rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 That map is in tenths of an inch so 300 = 30". The 00z GFS looks more amplified with the shortwave and farther north vs. the 18z run. That map is in tenths of an inch so 300 = 30". The 00z GFS looks more amplified with the shortwave and farther north vs. the 18z run. oh, good god, are you serious? ive never, never seen totals like that forecast for WNY! other than meso lake effect stuff. Holy crap. if that comes to pass- we make national news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The good news is that we have ALL DAY TUESDAY to sweat more model runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 please paste the images when you can re the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM: RGEM: GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 00Z GFS H42: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 00Z GFS H48 (Dayum!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 please paste the images when you can re the GFS. See above. RGEM and GFS in same agreement. Euro should be as well if it keeps up from its last 3-4 runs. NAM is clear outlier. GFS: 12-18 inches across KBUF to Rochester. Definitely the sweet spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 oh, good god, are you serious? ive never, never seen totals like that forecast for WNY! other than meso lake effect stuff. Holy crap. if that comes to pass- we make national news. Well it is the NAM but it does show significant 850 mb frontogenesis (> 5 K /100km/3hr) for like a 9 hour period over parts of CNY+WNY, along with decent lake-enhancement towards the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Hey KING!? what do you think? My roc forecasters are totally confident we stay snow north of the thruway. my nerves are alleviated a bit- but it might be due to the 6 miller lites ive hammered down. Drink 6 more and you won't give 2 sh!ts if we mix a bit!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Drink 6 more and you won't give 2 sh!ts if we mix a bit!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 00Z GFS at H42, about as warm as it gets...BGM still goes over but ITH prob not...or barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 00Z GFS 60hr cum precip: as expected, less than NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 00Z GFS 60hr cum precip: as expected, less than NAM Where are you located? Syracuse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 thanks for the advice king. i think i'll do just that. But all silliness aside, I really, really, don't remember a storm with this much consensus and such great totals for the northern western ny region. Anyone else? I recall one that was later in april that showed crazy totals, but it wasn't locked in this close with so many models. Any chance of a blizzard warning for the northern tier of WNY or is that just my buddy Miller talking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Where are you located? Syracuse? northern burbs...basically on county line of onondaga and oswego ctys. Maybe 12-15 miles NNW of downtown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 thanks for the advice king. i think i'll do just that. But all silliness aside, I really, really, don't remember a storm with this much consensus and such great totals for the northern western ny region. Anyone else? I recall one that was later in april that showed crazy totals, but it wasn't locked in this close with so many models. Any chance of a blizzard warning for the northern tier of WNY or is that just my buddy Miller talking... we don't do Blizzard warnings up here. We leave that for NWS in NYC and New England, where virtually none of them verify... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro run tonight = biggest event in upstate NY since Tom Cruise was born in Syracuse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Well, the low went a bit further south but the mix line went a bit further north. I'll be back for the Euro play by play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro run tonight = biggest event in upstate NY since Tom Cruise was born in Syracuse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The Canadian doesn't appear to be out yet. I can't make the Euro, will have to spy it before work, or at work. Fingers crossed for #nochittysurprises tomorrow. edit: looks like RGEM out, not GGEM. I think this is H48 of the 00Z Tues RGEM (wow): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 The Canadian doesn't appear to be out yet. I can't make the Euro, will have to spy it before work, or at work. Fingers crossed for #nochittysurprises tomorrow. edit: looks like RGEM out, not GGEM. I think this is H48 of the 00Z Tues RGEM (wow): RGEM is similar to GFS, Maybe 10 miles more north than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 GEM a little bit north, but there is going to be some EPIC rates along that mixing line. There is a color blue in these pictures that I've never seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 GEM a little bit north, but there is going to be some EPIC rates along that mixing line. There is a color blue in these pictures that I've never seen before. that would give buf and rochester a two foot deal. im on board as of now. too far north for blizzard warnings. but snowfall totals could rival record amts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 im staying up for euro. anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 come on...no one is getting 2 ft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 come on...no one is getting 2 ft... HeY wE cAn aLL dReAm OKAY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 ARW: NMM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 ARW and NMM show someone getting 2 feet. just saying. the big ones always happen this time of year- synoptic ones anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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