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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Middle of Winter

BuffaloWeather

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

I'd agree. BGM usually a bit more reserved, which is why i was shocked to see that snowfall map posted late this afternoon. I figured 10-14 was as high as they'd go.  Their CWA is really a mess with this one, mostly rain down in AVP while SYR and UCA get rocked.  BGM itself in no-mans land.

And I'd like to know BUF's thinking of excluding Oswego Co....they look to be just as impressive with winds later in the day...especially the shoreline west of Oswego.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted

I wonder if they will shut down the whole thruway?

From BUF to UCA they might as well.   

 

One virtue of Blizzard Warnings is they tend to be more eye-popping to the public and probably lead to better travel decisions by individuals.  After today's warmth, noone was thinking snow. I could see mayhem out there.

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted

And I'd like to know BUF's thinking of excluding Oswego Co....they look to be just as impressive with winds later in the day...especially the shoreline west of Oswego.

My guess is that as soon as any location upwind starts to experience true blizzard conditions, they will add several more counties.

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted

 

 

 

AS IF ALL OF THE ABOVE WERE NOT ENOUGH...THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE

GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TO

NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE WINDS LIKELY PEAKING

DURING THE TIME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN

THE NORTHERLY FETCH OFF OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...STRONGEST WINDS

CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE LAKESHORES SOUTH INTO THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR.

WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE

ACROSS THESE AREAS...INCLUDING THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO...AND

CONFIDENCE IN THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE SNOW FORECAST IS HIGH

ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE WINTER STORM WARNING. IT IS WORTH

NOTING THAT A GLANCE AT THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS

SYSTEM BEARS A VERY STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO THE MARCH 7 1999 STORM THAT

BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE ROCHESTER AREA ALONG WITH OTHER

PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...HAVE UPGRADED THE

CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE

FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTIONS AT THIS TIME ARE THE SOUTHERN TIER

COUNTIES OF WYOMING/CATTARAUGUS/ALLEGANY AS WELL AS THE NORTH

COUNTRY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL NOT BE

EXPOSED TO THE FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AS SUCH WINDS SHOULD NOT BE

QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A BLIZZARD WARNING. ALONG THIS

SAME VEIN THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES MAY REMAIN JUST

SHY OF BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA OF 35MPH. NONETHELESS...I DO NOT

WANT TO DOWNPLAY THE HAZARDS IN THESE AREAS AS THERE WILL STILL BE

HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL STILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY

HAZARDOUS...EVEN OUTSIDE THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREAS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY UNDER

STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE

TEENS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WIND CHILLS FALLING TO NEAR

ZERO. NEEDLESS TO SAY...ALL OF THIS WILL MAKE THIS AFTERNOON/S

RATHER MILD HIGH TEMPS SEEM LIKE A VERY DISTANT MEMORY...AND WILL

MAKE AN ALREADY MISERABLE DAY SEEM EVEN WORSE.

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rochesterdave

rochesterdave

Posted
Posted

This thing has me soo excited. i cant see any wrench in the works except a steep cutoff to the north of snow totals. if that pushed south 50 miles rochester and lake shore comunities could get less. but i dont see any sign of that. the model consistency (euro esp) has been just tremendous! Euro showed this 7 days ago!

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

From BGM:

 

1030 PM UPDATE...
ALL THINGS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR IMPENDING WINTER STORM. STRONG
H5 TROF DIGGING THRU PLAINS STATES AT THIS TIME WITH 998MB SFC LOW
NOW SITTING ACRS THE OZARKS. LGT ECHOES ARE BREAKING OUT IN AREA
OF RRQ OF UL JET STREAK CURRENTLY MVG THRU SRN CANADA. HWVR, WITH
LOWEST 200-300MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY, ONLY AN OCNL SPIT CAN
SNEAK THRU, THUS HV KEPT TONIGHT DRY THRU 06Z WHEN UPGLIDE
COMMENCES ON 285K LYR AND MOST OF THE FA BREAKS OUT IN
PRECIPITATION.

ACRS THE FAR NORTH, LATEST NAM HAS H9 TEMPS ABV 0C FM 06Z-09Z THEN
QUICKLY DROPPING BLO ZERO. THUS HV GONE WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACRS NRN ZONES THRU 09Z BFR BCMG ALL SNOW.

WL LV THE FINER DETAILS TO LATER SHIFTS ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER
WHEN MORE MODELS ARE AVAILABLE, HWVR 00Z NAM AS WELL AS 12Z EURO
INDICATED WED BTWN 18Z AND 00Z WL BE PRIMETIME FOR HEAVIEST SNOW
TO FALL IN AN ONEIDA TO YATES LINE WITH LATEST NAM INDICATING UP
TO 1 INCH OF QPF IN THIS TIME. WHILE THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE,
CANNOT RULE OUT 0.6 TO 0.7 INCHES THAT WPC IS FCST DRG THIS TIME.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THIS AREA IS IN THE COUPLED JET LOCATION
OF 250MB SPEED MAXES AND ALSO IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FRCG.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
  • Author
Posted

 

 

 

 

AS IF ALL OF THE ABOVE WERE NOT ENOUGH...THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE

GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TO

NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE WINDS LIKELY PEAKING

DURING THE TIME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN

THE NORTHERLY FETCH OFF OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...STRONGEST WINDS

CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE LAKESHORES SOUTH INTO THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR.

WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE

ACROSS THESE AREAS...INCLUDING THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO...AND

CONFIDENCE IN THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE SNOW FORECAST IS HIGH

ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE WINTER STORM WARNING. IT IS WORTH

NOTING THAT A GLANCE AT THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS

SYSTEM BEARS A VERY STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO THE MARCH 7 1999 STORM THAT

BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE ROCHESTER AREA ALONG WITH OTHER

PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...HAVE UPGRADED THE

CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE

FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTIONS AT THIS TIME ARE THE SOUTHERN TIER

COUNTIES OF WYOMING/CATTARAUGUS/ALLEGANY AS WELL AS THE NORTH

COUNTRY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL NOT BE

EXPOSED TO THE FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AS SUCH WINDS SHOULD NOT BE

QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A BLIZZARD WARNING. ALONG THIS

SAME VEIN THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES MAY REMAIN JUST

SHY OF BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA OF 35MPH. NONETHELESS...I DO NOT

WANT TO DOWNPLAY THE HAZARDS IN THESE AREAS AS THERE WILL STILL BE

HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL STILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY

HAZARDOUS...EVEN OUTSIDE THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREAS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY UNDER

STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE

TEENS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WIND CHILLS FALLING TO NEAR

ZERO. NEEDLESS TO SAY...ALL OF THIS WILL MAKE THIS AFTERNOON/S

RATHER MILD HIGH TEMPS SEEM LIKE A VERY DISTANT MEMORY...AND WILL

MAKE AN ALREADY MISERABLE DAY SEEM EVEN WORSE.

 

 

The 24.3" of snow that fell in Rochester, NY on March 3-4, 1999 was the second greatest snowfall in a 24-hour period. The record, 29.8", occurred in March 1900. The near record snowfall fell during a 15 hour period starting at 11:00 PM Wednesday March 3rd through 2:00 PM Thursday March 4th, 1999. The snowfall was caused by an ususually strong late winter storm . The storm produced snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour. The winds were also very strong with gusty northwest winds as high as 45 mph and produced blizzard conditions at the Rochester airport for a 7 hour period from 5:00 AM until 12:00 PM on March 4th, 1999. The greater Rochester area on average experienced snowfall amounts in the 20-25 inch range.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted

From BGM:

 

1030 PM UPDATE...

ALL THINGS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR IMPENDING WINTER STORM. STRONG

H5 TROF DIGGING THRU PLAINS STATES AT THIS TIME WITH 998MB SFC LOW

NOW SITTING ACRS THE OZARKS. LGT ECHOES ARE BREAKING OUT IN AREA

OF RRQ OF UL JET STREAK CURRENTLY MVG THRU SRN CANADA. HWVR, WITH

LOWEST 200-300MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY, ONLY AN OCNL SPIT CAN

SNEAK THRU, THUS HV KEPT TONIGHT DRY THRU 06Z WHEN UPGLIDE

COMMENCES ON 285K LYR AND MOST OF THE FA BREAKS OUT IN

PRECIPITATION.

ACRS THE FAR NORTH, LATEST NAM HAS H9 TEMPS ABV 0C FM 06Z-09Z THEN

QUICKLY DROPPING BLO ZERO. THUS HV GONE WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW

MIX ACRS NRN ZONES THRU 09Z BFR BCMG ALL SNOW.

WL LV THE FINER DETAILS TO LATER SHIFTS ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER

WHEN MORE MODELS ARE AVAILABLE, HWVR 00Z NAM AS WELL AS 12Z EURO

INDICATED WED BTWN 18Z AND 00Z WL BE PRIMETIME FOR HEAVIEST SNOW

TO FALL IN AN ONEIDA TO YATES LINE WITH LATEST NAM INDICATING UP

TO 1 INCH OF QPF IN THIS TIME. WHILE THIS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE,

CANNOT RULE OUT 0.6 TO 0.7 INCHES THAT WPC IS FCST DRG THIS TIME.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THIS AREA IS IN THE COUPLED JET LOCATION

OF 250MB SPEED MAXES AND ALSO IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST

FRONTOGENETICAL FRCG.

I had to google where Yates is...pleasantly surprised to see we are along that line...

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted

21 year anniversary of the Superstorm of 1993....nice celebration!

I lived in SE CT for that one. I managed to find one of the very few screw holes in a 1500 mile radius.  5" then sleet then dryslot and light rain.  30 miles NW was around 18" and almost all snow.  Not heading to parent's near BGM was one of my top 5 worst decisions ever made. ;)

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

I lived in SE CT for that one. I managed to find one of the very few screw holes in a 1500 mile radius.  5" then sleet then dryslot and light rain.  30 miles NW was around 18" and almost all snow.  Not heading to parent's near BGM was one of my top 5 worst decisions ever made. ;)

I was in Parish...actually got "screwed" with 22"...areas just north and south had near 40"....banding was great...I just was stuck between two.

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rochesterdave

rochesterdave

Posted
Posted

i got screwed with 24" for that one. big one for rochester was double barrel in march 99. 24 and 20 in three days leading to 43"! BTW the GFS came in modestly stronger for snowfall across thruway communities. 16" for Roc vs Nam 27". somewhere inbetween would be just dandy. again, the consistency is just unbelievable! I keep waiting for a model to 'go off reservation', but it just aint happening. it is just about time for nowcasting and short term meso models. speaking of that i wonder what the nam 4k shows? I'm a bit of a model junky if you haven't noticed.

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