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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Middle of Winter


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Very active time coming up synoptically the next 5-10 days. Nice discussion by the NWS this afternoon.

 

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT AS IT PASSES OVER OUR
REGION. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY REAL SYNOPTIC FORCING IN THE VCNTY OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BACKING OFF ON POPS
FROM CONTINUITY BY GOING WITH LOW CHC VALUES. AGAIN...SOME SUBTLE
ENHANCMENT EAST/NE OF BOTH LAKES WILL WARRANT A BIT HIGHER POPS.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OVER THE LENGTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ESTABLISH AN INVERTED TROUGH.
THIS SFC PRESSURE WEAKNESS WILL LATER SERVE AS A PATHWAY FOR WAVES
THAT WILL PLAY MORE MEANINGFUL ROLES IN OUR WEEKEND WEATHER. MAX
TMEPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
FREEEZING.

A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY EVENING...
THEN WILL START TO SHEAR OUT AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY A +100KT H25
JET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL END UP SENDING SEVERAL SFC
WAVES UP THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. TIMING THESE INITIAL WAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT...BUT EACH
ONE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF ENHANCED PCPN. THESE
RIPPLES SHOULD NOT PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THOUGH UNTIL
SATURDAY...SO GIVEN A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
DURING THE BULK OF THE NIGHT...WILL CUT BACK ON POPS AND ONLY USE
LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN TIER.

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE THE H925-H7
THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...WITH A STRONG BAROLCLINIC ZONE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE MID WESTERN STATES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE A 1000 MILE LONG
SWATH OF FAIRLY STEADY WINTRY PCPN...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE MIXED
WITH RAIN AND/OR SLEET ON ITS SOUTHERN EDGE. THE GFS PLACES THE AXIS
OF THE STEADY PCPN NEARLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WHILE THE OFTEN
MORE DEPENDABLE ECMWF HAS THE AXIS SOME 100 MILES FURTHER WEST. THE
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE P-TYPE. THE IAG FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR JUST SNOW...WITH AN INCREASING CHC FOR
RAIN OR SLEET TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE TREND OF THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TO
BRING THE MIXED PCPN FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...SO WILL USE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR PLACEMENT OF THE MIX. QPF
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO TENTHS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
BEING FOUND OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES (CLOSER TO LK ERIE AND SRN
ONTARIO).

THE AXIS OF THE STEADY PCPN WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MIXED PCPN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT CHANGING TO JUST SNOW. QPF IS FORECAST TO AVERAGE ANOTHER
QUARTER INCH OR SO...WHICH WOULD MAKE THIS A SOLID ADVISORY CRITERIA
EVENT. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...DO NOT SEE ENOUGH QPF OR IMPACT
(WEEKEND) TO WARRANT A WATCH. WILL COVER THIS SCENARIO IN THE HWO
PRODUCT.

 

THE NEXT BUNDLE OF ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM WILL EJECT OUT OF OLD
MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CORRESPONDING SFC LOW OVER SRN TEXAS AND
THE FAR WESTERN GULF WILL THEN CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN AS IT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WELL DEVELOPED 1000MB LOW WILL
BE CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SCENARIO
WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SHIELD OF STEADY SNOW THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

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Latest snowfall totals in WNY so far this year. Perrysburg should break 300 by the end of this winter. That has to be close to a record. =0

 

BATAVIA: 52.0"
BUFFALO NWS: 80.6"
COLDEN: 173.5"
FRANKLINVILLE: 63.0"
JAMESTOWN: 69.0"
LYNDONVILLE: 49.5"
NIAGARA FALLS: 48.8"
NORTH TONAWANDA: 42.3"
OLEAN: 36.5"
PERRYSBURG: 219.0"
PORTAGEVILLE: 37.0"
PORTLAND: 74.5"
SILVER SPRINGS: 85.4"
WALES: 123.1"
WARSAW: 147.1"
WELLSVILLE : 26.8"
YOUNGSTOWN: 53.7"

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Latest snowfall totals in WNY so far this year. Perrysburg should break 300 by the end of this winter. That has to be close to a record. =0

 

BATAVIA: 52.0"

BUFFALO NWS: 80.6"

COLDEN: 173.5"

FRANKLINVILLE: 63.0"

JAMESTOWN: 69.0"

LYNDONVILLE: 49.5"

NIAGARA FALLS: 48.8"

NORTH TONAWANDA: 42.3"

OLEAN: 36.5"

PERRYSBURG: 219.0"

PORTAGEVILLE: 37.0"

PORTLAND: 74.5"

SILVER SPRINGS: 85.4"

WALES: 123.1"

WARSAW: 147.1"

WELLSVILLE : 26.8"

YOUNGSTOWN: 53.7"

FWIW record for most snow in a season is 379.5 which was set back in 1979 in Hooker NY.

