LakeEffectKing Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Dave Longley from 9wsyr isn't too bullish on this being a big snow maker: http://www.localsyr.com/story/d/story/storm-update-dave-longleys-blog/95078/koB0i9_lDEyJJVZJ3vTYaA Setting aside the NAM/RGEM and SREFs, I'm always leery of these storm tracks...especially with temperatures in the 60's and 70's to the south, where the storm will start to ingest as it commences stout deepening.... That said, if the slp stays south of PA, we should be ok....if it drives into SW PA toward NYC, I think a majority of us will be quite disappointed with the end results, and folks up in ART into the Adirondacks will cash in at our expense. If the house gave me 8" right now, I'd take it and run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRLady Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 w Watertown is still on a watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 because he is a troll. He trolls on another Buffalo weather blog too under several different names because he was banned by Don Paul. Unfortunately he somehow found this forum and now he will try to do the same thing as he did there. Btw expect him to post some crap about how he's not the same person from the other blog and a whole BS story. It's him and other users from this forum know about him as well. Best thing to do is ignore him because he is absolutely relentless at trolling. Beware! Two or three trolls have made the WIVB blog unreadable, which is a shame, because Don Paul is a good met and I would like to read what he has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Setting aside the NAM/RGEM and SREFs, I'm always leery of these storm tracks...especially with temperatures in the 60's and 70's to the south, where the storm will start to ingest as it commences stout deepening.... That said, if the slp stays south of PA, we should be ok....if it drives into SW PA toward NYC, I think a majority of us will be quite disappointed with the end results, and folks up in ART into the Adirondacks will cash in at our expense. If the house gave me 8" right now, I'd take it and run... That right there tells me you aren't a risky gambler! I woudlnt walk for less than the sref average! (15). rochester local mets are not too concerned with mixing att. I agree with the 'pattern recognition', when you see sw winds blwing warm air up the lower lakes plain it fortells bad things my friend, bad things. But, we have a strong H anchored to our north which should create a steep temp profile N to S. I have routes 5 and 20 the Northern most mix line. But if Nam verifies it would be the lake shore. And Toronto never gets big snows, so i hope that says something too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 That right there tells me you aren't a risky gambler! I woudlnt walk for less than the sref average! (15). rochester local mets are not too concerned with mixing att. I agree with the 'pattern recognition', when you see sw winds blwing warm air up the lower lakes plain it fortells bad things my friend, bad things. But, we have a strong H anchored to our north which should create a steep temp profile N to S. I have routes 5 and 20 the Northern most mix line. But if Nam verifies it would be the lake shore. And Toronto never gets big snows, so i hope that says something too. I hope my fears are unfounded....these tracks scare me, especially with such a tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 i hope the 0z suites stop this N trend and reverse it a touch. If not, a lot of forecasters around here will have egg on their face. It sucks being on the r/s line. But it is just North of that line that 'takes the House'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I can appreciate not wanting to hold snowpack in mid to late march. It's nice sometimes to deal with snowfall, and then for the nuisance of the snow on the ground to go away quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'm ready for one last storm to put me over 150 inches on the year, haven't hit that in forever. The models are so far apart right now and I agree with LEK, but I think we are in a better spot than him with the positioning of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 i hope the 0z suites stop this N trend and reverse it a touch. If not, a lot of forecasters around here will have egg on their face. It sucks being on the r/s line. But it is just North of that line that 'takes the House'. The "ace in the hole" is the Euro, IMO, at this time. If she holds serve over night, then my confidence would build that most of W/C NY would escape any real meaningful mixing/change over concerns. If Euro goes warmer/north, then a lot of us will have some rather large concerns about double digit accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'm ready for one last storm to put me over 150 inches on the year, haven't hit that in forever. The models are so far apart right now and I agree with LEK, but I think we are in a better spot than him with the positioning of the low. Correct...further north and west, and concerns diminish quite a bit....warm air seems to overachieve on these types of tracks, especially into the eastern FL region. You guys should be OK wrt mixing/change over. Jamestown to Roc to the Tug are at risk, IMO, of being disappointed with the current thoughts of 12 or so inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Being concerned about the mix line usually means you're in a pretty good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Being concerned about the mix line usually means you're in a pretty good spot Yes...if we were only 12 hours out from event commencement... There is a hint of me downplaying expectation, so as to be "excited" when those concerns become unfounded.