tim123 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 East sider in roc. Yes I usually feel more confident about model.qpf in march with snowstorms. Time of year.where you have such good.atmospheric mixing and dynamics. March is the month for big ones in rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 sure is pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 East sider in roc. Yes I usually feel more confident about model.qpf in march with snowstorms. Time of year.where you have such good.atmospheric mixing and dynamics. March is the month for big ones in rochester since 91, all the big snowstorms for rochester have been in march or late february. we have had some big january totals but they are all lake effect. this time of year seems to be primed for big synoptic systems that don't skip their energy to the coast as is usual earlier in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 since 91, all the big snowstorms for rochester have been in march or late february. we have had some big january totals but they are all lake effect. this time of year seems to be primed for big synoptic systems that don't skip their energy to the coast as is usual earlier in the season. That's because March is a transition month and the overall pattern goes from progressive cold with a dominant northern jet to a more amplified pattern that allows the southern jet to come into play. Mets can correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro looks about the same, maybe a tad north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Whats euro show for qpf. Looks about 50 miles north of 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro moves north but incrementally. locked in more or less. areas from NE Ohio, NW PA, all of WNY and CNY need to prepare for a BIG SNOWSTORM. Maybe not a blizzard, but the snowtotals don't care about symantecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Whats euro show for qpf. Looks about 50 miles north of 12z run MASSIVE hit from euro for Buffalo/Rochester. 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Is that from qpf totals or just a guess of off map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 978 over lehigh valley. perfect set up for all of WNY!! somebodys gonna see two feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Anyone have euro text.output for roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 WOW. The 06Z NAM just jumped south, slower, colder, and slightly weaker. Ithaca never goes over to rain, and only goes over to sleet for a few hours of light precip as the low passes by to the south. The low passes just to the north of Philly at 982.5 mb instead of over Scranton at 980.2 mb. Edit: Here is the snowmap. Over a foot for Ithaca and well over 2 feet for the thruway between Buffalo and Syracuse. RGEM is now the northern outlier by a good margin. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031106&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=057 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 WOW. The 06Z NAM just jumped south, slower, colder, and slightly weaker. Ithaca never goes over to rain, and only goes over to sleet for a few hours of light precip as the low passes by to the south. The low passes just to the north of Philly at 982.5 mb instead of over Scranton at 980.2 mb. Edit: Here is the snowmap. Over a foot for Ithaca and well over 2 feet for the thruway between Buffalo and Syracuse. RGEM is now the northern outlier by a good margin. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031106&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=057 Wow is right. Just checked out the NAM. Need to chill out a bit but OMG. Let's see what 12z brings on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 00z suite certainly halted/dampened a complete changeover thought scenario in the SYR and points north. Mixing may take place tomorrow morning, but certainly by afternoon, those issues would wane rapidly as well. I think the jackpot for W/C NY is going to be the southern L. Ontario lakeshore between BUF and ROC. BTW, it's nice to have a coming together of the normally polarized W. and C. NY'ers during LES events! A system that looks to significantly impact us all (for the most part)...Hopefully our S. Tier friends don't get too much warming, and we all get 8+" with some of us getting deep into double digits! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Holy ****. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 12-16 INCHES ARE NOW EXPECTED IN MOSTAREAS WITH SOME 18 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF LAKEONTARIO INCLUDING THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENTWILL DEVELOP. IF THE CURRENT PTYPE FORECAST HOLDS...AMOUNTS WILL BECONSIDERABLY LOWER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE. HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES MAYREACH OR EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR LOCALLY IN ANY MESOSCALE BANDINGTHAT DEVELOPS. SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONWITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE OR EVENUPRIGHT CONVECTION. SOME MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW AS MUCH AS80J/KG OF CAPE FOR PARCELS ROOTED IN THE 700MB LAYER.NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONAND EVENING PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEARBLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 20 MILES OF THESOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THROUGH THE 20S AND INTO THE TEENS DURINGTHE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFEW SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY DROPTO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY THURSDAY MORNING.ON THURSDAY ANY LEFTOVER WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION SNOW EAST OF LAKEONTARIO IN THE MORNING WILL TAPER OFF. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILLSTILL BE LIKELY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ESPECIALLYDURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THIS MAY ADD A FEW MORE INCHES INSOME SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FRIGID BY MID MARCH STANDARDS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID TEENS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONSAND POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS ON THE HILLS. ITWILL REMAIN QUITE WINDY WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ONGOINGESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 00z suite certainly halted/dampened a complete changeover thought scenario in the SYR and points north. Mixing may take place tomorrow morning, but certainly by afternoon, those issues would wane rapidly as well. I think the jackpot for W/C NY is going to be the southern L. Ontario lakeshore between BUF and ROC. BTW, it's nice to have a coming together of the normally polarized W. and C. NY'ers during LES events! A system that looks to significantly impact us all (for the most part)...Hopefully our S. Tier friends don't get too much warming, and we all get 8+" with some of us getting deep into double digits! About time we are due here in upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 About time we are due here in upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Latest model snowfall output. 03z SREF mean 6z NAM: 6z GFS: BUF:20.73" 24.1" 17.9" ROC:22.72" 36.6" 20.4" SYR:17.17" 26.5" 17.6" ITH:11.34" 17.0" 8.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 It's been a while since we've seen anything like that. I'd probably be fine with half of any of those totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katodog Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 why does some weather places her say 8-12 and accuweather says 6-12? they say more rain in the morning than models say thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Holy ****. That's the best forecast discussion for a synoptic system I can ever remember. (For this area at least) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 That's the best forecast discussion for a synoptic system I can ever remember. (For this area at least) This seems like the ideal scenario for a major synoptic system in WNY. Having the cold air attack a strengthening low pressure vs. the other way around....where we have a storm attacking a deep cold air mass. The latter usually seem to underachieve in our area. Nice pre-spring morning today with mild temps. You wouldn't know a big snow event was lurking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Grats to all of you. I am originally from Buffalo (lots of family still there), but now live in Lancaster, PA. Looks like a great setup for you guys. Having seen many storms down here, always glad to see when the hometown gets bombarded as well (my mom will be less than pleased). If it was on a weekend, I would drive up just to enjoy. I just can't ever seem to get enough of the white stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 All systems go...10-15" region wide...lollies near ROC and points west...Dack's crushed (20"+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 12Z NAM shifted south again, although surface temps didn't follow suit this time. Gives Ithaca a foot again but the R/S line is either overhead or 5 miles to the south for the entire storm. Hopefully this trend continues for a while longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 All systems go...10-15" region wide...lollies near ROC and points west...Dack's crushed (20"+) Looking good for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looking good for once! Kinda forgot what it feels like...hence the trepidation over the past day!... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Kinda forgot what it feels like...hence the trepidation over the past day!... Never sweat the 18Z NAM output! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I fully expect BGM to extend WSW's to the south (by a county or two) and to broaden their snowfall forecast of 10-14" significantly, with an introduction of some spotty 14-18" regions, sometime today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 12z NAM even has me pushing a foot...guidance has been a nightmare here in Upstate ENY...anything from nothing but slop on the front and back ends, to over a foot. Euro ran warm last night so we'll see what today brings. Just a few tics colder can make all the difference out this way. Kinda forgot what it feels like...hence the trepidation over the past day!... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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