Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Gradient on the latest NAM is insane. 25 miles between 2 feet and 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I fully expect BGM to extend WSW's to the south (by a county or two) and to broaden their snowfall forecast of 10-14" significantly, with an introduction of some spotty 14-18" regions, sometime today. Nailed it!!! Except "spotty 14-18" turned into "swath of" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Nice call George! Someone at work this morning asked me what I thought we would get for snow...16" was my rectal pluck! (now lets hope I don't look the fool, or more than the usual amount...). 18Z NAM again going full bathsalts with qpf. If only it was real. Noone here at work believing the forecast given today's mildness. I showed them the updated map and just stupified looks...frankly, I share them. Hard to believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Nice call George! Someone at work this morning asked me what I thought we would get for snow...16" was my rectal pluck! (now lets hope I don't look the fool, or more than the usual amount...). 18Z NAM again going full bathsalts with qpf. If only it was real. Noone here at work believing the forecast given today's mildness. I showed them the updated map and just stupified looks...frankly, I share them. Hard to believe... My boss is literally crying....She hates winter....so she's been hatin' for awhile!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 BTW, I still think SYR won't deviate too much from 12"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Gradient on the latest NAM is insane. 25 miles between 2 feet and 2 inches. I can't tell where Ithaca is. It is too close! We do do slightly worse on this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 My boss is literally crying....She hates winter....so she's been hatin' for awhile!!! hating winter and living in CNY...#losing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 ON WEDNESDAY...THINGS WILL DRAMATICALLY TURN FOR THE WORSE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...WITH A STRONG SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE LOW-MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE...AND BOTH OF THESE OVERLAID BY A PRONOUNCED COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND ATTENDANT ZONE OF STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ALSO IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO COMING INTO PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL ADD UP TO A WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL AREAWIDE...WITH THE WORST OF THE SNOW GENERALLY COMING BETWEEN THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6-11 INCHES...WITH THE LOWEST ACCUMS NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG THE NY/PA LINE...AND THE HIGHEST OVERALL AMOUNTS COMING IN AREAS OF FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. CLOSER TO THE NEW YORK-PENNSYLVANIA BORDER...A WINTRY MIX TO START THE DAY WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN A TENTH OR TWO OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BEFORE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DRIVES A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. AS IF ALL OF THE ABOVE WERE NOT ENOUGH...THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE WINDS LIKELY PEAKING DURING THE TIME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THAT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL EXTREMELY DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE. THE WORST CONDITIONS OF ALL WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE NIAGARA-OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED FURTHER BY LAKE ONTARIO...AND COULD WELL REACH 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 45 MPH...WHICH IF REALIZED WOULD RESULT IN NEAR-TO-OUTRIGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THIS STRIP OF COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...WE TOYED WITH UPGRADING THESE COUNTIES TO A BLIZZARD WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW GIVEN THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT SEEN IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE...WHICH IF IT WERE TO CONTINUE WOULD RESULT IN LOWER WIND SPEEDS AND A SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THREAT FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THIS STATED... SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL... AS AN UPGRADE MAY STILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY DEPENDENT UPON FURTHER POSSIBLE SHIFTS IN THE STORM TRACK...HOWEVER SLIGHT THESE MAY BE. STAY TUNED! OTHERWISE...EXPECT FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WIND CHILLS FALLING TO NEAR ZERO. NEEDLESS TO SAY...ALL OF THIS WILL MAKE THIS AFTERNOON/S RATHER MILD HIGH TEMPS SEEM LIKE A VERY DISTANT MEMORY...AND WILL MAKE AN ALREADY MISERABLE DAY SEEM EVEN WORSE. -- End Disscussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 SREF Plume means are off the charts, have to have some feedback problems or something. Buffalo: 24 inches Rochester: 26 inches Syracuse: 24 inches Albany: 14 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Anybody know meteorologically why the GFS(18Z) introduces drying to cut back on QPF on back end? Looked kind of goofy. Dropped maybe .25 to .40 liquid. Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 So, the real question is: How amped does this system get and how quickly? How are the models verifying so far with the shortwave involved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Anybody know meteorologically why the GFS(18Z) introduces drying to cut back on QPF on back end? Looked kind of goofy. Dropped maybe .25 to .40 liquid. Just curious. faster mover...less well-developed mid-level centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 faster mover...less well-developed mid-level centers. Yep Definitely not as amped. You think Niagara frontier gets some 12+ totals? Is it reliant upon mesoscale banding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Anybody know meteorologically why the GFS(18Z) introduces drying to cut back on QPF on back end? Looked kind of goofy. Dropped maybe .25 to .40 liquid. Just curious. Here's my #smartass answer: cuz its the 18Z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Here's my #smartass answer: cuz its the 18Z GFS? Hope so! I am thinking widespread 12 to 18 from rt. 20 north. We shall see. Excited to see what school districts decide. Expecting many to close early and may have many closed on Thursday. Not that I need another day off! Not sure if the big one can do an early dismissal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Hope so! I am thinking widespread 12 to 18 from rt. 20 north. We shall see. Excited to see what school districts decide. Expecting many to close early and may have many closed on Thursday. Not that I need another day off! Not sure if the big one can do an early dismissal. Many schools in the Rochester area have already pre-emptively closed for tomorrow, which I think is a very smart decision. It's always a disaster when they try to send the kids home early. I think things should be pretty cleared up by Thursday AM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Many schools in the Rochester area have already pre-emptively closed for tomorrow, which I think is a very smart decision. It's always a disaster when they try to send the kids home early. I think things should be pretty cleared up by Thursday AM though. Your sitting in a perfect spot for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 ARW came way south at 12z, Ithaca gets 1.2" QPF of snow instead of 0.1" at 0z. UKMET went south as well. Yea, the fact the 4km WRF guidance is significantly further south is interesting because since they are convective permitting models they won't have the adverse effects of convective feedback that often occurs in highly dynamic situations. We are dealing with significant convection that will likely develop over the next few hours over MO and points eastward, so watching to see how the global model guidance performs relative to reality. So far they are a little behind convective initiation in MO (by around 2 hours or so)... Things are just firing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Yea, the fact the 4km WRF guidance is significantly further south is interesting because since they are convective permitting models they won't have the adverse effects of convective feedback that often occurs in highly dynamic situations. We are dealing with significant convection that will likely develop over the next few hours over MO and points eastward, so watching to see how the global model guidance performs relative to reality. So far they are a little behind convective initiation in MO (by around 2 hours or so)... Things are just firing right now. It will be interesting to see how intense this convection can get and whether it can drag the surface low south (shudder)... The midwest looks like a powder keg on radar, I'm just waiting for the whole thing to fill in before our eyes in the next few hours.. The area around NW missouri has some interesting returns right now. Anyway, this storm is going to be so damn fun to watch. I've been dreaming of storm tracks like this since the early 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 One thing I've noticed is that SFC dewpoints across pretty much all of MO were overforecasted between 2-5 degrees F. This probably explains for the late convective initiation since it would have required more dynamical lifting to reach parcels to the to a higher LCL. It also has implications on how much convection develops tonight, with a less expansive convective shield favoring a weaker surface cyclone (perhaps more in line with the recent 18z guidence vs. the 12z deterministic ECMWF). Still an exceptionally difficult forecast given the extreme gradient of both precipitation and temperatures forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Excited to be in Rochester for this event. Think they will do better than BUF but you never know. Btw Dave, I greatly enjoy watching Josh Nichols here on channel 10 I believe. He's a great meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 One thing I've noticed is that SFC dewpoints across pretty much all of MO were overforecasted between 2-5 degrees F. This probably explains for the late convective initiation since it would have required more dynamical lifting to reach parcels to the to a higher LCL. It also has implications on how much convection develops tonight, with a less expansive convective shield favoring a weaker surface cyclone (perhaps more in line with the recent 18z guidence vs. the 12z deterministic ECMWF). Still an exceptionally difficult forecast given the extreme gradient of both precipitation and temperatures forecasted. Interesing observation, that equates to a significant loss of energy to get things started... I'm just waiting to watch the primary interact with that huge swath of moisture coming out of the gulf. The realtime meso analysis will be a great tool to watch everything unfold tonight. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Excited to be in Rochester for this event. Think they will do better than BUF but you never know. Btw Dave, I greatly enjoy watching Josh Nichols here on channel 10 I believe. He's a great meteorologist. You're doing quite well this winter. You've gotten rocked in Buffalo and now you might be in the sweet spot again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Blizzard warnings just went up for counties to the west of me WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Blizzard warnings just went up for counties to the west of me WOW. Oh How I've longed for this moment!! Hell YEAH For posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Oh How I've longed for this moment!! Hell YEAH For posterity buf.png WOW WOOWOWOWOWOWOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katodog Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 blizzard warning here finally its about time thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 we don't do Blizzard warnings up here. We leave that for NWS in NYC and New England, where virtually none of them verify... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 LOL Buffalo just issued Blizzard Warnings...WOW After not having one for 20 years, 2 of them in two months. 1977, 1985, 1993, two in 2014!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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