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 If there are two models you want to have against you at it's the NAM and SREFs. Remember Southwest flow event last month when the NAM was north of every other model a day before the event and spat out 18-24 for BUF-ROC? The jackpot for the region with that storm was Binghamton with 12-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YardGorilla Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 because he is a troll. He trolls on another Buffalo weather blog too under several different names because he was banned by Don Paul. Unfortunately he somehow found this forum and now he will try to do the same thing as he did there. Btw expect him to post some crap about how he's not the same person from the other blog and a whole BS story. It's him and other users from this forum know about him as well. Best thing to do is ignore him because he is absolutely relentless at trolling. Beware! Actually one of the biggest offenders since I've been on the blog, Devin, was removed a few days ago. I am betting a lot of phony names will pop up now that he's gone. We'll wait and see. I still post there from time to time when I have questions on technical jargon in the AFD but it seems more mets are here so this forum is probably a better resource. I agree with WNash. 2 or 3 trolls have made that blog unreadable. Good thing one of them was removed. Now it's down to 1-2 problem children. As for wanting the snow gone, not immediately. My wife's family lives in West Seneca and they're bracing for the worst if we crash into late Spring conditions abruptly, whether that be later this month or April. A gradual transition into Spring at this juncture would be preferred. I enjoy seasonal transitions and winter has just wore me out. Sorry but Summer can't come soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 too much high school-esque drama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YardGorilla Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 i was not thrown off for trolling. I was thrown off for speaking my mind about you on the blog. Huge difference between getting kicked off for trolling and getting kicked off because you stood up to the troll because your beyond fed up. Nice try though. I'm done wasting space posting about you on this forum because this forum is far too good to let you ruin it. I now have all your post blocked so they don't even show up good riddance Chris. Who are you talking about? You clearly have issues. You've never spoken to me or even responded to any of my posts there. Considering I haven't posted in a couple of months, you're talking about something imaginary. I knew you were Devin though since you've used that screen name (and I'm sure many others) there before. I've been on that blog since 2012 and found out about this one around the same time via Google. I didn't move into the WNY area until Jan 2012. If you're referring to that CP character, I remember him well. He was actually a decent guy who was thrown off for speaking out against you and your exaggerated rain and snowfall measurement which were magnitudes of order greater than anyone surrounding you. You made some believe that Eggertsville received more annual snowfall than the Tug Hill. I believe you had Mr Paul's sympathies being young and immature, but he was in the right in calling you out. Enough on this topic though I'm here to learn about weather and I'm not going to let a child with fantasies get in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Pretty sure the answer is "no, you dumba#$", but curious enough to ask....will the 10,000 square miles of solid ice on Lake Erie have any impact at all on this system in terms of dynamics, movement, etc.? My limited understanding of meteorology tells me a system like this is entirely driven by what's going on way up in the atmosphere, and surface conditions would have no effect. But such a large area of arctic sheet ice on this storm's flank... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 too much high school-esque drama that's what happens when a troll shows up. I have been on this forum since it's inception in 2010 or whenever it started and there's never been a problem. Was on the Eastern forums since I believe 07 or 08 and there was never a problem. He shows up and there's drama. I have his post all ignored so I won't be seeing them. I feel guilty for even wasting this much space on these forums posting about him. Will go back and delete all my previous post about him because this forum is far better than high school drama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Do we have to call in the mods? Come on now... WIVB is a decent blog when the trolls are not out, but Don's post are not really informative. They are typical news broadcast predictions. He very rarely goes into depth about his predictions and the models. That is because the everyday poster/viewer doesn't have any "credentials" so they would never understand weather jargon... There really is a limitless amount of knowledge you can learn on this website. I've come a long way the last 4 years from posters such as Nick, LEK, and a few others on other sub-forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like some strong NE winds on the backside of that low as it strengthens on the coast. (25-35 MPH) Ontario is basically ice free...What are the chances of some strong Lake enhancement on the backside of the low once the strongest dynamics have already moved through? I think someone on the