BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 honestly I think the heaviest snow falls from the thruway north. Honestly unless the models change significantly in the next 24 hours I think Lockport to ROC will see 12"+ To hard to predict that ATM. GFS/Euro have the jackpot across central Erie county into Central NY. The Euro is still the farthest south. GGEM is also south, but not as much. NAM is the far northern outlier. (Which it usually is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YardGorilla Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 They models have really been all over the place with this system. I've never seen such crazy model runs with less than 30 hours before the event. But I do remember those in Central PA with the last system went from 12+ inches to dusting 36 hours before the event. That's gotta hurt. If that happens with this storm there will be a lot of mets hung out to dry. Some of the other broadcast stations however are still going with somewhat lower totals for the buf metro. I agree though the models have been all over the place with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 To hard to predict that ATM. GFS/Euro have the jackpot across central Erie county into Central NY. The Euro is still the farthest south. GGEM is also south, but not as much. NAM is the far northern outlier. (Which it usually is)very true but even if the storm lands up further south they will still see a boost in QPF from lake enhancement. Not positive but pretty sure the global models (GFS, ECMWF) can't take the lake enhancement into account as much because of their coarser resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Nick, what are your thoughts on these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 EURO Ensemble Mean is also south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Would be pretty short lived....air is bone dry on the eastern periphery of the arctic HP... very true but even if the storm lands up further south they will still see a boost in QPF from lake enhancement. Not positive but pretty sure the global models (GFS, ECMWF) can't take the lake enhancement into account as much because of their coarser resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 One thing about Dave Longley's concern about mild air in front of the storm...he's right, but how many times do we see this further south? Pretty often. Temps in the 40s to near 50 in southern New England, and particularly the mid Atlantic, the day prior, is not all that unusual. It is more unusual up here. God knows, I lived that for many years from VA to CT. Of course it means you battle the transition line in that setup. In the end, the slp and 850/700 mb tracks and intensity will decide our fate. BGM to ALB definately look like they will spend some time pinging, or worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 didn't catch that. We'll see what happens. Honestly I don't have much time to look at the models besides a quick glimpse at 850temps and QPF. Wish I had more time to get back into the weather and post on here like I used to but I'm just far too busy. This storm should be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 the euro always misses the lake enhancement. remember, the eastern 1/3 of ontario IS frozen, so LEenhancement may only occur from Rochester and west this time around. the high res NAM probably does the best with LES, when the LOW isn't in the North Pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 21z sref looks great for anyone north of routes 5 and 20 still. close though. exciting..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 didn't catch that. We'll see what happens. Honestly I don't have much time to look at the models besides a quick glimpse at 850temps and QPF. Wish I had more time to get back into the weather and post on here like I used to but I'm just far too busy. This storm should be fun to watch. Haha its all good. Its been a fun one to track the last week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 21z sref looks great for anyone north of routes 5 and 20 still. close though. exciting..... Interesting to sweat the R/S line rather than the SN / Virga line for a change of pace... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The 00Z NAM is running! The most important run of our lives! (channeling the boards to our south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 The 00Z NAM is running! The most important run of our lives! (channeling the boards to our south) It's the NAM, the worst model of all with accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The 00Z NAM is running! The most important run of our lives! (channeling the boards to our south) hoping it holds or ticks south. anything north foretells sad things for buf and roc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM is actually great in the 48 hr range. at least it used to be. euro will start to be useless in my opinion. but i might eat those words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM is slower, slightly deeper, and a bit further south through 27. Edit: Same through 33, but the pregame is a touch warmer in WNY. Edit 2: The warm air surge to the south is a little weaker, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TakeMeToManos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 This is exciting! (Ithaca, NY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM is slower, slightly deeper, and a bit further south through 27. Edit: Same through 33, but the pregame is a touch warmer in WNY. Edit 2: The warm air surge to the south is a little weaker, though. can you post maps? i watch ewall which is slowwww Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM is slower, slightly deeper, and a bit further south through 27. Edit: Same through 33, but the pregame is a touch warmer in WNY. Edit 2: The warm air surge to the south is a little weaker, though. NAM looks bad, went more northwest. Heaviest snow is in MIchigan now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM looks bad, went more northwest. Heaviest snow is in MIchigan now. we done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 can you post maps? i watch ewall which is slowwww Not from my site, but here are the links: 18z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031018&time=INSTANT&var=MXTMP&hour=045 00z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031100&time=INSTANT&var=MXTMP&hour=039 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 16 inches north of Detriot. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 doesnt look bad thru 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YardGorilla Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Is the NAM shift outlierish or something credible and game changing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 its the same or a tic south of 18z with the low. but strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The low was 1-2 mb stronger and about 15 miles south on the 00z NAM, with slightly colder temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 850's are actually a degree or two colder up this way vs. 18z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Lets hope the NAM is the northern range of solutions....mixes the entire So. tier of NY up to near SYR by H45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 the thruway is the line. wow. Im not sure ive ever seen a storm this strong rolling through northern pa. I hope dynamics help us big time. rochester still does well but barely. toronto gets killed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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