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Wow dude! That is an incredible video, I really should of taken the time to go up there today and filmed a 5-10 minute clip of that. Hopefully we get another opportunity with additional snow+wind.

you'll get stuck lol, 3ft drifts everywhere in the park, caught me by surprise..

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No way dude, i have 4 snows and all wheel drive. I never get stuck. I am an expert driving in the snow. ^_^

 

BTW how much snow did you get today out of the Lake Effect?

Hard to tell but i'd say close to an inch or so, btw unless you got it lifted you will have a hard time navigating thru, trust me lol.

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I'm jealous! we could be like that too over here if this lake wasn't frozen. :)

 

Yeah just upgraded to LES Warning. Bet Buffalo would have received 6-10 inches today if lake wasn't frozen. Solid SW wind for 6+ hours today.

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON COUNTY.* TIMING...THROUGH TONIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 7 INCHES.
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Thank God for Cuse basketball to keep me entertained during this frigid and dry winter. Seriously IDK how the heck we have over 60" this season. I don't remember one big lake effect or synoptic event to hit us. Those flurries must really add up over time.

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The midweek storm looks interesting for CNY. Could see a big snowstorm if the transfer is timed correctly. Otherwise it might just be a really nasty ice storm with major CAD across the region. Anything is better than the frigid and dry spell we appear to be finally leaving.

 

Edit: Tonight's ECM was very nice for all of upstate with the exception for the far northern areas. 12-16" everywhere within 50-75 miles of a Jamestown-Albany axis. Obviously things will change but this has the potential to be the region's best widespread synoptic storm since February 2011. The biggest concern would be this thing cutting west and producing a snow-ice-rain mess, but the GFS, GGEM, and ECM have all been consistent with a big storm of some kind in this timeframe for days now.

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The midweek storm looks interesting for CNY. Could see a big snowstorm if the transfer is timed correctly. Otherwise it might just be a really nasty ice storm with major CAD across the region. Anything is better than the frigid and dry spell we appear to be finally leaving.

 

Edit: Tonight's ECM was very nice for all of upstate with the exception for the far northern areas. 12-16" everywhere within 50-75 miles of a Jamestown-Albany axis. Obviously things will change but this has the potential to be the region's best widespread synoptic storm since February 2011. The biggest concern would be this thing cutting west and producing a snow-ice-rain mess, but the GFS, GGEM, and ECM have all been consistent with a big storm of some kind in this timeframe for days now.

Indeed!

ecmwf_qpf_th500_ma_25.pngecmwf_qpf_th500_ma_26.pngecmwf_qpf_th500_ma_27.pngecmwf_qpf_th500_ma_28.png

ecmwf_snow_24_ma_29.png

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Wow KART cashed in big time, what a winter for them!

Public Information Statement

Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text

000

NOUS41 KBUF 301555

PNSBUF

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-310355-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

1055 AM EST THU JAN 30 2014

**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...ERIE COUNTY...

5 NNE AMHERST 1.0 800 AM 1/30 COCORAHS

1 NW WILLIAMSVILLE 0.5 800 AM 1/30 COCORAHS

1 NW KENMORE 0.5 600 AM 1/30 COCORAHS

BUFFALO 0.3 700 AM 1/30 NWS OFFICE

3 NE CHEEKTOWAGA 0.3 700 AM 1/30 COCORAHS

ESE KENMORE 0.2 750 AM 1/30 COCORAHS

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...

WATERTOWN 26.7 700 AM 1/30 SOCIAL MEDIA

3 S THERESA 7.0 700 AM 1/30 COCORAHS

...LEWIS COUNTY...

BEAVER FALLS 10.0 730 AM 1/30 SOCIAL MEDIA

6 N CROGHAN 8.0 700 AM 1/30 COCORAHS

5 SSW HARRISVILLE 3.0 530 AM 1/30 COCORAHS

HIGHMARKET 2.2 331 AM 1/30 CO-OP OBSERVER

LOWVILLE 1.5 800 AM 1/30 SOCIAL MEDIA

1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE 1.0 500 AM 1/30 COCORAHS

...NIAGARA COUNTY...

1 NE LOCKPORT 0.7 700 AM 1/30 COCORAHS

1 NNE NORTH TONAWAND 0.5 700 AM 1/30 COCORAHS

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