Syrmax Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I need to pack this in. Gonna be a long day and night Wed! GFS came in lighter with qpf as usual but really unloads qpf in Central New England - though how much of that is snow is debatable. We're approaching NowCast time. I lived in ALB area for the back to back 20" snowstorms, Xmas 2002 and a week later in early Jan 2003, so that sort of made up for the 20 years of lousy snowstorms in SE CT. One winter (96/97?) we had a Trace snowfall for the entire frigging winter...just some sleet events. They've had much more luck since I left. Virga overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 GEM is quite a bit warmer. Actually a lot warmer than most other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 These are the type of dynamics that can pop short periods of 4-6"/hr. rates....like the snowbomb in SYR back in 1994...I think...2 hours of back to back 5"/hr. rates. I was working in Syracuse that day and from 10am till about noon is when that happened. everyone left work and crowded the roads it took me 6 hours to get to Camillus from downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 what is a good site for GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 gem doesnt concern me for rochester, buf, or syracuse (except south east of syr). the 0c 850 is more n to s as would be expected with a strong low of 982 over Mid East PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 No talk of thundersnow. I bet someone gets some in area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 No talk of thundersnow. I bet someone gets some in area tim, im not exactly sure where rochesret ny is. Can you tell me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 yeah, i've yet to see or hear thunder snow. And I've looked and listened believe you me- ive listened, even imagined it once or twice. could this be the one? I can only hope- and listen. upper dynamics look good. but i dont know. its kinda like a unicorn, unless yur Jim Cantore (who lives with a unicorn). then again, Mike Seidel is in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Somewhere between tired and giddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Is he really. We are on weather channel. I have seen it 3 times here in rochester. One was a eastside lake band about 5 years ago. One in 1993 and 1999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 tim, tell me you have access to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Dave, you need to drive up the 219 between OP and Springville during an early season intense LES event-- you'll experience thundersnow then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Dave, you need to drive up the 219 between OP and Springville during an early season intense LES event-- you'll experience thundersnow then. i always look at the springville and dayton snow reports with extreme jealousy. what a lucky area! i almost bought a property up on redfield reservoir. I should of- it would be worth more now. but there is NOTHING up there other than a bar and snow. wait. that was the worst decision of my entire life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 No. Wish I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 the other area in wny that get kooky snow is Warsaw hill in wyoming county. its like buf got 4", rochester got 1" and warsaw hill got 13" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 my best guess for the biggest snow totals: Warsaw (yep) 18", Bristol 22", Springwater 24". Rochester 14, Buf 12, Syr 17. Ithaca 7, bgm 5, somewhere in the dacks get 30 plus. oh and the rochester airport only observes 7.9. we have a problem with measurements this winter in kroc.... just ask ALL the local mets. Im concerned they might get violent. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 You only thinkin 14 for roc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 only 14? ha, ha. normally that would be great. high res and rapid refresh show the best totals just south of the nys thruway. but at this point nobody really knows. Rochester has BIG potential as do Syr and Buf. Id put rochester anywhere from 8-26. i know thats a huge spread. but with a frozen lake i don't know if LES will put us over the top or not. and with a jog to the south the best synoptic will be just south. If LES does occur and the storm bands go over us, then 18 plus will happen. if neither happen then 8-12 from the synoptic moisture. I wouldnt make much of a forecaster with that range. lol. if i had to forecast id be with most of our local mets. 10-16 with local 18plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Looks like low is north of wear modelling is placing it. Looks to be around st Louis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 low pressure drops dramatically are increasing in last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 it looks to go just south of pittsburgh. at 988. a near perfect track for all of WNY. still concerned with the northern most areas if Lake Effect is a bit less than normal due to frozen areas of Ontario. But anyway, we all get 1 foot. not bad. i really want to see the euro output for snowfall. with a blizzard warning i dont think the moderators would mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 a bit concerned that storm over the panhandle of florida is starting to steal moisture from our little friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 NMM and ARW are both cold and wet for CNY, 12-16 for Ithaca if they verify. It will all depend on where the R/S line stalls for a few hours at midday. Regardless, I expect the northern Finger Lakes to have the biggest accumulations. Could see up to 2 feet in Geneva and Seneca Falls. Edit: Here is the aforementioned map(NMM on left, ARW on right). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 And I'd like to know BUF's thinking of excluding Oswego Co....they look to be just as impressive with winds later in the day...especially the shoreline west of Oswego. We do not expect winds to be quite as strong in Oswego County, given the northeast wind direction. That should direct the strongest of the winds and most widespread blizzard conditions west of Oswego County. It will still be windy there with plenty of blowing and drifting, but worse conditions are expected farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 here is the lates euro totals. same as it always was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 just looked outside. Irondequoit has just changed to snow. Euro hold course, possible jog to the north maybe screwing our friend in Ithaca and our friends in Binghampton and albany. NWS has upped snow for Ithaca. if this comes out as progged it will be a major feather in the hat for NWS BUF for pulling the trigger on Blizzard warnings. Im sure there were some 'interesting' conversations about that one. The day crew left the evening crew some room to 'pull the trigger'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 06z NAM is a smidge colder and further south. Precip amounts aren't quite as insane as the 0z, but still over 2 feet for the Northern Finger Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 And I'd like to know BUF's thinking of excluding Oswego Co....they look to be just as impressive with winds later in the day...especially the shoreline west of Oswego. We do not expect winds to be quite as strong in Oswego County, given the northeast wind direction. That should direct the strongest of the winds and most widespread blizzard conditions west of Oswego County. It will still be windy there with plenty of blowing and drifting, but worse conditions are expected farther west. Hey, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 still rain here in Skaneateles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Rain here, 0.07" worth. Snow on ground 9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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