Niagara Frontier/Rochester corridor hits the jackpot on this one. 15+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YardGorilla Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Do we have to call in the mods? Come on now... WIVB is a decent blog when the trolls are not out, but Don's post are not really informative. They are typical news broadcast predictions. He very rarely goes into depth about his predictions and the models. That is because the everyday poster/viewer doesn't have any "credentials" so they would never understand weather jargon... There really is a limitless amount of knowledge you can learn on this website. I've come a long way the last 4 years from posters such as Nick, LEK, and a few others on other sub-forums. He has to beat around the bush and I'm sure Don is limited in what information he can share with a bunch of anonymous weather enthusiasts. He's up for retirement soon though. I'll miss his forecasts once he's off WIVB but they have other decent mets there. Todd and Bryan are both good mets and I'm sure they'll fill the void just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Nice to see both TYX and BUF radars up....can they both go the next 72 hours?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like some strong NE winds on the backside of that low as it strengthens on the coast. (25-35 MPH) Ontario is basically ice free...What are the chances of some strong Lake enhancement on the backside of the low once the strongest dynamics have already moved through? I think someone on the Niagara Frontier/Rochester corridor hits the jackpot on this one. 15+? Im working in Rochester and am excited to be able to see the storm from there. Have a feeling they will have the jackpot. Will definitely be getting a hotel tomorrow night as well as Wednesday night so I don't have to travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Im working in Rochester and am excited to be able to see the storm from there. Have a feeling they will have the jackpot. Will definitely be getting a hotel tomorrow night as well as Wednesday night so I don't have to travel. Yeah, I am going to be staying overnight at my parents house in Amherst for this one. Don't want my wife driving to work Weds Morning in some pretty bad conditions, she absolutely hates driving in snow. Should be a good spot for some heavy totals as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like some strong NE winds on the backside of that low as it strengthens on the coast. (25-35 MPH) Ontario is basically ice free...What are the chances of some strong Lake enhancement on the backside of the low once the strongest dynamics have already moved through? I think someone on the Niagara Frontier/Rochester corridor hits the jackpot on this one. 15+? Would be pretty short lived....air is bone dry on the eastern periphery of the arctic HP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Take the drama elsewhere. This forum isn't as active as others but that also has its benefits. This place is moderated. Back to the weather, how awful has the GFS been in the medium range with this system? A few days ago it had virtually nothing and now...I don't pay up for the euro suite but it would be interesting to see more detail on the 00z runs tonight, its been the most consistent with this system. Which doesn't mean it can't ease north a bit, but until it does I'm not sweating the NAM given its usual bias possibly on full parade here. Plus...18Z runs...seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Yeah, I am going to be staying overnight at my parents house in Amherst for this one. Don't want my wife driving to work Weds Morning in some pretty bad conditions, she absolutely hates driving in snow. Should be a good spot for some heavy totals as well.honestly I think the heaviest snow falls from the thruway north. Honestly unless the models change significantly in the next 24 hours I think Lockport to ROC will see 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YardGorilla Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Those along the Lake Ontario shoreline are apt to see the most snow in my opinion especially with the potential lake enhancement off of Ontario. Tomorrow those models may very well continue the northward shift and put that R/S line closer to BUF. That's a guess on my part but similar events have been forecasted in the past that weren't ultimately big snow producers around the BUF metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Take the drama elsewhere. This forum isn't as active as others but that also has its benefits. This place is moderated. Back to the weather, how awful has the GFS been in the medium range with this system? A few days ago it had virtually nothing and now...I don't pay up for the euro suite but it would be interesting to see more detail on the 00z runs tonight, its been the most consistent with this system. Which doesn't mean it can't ease north a bit, but until it does I'm not sweating the NAM given its usual bias possibly on full parade here. Plus...18Z runs...seriously? They models have really been all over the place with this system. I've never seen such crazy model runs with less than 30 hours before the event. But I do remember those in Central PA with the last system went from 12+ inches to dusting 36 hours before the event. That's gotta hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Would be pretty short lived....air is bone dry on the eastern periphery of the arctic HP... I figured, it gets COLD after this system goes by. Low of 5 on Weds. Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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