BE ATTENDED TO CLOSELY IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

COLD AIR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW

WILL BE COLD ENOUGH...-14C TO -16C ON ECMWF AND -14C TO -18C ON

GFS...TO PRODUCE A LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE AND WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE

LAND WOULD SET UP A CONVERGENCE REGION AND AN AREA OF SNOW ALONG THE

SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE TO INLAND CENTRAL NY. GFS SHOWS A SECONDARY

TROUGH WITH THE COLD AIR...ECMWF IS MORE RIDGED WITH ONLY A HINT OF

A TROUGH. WILL GO WITH LOW LIKELY POPS WANING TO CHANCE POPS LATE

WED NIGHT.

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How's the weather in the Buffalo area? We are holding on to snow up here in Toronto. Looking forward to the next system when we can all share in the snow! Hoping for one last blast of cross polar air too to get this month's mean temperature down so we can have every winter month finish out below normal temperature wise.

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How's the weather in the Buffalo area? We are holding on to snow up here in Toronto. Looking forward to the next system when we can all share in the snow! Hoping for one last blast of cross polar air too to get this month's mean temperature down so we can have every winter month finish out below normal temperature wise.

 

Light rain last few hours, should continue all night. Maybe a changeover to snow on the back end.

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I see it now, wow that's weird. If you go to weatherunderground's Euro my totals are correct. Might be some initialization problems on weatherbell.

Yea there is definitely something wrong with their maps, i just checked wunderground too.. good thing i'm not paying for their bs subscription lol

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Yea there is definitely something wrong with their maps, i just checked wunderground too.. good thing i'm not paying for their bs subscription lol

 

haha! Euro shows nearly 1 inch qpf just southeast of here. Definitely warning criteria snows all over WNY. Still lots of model watching to do but it looks promising. The NAM is so far northwest, it still makes me worry with mixing issues. But that is the outlier with this. GFS has a 6-8 inch snowfall similar to the GGEM.

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haha! Euro shows nearly 1 inch qpf just southeast of here. Definitely warning criteria snows all over WNY. Still lots of model watching to do but it looks promising. The NAM is so far northwest, it still makes me worry with mixing issues. But that is the outlier with this. GFS has a 6-8 inch snowfall similar to the GGEM.

 

I don't think this is the first time WxBell maps have been off this winter. Nice to see the Euro with such a good solution. I definitely wouldn't worry about the NAM at this range, though.

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