OSUmetstud Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The 12z gfs and 12z nam did amp up and close off the 700mb low somewhere near WNY. That's how you get the bigger foot+ totals if that type of solution verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 The 12z gfs and 12z nam did amp up and close off the 700mb low somewhere near WNY. That's how you get the bigger foot+ totals if that type of solution verified. SREFS and GGEM mostly agree with that type of run as well. Euro is the farthest SE it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YardGorilla Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Those latest runs were a bit eye opening....but the 12z euro coming a touch SE should give pause before thinking big totals. By how much do the totals change if the Euro ends up being correct with the more southerly storm track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Solid agreement in GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 By how much do the totals change if the Euro ends up being correct with the more southerly storm track? 6-8 across Metro Buffalo. 10-12 at state line, more to the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 12z NAM is just awful. Nothing here and 2 feet 30 miles to the north. GFS trended south from its 6z run and gave me a foot but the 6 inch line is ten miles to the south. Ithaca always seems to have a warm finger come in from the north or south with marginal storms. Clinging to the Euro now. Edit: The GGEM and UKMET are still on board for the entire region as of their 12z runs as well. We're in this together! Right now it seems to be American versus foreign in terms of snow totals (with the American GFS and foreign UKMET as partial "traitors"). Looks like we will get anything from a flash freeze to a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I looked at it again. If anything the euro is slightly more amped up than 00z...it just happened to cut back qpf on the northwest side slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I think the take home message right now (T-40 hours or so) is that the Upstate region is FINALLY the place where most everyone else would like to be for a synoptic event!!! It's been awhile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 We did pretty well this part of Upstate in ENY last event, but I agree as far as WNY and CNY are concerned. Euro still gives my area a good event, but GFS? Not so much... I think the take home message right now (T-40 hours or so) is that the Upstate region is FINALLY the place where most everyone else would like to be for a synoptic event!!! It's been awhile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 We did pretty well this part of Upstate in ENY last event, but I agree as far as WNY and CNY are concerned. Euro still gives my area a good event, but GFS? Not so much... I believe this is our 3rd (or 4th) potential moderate synoptic event of the "winter." There haven't been any big storms for WNY and CNY...but the 2 or 3 previous had somewhere had totals in the 5-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 I believe this is our 3rd (or 4th) potential moderate synoptic event of the "winter." There haven't been any big storms for WNY and CNY...but the 2 or 3 previous had somewhere had totals in the 5-12". Updated HPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Updated SREF Plume Means: Buffalo: 14.5 inches Rochester: 15.9 inches Syracuse: 13.1 inches Albany: 9.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Clusters: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 WSW in effect: ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDTTHURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOLONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...ORLEANS...ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING COUNTIES.* TIMING...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...BELOW A HALF MILE AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 NWS Snow Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YardGorilla Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Looks like NT (where I live) is in the 8-10" range. Not bad. What you gotta love about March is how quickly the snow usually melts after these storms. Forecast is calling for almost 40°F on Friday and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 something tells me the 18z nam is overdoing it just a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 18z NAM warms CNY even further....verbaitum, there's IP up to SYR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 A nice little tidbit from the KBUF AFD: AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AT 850 AND 700 MB...DEVELOPING A TROWAL AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. IF ALL OF THIS COMES TOGETHER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOCALIZED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED WHEN THE LOCATION OF SUCH A MESOSCALE FEATURE CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 it's a good thing it's the 18z nam, then lol 18z NAM warms CNY even further....verbaitum, there's IP up to SYR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 something tells me the 18z nam is overdoing it just a tad Quite possibly....but a bit troublesome with many more runs to go. 00z runs should get all the s/w's sampled well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 SREF's have trended north with the critical ptype lines: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21TYPNE_15z/srefloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 SREF's have trended north with the critical ptype lines: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21TYPNE_15z/srefloop.html#picture The euro and the gem being that far SE I seriously wouldn't worry about it all that much. The SREFs are based too heavily on the NAM imo, so if it's really amped up...they'll be the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 The euro and the gem being that far SE I seriously wouldn't worry about it all that much. The SREFs are based too heavily on the NAM imo, so if it's really amped up...they'll be the same way. The NAM is showing 30 inches in Toronto. I don't think they've ever had a 30 inch snowstorm in history. It's such a horrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Latest Euro Ensemble Mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Looks like NT (where I live) is in the 8-10" range. Not bad. What you gotta love about March is how quickly the snow usually melts after these storms. Forecast is calling for almost 40°F on Friday and Saturday. I don't think anybody here is going to agree with you on that. Why would you want the snow to melt?! I'm confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Watch the best snows end up from Jamestown to Watertown west. 9WSYR starting to downplay event. Mentioning rain as a possibility and March sun. Mentions roads will be wet most of the day and then "some" accumulating snow at night. Hope they are wrong but NAM is worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 something tells me the 18z nam is overdoing it just a tad Haha yep... 18z GFS is a significant shift south and east: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Haha yep... 18z GFS is a significant shift south and east: It actually looks a bit warmer in ENY to start. Temperatures do drop quicker as the low goes over southern New England so it might be showing a period of heavier snow at that time. Need to see the soundings to be sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Dave Longley from 9wsyr isn't too bullish on this being a big snow maker: http://www.localsyr.com/story/d/story/storm-update-dave-longleys-blog/95078/koB0i9_lDEyJJVZJ3vTYaA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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