BuffaloWeather Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I am always grateful to the mets on the board but any reasoning to this would be grateful and what are the chances Oswego County gets in on the upgrade later? I get the 1/4 mile stuff for 3+ hours. Want a blizzard warning for my backyard bad. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 DP's are lower in CNY than Western NY. I know they will come up some but wondering. Radar returns are pressing southeast of us, Does this mean colder air is pushing more south on us? Could be we were clear longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Congrats to my neighbors in western New York. Enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Congrats to my neighbors in western New York. Enjoy it! Buffalo just issued Blizzard Warnings...WOW After not having one for 20 years, 2 of them in two months. 1977, 1985, 1993, two in 2014!! It's pretty crazy to think we are beating the odds of what use to be a once in a decade event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 SREF Mean: 25 inches Lowest Member: 14 inches. Lock it in! Latest 15z one only has 23" but i will gladly take it if it verifies lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Wonder if BGM will pull the trigger for some CNY counties for tomorrow into tomorrow night. North winds tend to blow pretty good in these parts, off the lake plain, and one thing nobody has mentioned is the ice over the eastern part of L. Ontario, which will have snow falling on it, and then will get picked up and deposited SSE off the lake as the winds shift to the NNW later tomorrow...a rarity around these parts, but Buffalo, ala 1977 is familiar with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 You nailed it earlier lets hope for a repeat. I am like Homer Simpson right now(some booze and saliva). Staying up for NAM which is not saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 You nailed it earlier lets hope for a repeat. I am like Homer Simpson right now(some booze and saliva). Staying up for NAM which is not saying much. Forget about the NAM it's nowcast time baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 NAM looks a bit colder over CNY. The 850 line has adopted a more sw-ne orientation than a w-e one on recent runs. If that trend continues then Ithaca could be just west enough to get more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 21Z SREF trended warmer -- things not looking up in Ithaca. We will not see 14 inches and at this point we would be lucky if we get 8 in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 NAM looks a bit colder over CNY. The 850 line has adopted a more sw-ne orientation than a w-e one on recent runs. If that trend continues then Ithaca could be just west enough to get more snow. It depends where the orientation becomes sw-ne. If Ithaca ends up on the wrong side of that line, our snow amounts will suffer severely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 LOL Hey Now! Well that's something. I'm always skeptical of the B Warning after seeing them mostly not verify elsewhere, particularly in storms affecting NYC, LI, SNE and the MA over the past several years. Always seems like hype in the end. Though, I can believe right along the water Blizzard conditions are most likely to verify. Been in many Lake Storms near Oswego that were flat out blizzards right on the lake where I used to work (based on met tower obs). In the end, even if strict definition conditions aren't met, the sensible difference is nil if you're close. I have to check myself...Only on weather boards would dork talk like this ever happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Hey Now! Well that's something. I'm always skeptical of the B Warning after seeing them mostly not verify elsewhere, particularly in storms affecting NYC, LI, SNE and the MA over the past several years. Always seems like hype in the end. Though, I can believe right along the water Blizzard conditions are most likely to verify. Been in many Lake Storms near Oswego that were flat out blizzards right on the lake where I used to work (based on met tower obs). In the end, even if strict definition conditions aren't met, the sensible difference is nil if you're close. I have to check myself...Only on weather boards would dork talk like this ever happen. Buffalo doesn't put Blizzard warnings into place until they definitely feel they will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 21Z SREF trended warmer -- things not looking up in Ithaca. We will not see 14 inches and at this point we would be lucky if we get 8 in my opinion. You nailed it earlier lets hope for a repeat. I am like Homer Simpson right now(some booze and saliva). Staying up for NAM which is not saying much. I think Phoenix packs it in for the day if Blizzard warnings are hoisted. Otherwise, I could see a half day. Problem is, half day runs the risk of sending everyone home when its ripping, because I think this may get heavy fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Buffalo doesn't put Blizzard warnings into place until they definitely feel they will occur. We'll see. I'll be watching....o.O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 GGEM and Euro maintain large hit for most of this forum in a week. Still in lala land. The Euro was pretty strong with this storm all things considered. 7 days... Nice read Buffalo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Look at that NAM 24 hour sfc panel. Sweet Geeziz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Buffalo doesn't put Blizzard warnings into place until they definitely feel they will occur. Agree with this, i just checked the one we had back in early January and we verified blizzard conditions over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Look at that NAM 24 hour sfc panel. Sweet Geeziz. I bet BGM caves for Onondaga Co. for Bliz warnings....the increasing winds and ratios later in the day will seal the deal....and I think it is a bit easier, since BUF already pulled the trigger.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Holy Sh_t! Puts out 15 to 20 easy in a very short period of time. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It depends where the orientation becomes sw-ne. If Ithaca ends up on the wrong side of that line, our snow amounts will suffer severely. Yup. We're going to be balancing on the razor's edge for the first half of the storm. If the line sets up just to the NW then we only get the 4-6 from the backside, if it goes directly overhead 6-8, probably over a foot if it stops just to the SE. Unfortunate that this turned out to be a daytime storm with that March sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Haha, don't worry you know I will be documenting it. =) Holding you to this since I'm stuck in PA until tomorrow afternoon. Drive home tomorrow evening up the 219 could be interesting (assuming it's open...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Holy Sh_t! Puts out 15 to 20 easy in a very short period of time. Wow. Could be some insane rates for a while! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 The Euro was pretty strong with this storm all things considered. 7 days... Nice read Buffalo.. They did remarkably well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Agree with this, i just checked the one we had back in early January and we verified blizzard conditions over and over again. Check my youtube channel. Was the worst storm I've ever experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 NAM 36hr qpf: #pimpin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 00z NAM puts a speck of 2" qpf near Canadaigua Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 NAM 36hr qpf: #pimpin 00z NAM puts a speck of 2" qpf near Canadaigua LOL i was just going to post that haha.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I bet BGM caves for Onondaga Co. for Bliz warnings....the increasing winds and ratios later in the day will seal the deal....and I think it is a bit easier, since BUF already pulled the trigger.... I'd agree. BGM usually a bit more reserved, which is why i was shocked to see that snowfall map posted late this afternoon. I figured 10-14 was as high as they'd go. Their CWA is really a mess with this one, mostly rain down in AVP while SYR and UCA get rocked. BGM itself in no-mans land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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