Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Another thing...looking at thermal profiles, yes the snow will start out as "heavy" w/ higher moisture content (BUF/ROC/SYR) but by mid way thru storm, temps crash. Now I know temps alone don't tell the tale for ratios, and i don't know if best UVV and snow growth regions align, but at least half this storm could be higher ratio'd. I've seen discussion about how it sooooo warm now, therefore it'll be a heavy wet snow. Maybe not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutch Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 seeing the chance for warm air aloft, how will higher elevations be affected south of the thruway? most times it's a plus for us, and we get much more than lower areas surrounding us, but, we could be close to some mixing so would higher elev have an impact? (1400 ft IMBY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 GFS is a degree or so warmer vs. 06z run at 850 at h24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The RGEM, which was the northern outlier, shifted considerably south with its 12z run. Edit: The GGEM jumped south as well. Ithaca is now the battleground for the first half of the storm on virtually every model. The second half looks good for everyone now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the minister Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 And I'm 20 miles south of Ithaca! This could truly go either way. I'm at 1,600 feet elevation, so that will definitely help I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Anyone use tap talk app to view this site? Good or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Latest visible satellite seems to show that the modest slush ice Ontario has dissipated or been pushed further East. Looks like a lot of open water for enhancement along almost the entire south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 SREF Mean: 25 inches Lowest Member: 14 inches. Lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the minister Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 We will all take that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Doesn't look like Albany will need snow shovels tomorrow. Then what's left here turns to concrete at night with a few inches of wet snow on top. I'll do a bit better in the hills to the west, but it still looks like a big mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Yeah, ENY tends to get skunked when WNY and CNY get hit, unless you are in far NENY. Its OK, they can enjoy a synoptic threat for a change. This should be a doozy for them too. That rain/snow line is going to be oh so close to me too here in the Saratoga area. One of these days Upstate will get hit hard again. I think its been since VDay 2007 since Upstate (Eastern NY Upstate anyway) has been hit the hardest in a storm. Most of them just keep missing us to the East and SE. Doesn't look like Albany will need snow shovels tomorrow. Then what's left here turns to concrete at night with a few inches of wet snow on top. I'll do a bit better in the hills to the west, but it still looks like a big mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 ARW came way south at 12z, Ithaca gets 1.2" QPF of snow instead of 0.1" at 0z. UKMET went south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the minister Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Thanks for the update Gravity...loving the late trend here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 ARW came way south at 12z, Ithaca gets 1.2" QPF of snow instead of 0.1" at 0z. UKMET went south as well. For sheets and giggles, the WRF-NMM has SYR near 3" of qpf....presumably all snow....cut that by 2/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Huh. The Euro is the only model not to come south at 12z. Carbon copy of its 0z run. 3-6 BGM, 10-12 ITH, 12-18 along the thruway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Huh. The Euro is the only model not to come south at 12z. Carbon copy of its 0z run. 3-6 BGM, 10-12 ITH, 12-18 along the thruway. It does not give that much to Ithaca. It trended a bit warmer. I would say 6-9 for ITH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Don't know about snow but damn it feels like summer here today. Temps is 48 wow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Definitely warmer, but wow...what a dumping for NNY, Northern VT and NW Maine! It does not give that much to Ithaca. It trended a bit warmer. I would say 6-9 for ITH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Don't know about snow but damn it feels like summer here today. Temps is 48 wow lol. And with 850's falling to near -22C Thurs. morn. and 25mph winds, it will once again feel like deep winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 It does not give that much to Ithaca. It trended a bit warmer. I would say 6-9 for ITH. We must be using different programs then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 KBUF shifted the heaviest snowfall map a little south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 The Euro went a bit north than any of its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Could someone post euro output? Or any qpf maps, I can't get them now. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 70% chance of 12+ across Niagara Frontier to Rochester. First time I've seen that for WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 70% over 12"!!!! I saw it once before. Valentines day storm. I think Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 70% over 12"!!!! I saw it once before. Valentines day storm. I think Sent from my iPhone Nice, did it verify? What year was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 KBuf lock and loaded. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 12-16 INCHES ARE NOW EXPECTED IN MOSTAREAS WITH SOME 18 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF LAKEONTARIO INCLUDING THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENTWILL DEVELOP. IF THE CURRENT PTYPE FORECAST HOLDS…AMOUNTS WILL BECONSIDERABLY LOWER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE. HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES MAYREACH OR EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR LOCALLY IN ANY MESOSCALE BANDINGTHAT DEVELOPS. SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONWITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE OR EVENUPRIGHT CONVECTION. SOME MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW AS MUCH AS80J/KG OF CAPE FOR PARCELS ROOTED IN THE 700MB LAYER. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONAND EVENING PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEARBLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES…ESPECIALLY WITHIN 20 MILES OF THESOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like we'll be mostly rain here in ALB. Good luck to those in CNY and WNY, should be a fun storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 18z NAM is OD'ing on Xanax....Does it always think a cyclone is supposed to produce TC type qpf??? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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