Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 That the NAM stopped its North trend is good news. It's the clear northern outlier and this run gives me confidence that it is wrong, as it usually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 the thruway is the line. wow. Im not sure ive ever seen a storm this strong rolling through northern pa. I hope dynamics help us big time. rochester still does well but barely. toronto gets killed. Thankfully we are north of the Thruway! I agree, Thruway south mixes on front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 00Z NAM 48 hr qpf as of 60 hrs...overdone much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Shift that precip axis 50 miles south and we're all in business... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Shift that precip axis 50 miles south and we're all in business... If the NAM is off on this storm by as much as it was on the last storm that came at us from this direction we'll all be waking up to 1-2 feet of new snow on Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM is actually great in the 48 hr range. at least it used to be. euro will start to be useless in my opinion. but i might eat those words. I find the NAM to be generally very unreliable, especially with cyclogenesis outside of 24 hours. The Euro has been the most consistent over the last few days with this system, though there is always a chance it will join the other guidance farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 0z nam a crush for North of the thruway from buf thru syr. good luck! close call. glad it didnt go north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 If the NAM is off on this storm by as much as it was on the last storm that came at us from this direction we'll all be waking up to 1-2 feet of new snow on Thursday morning. I still haven't given up on this thing for Ithaca, though the wrap around snows of a few inches and flash freeze the NAM shows are decent consolation prizes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Shift that precip axis 50 miles south and we're all in business... I'm more confident now that SYR northward SHOULD avoid major mixing....the settling of the 0C line a bit from the 18z, even with a stronger system, suggests that verification of the slp should be south of what NAM is depicting. Let's keep the GooFuS where it has been and nudge the Euro a tiny bit northward. Odd track for such a strong, juicy system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I find the NAM to be generally very unreliable, especially with cyclogenesis outside of 24 hours. The Euro has been the most consistent over the last few days with this system, though there is always a chance it will join the other guidance farther north. Safe to say mass weenie pandemonium around the I-90 corridor if Euro comes in tonight anywhere near the latest NAM and GFS runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'm more confident now that SYR northward SHOULD avoid major mixing....the settling of the 0C line a bit from the 18z, even with a stronger system, suggests that verification of the slp should be south of what NAM is depicting. Let's keep the GooFuS where it has been and nudge the Euro a tiny bit northward. Odd track for such a strong, juicy system! Chicago has a 3 hour period of snow with 9-10 inches. Thundersnow a possibility? Also NAM gives YYZ 30+ inches, lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro had this going across Southern PA at 12Z while NAM has it just south of the Southern Tier...I doubt the Euro caves to the NAM tonight. NAM is a bit south and colder vs 18z...I would expect it to continue to tic south a bit as it starts to get a clue. For most of you west of here its simply a matter of how much snow. I would like to get a better idea of how much rain vs snow to expect in these parts up here. Safe to say mass weenie pandemonium around the I-90 corridor if Euro comes in tonight anywhere near the latest NAM and GFS runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'm more confident now that SYR northward SHOULD avoid major mixing....the settling of the 0C line a bit from the 18z, even with a stronger system, suggests that verification of the slp should be south of what NAM is depicting. Let's keep the GooFuS where it has been and nudge the Euro a tiny bit northward. Odd track for such a strong, juicy system! Euro 24 hr steps hurt analysis...but it has shown the slp down over west KY and then ENE to near NYC and SNE for several runs. NAM has slp up in central Indiana and pushes it almost due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Euro 24 hr steps hurt analysis...but it has shown the slp down over west KY and then ENE to near NYC and SNE for several runs. NAM has slp up in central Indiana and pushes it almost due east. You do know about the Wunderground 3hr. Euro...don't you?? Navigate through the menu on the right, deselect the default obs and radar, and look for model data, select Euro and the parameters you want...all free! http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 You do know about the Wunderground 3hr. Euro...don't you?? Navigate through the menu on the right, deselect the default obs and radar, and look for model data, select Euro and the parameters you want...all free! http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ I did not know! I must have missed this development when I was less active. Thanks!And per weather underground map...its 36 IMBY and 49 in SYR? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The 00z NAM handles the anticyclonic wave break over the Pacific NW differently than the 12z Euro. It has with a more energetic shortwave separating from the breaking wave allowing for a quicker neutral/negative tilt and thus an earlier phase with the northern stream vorticity max. As a result, it brings the surface low down to 996 mb over southern IL vs. only 1000 mb on the Euro. The exact interaction and development of these features is still difficult to predict but a stronger surface low means stronger warm advection downstream and a more northerly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 The 00z NAM handles the anticyclonic wave break over the Pacific NW differently than the 12z Euro. It has with a more energetic shortwave separating from the breaking wave allowing for a quicker neutral/negative tilt and thus an earlier phase with the northern stream vorticity max. As a result, it brings the surface low down to 996 mb over southern IL vs. only 1000 mb on the Euro. The exact interaction and development of these features is still difficult to predict but a stronger surface low means stronger warm advection downstream and a more northerly track. Yep Miller As have much stronger bust potential than Miller Bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM 4KM 3 feet in Toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM 4KM 3 feet in Toronto I see 180mm for Toronto....am I missing something?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 I see 180mm for Toronto....am I missing something?? Wow I didn't zoom in. HAHA my bad. Jackpot is over Niagara Frontier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Safe to say mass weenie pandemonium around the I-90 corridor if Euro comes in tonight anywhere near the latest NAM and GFS runs.... The GFS really isn't bad for CNY. The NAM is the only truly bad outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Don Paul gave a shout-out to 0Z NAM during 11:00 forecast. Said it was "running amuck," but he looked nervous...He's going with 8-12"+ for BUF metro area right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 lakeeffectkid, the ensemble members tend to lose their skill relative to the op in this range. The op models are better to use now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I see 180mm for Toronto....am I missing something?? I thought that map was in mm also...if u look at the bottom its in inches x 10... edit: and a 10:1 ratio (which probably is close to right for this storm here in CNY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM 4KM 3 feet in Toronto that shows the biggest totals of 30 cm in orleans and wayne county (due to lake effect help). which is like 13". Toronto shows about 10". those silly metric people! they still confuse me too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Hey KING!? what do you think? My roc forecasters are totally confident we stay snow north of the thruway. my nerves are alleviated a bit- but it might be due to the 6 miller lites ive hammered down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 that shows the biggest totals of 30 cm in orleans and wayne county (due to lake effect help). which is like 13". Toronto shows about 10". those silly metric people! they still confuse me too! That map is in tenths of an inch so 300 = 30". The 00z GFS looks more amplified with the shortwave and farther north vs. the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 now we can start sweating a south trend. this is some kinda sickness we share amongst friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 that shows the biggest totals of 30 cm in orleans and wayne county (due to lake effect help). which is like 13". Toronto shows about 10". those silly metric people! they still confuse me too! that map is in inches x 10 at a 10:1 ratio...not mm or cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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