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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Middle of Winter

BuffaloWeather

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ayuud11

ayuud11

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Posted

Region wide WSW up.

 

 

 

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. BEFORE THAT...
TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MILD WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH MID
40S IN MANY AREAS FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL STAY A LITTLE COOLER WITH UPPER 30S.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES
AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF/GLOBAL GEM AND THEIR ENSEMBLES...BUT THOSE
DIFFERENCES ARE MUCH SMALLER TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. IN THE MID
LEVELS...A STRONG PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND RACE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH STREAM PHASING OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION LEADING TO A DYNAMIC SYSTEM. THE
TROUGH WILL BECOME FULLY PHASED BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EAST
COAST...WITH A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH CHARGING INTO THE NORTHEAST.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS
TO TAKE SHAPE...FRONTOGENESIS AND DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY...ALLOWING LIGHT SNOW TO BREAK
OUT OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NY AND REACHING CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AT THE ONSET.

ON WEDNESDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
EARLY IN THE MORNING TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY EVENING...
BEFORE HEADING TO NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY SHARPENS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES SHOULD ALSO AID IN DEVELOPING A BROAD BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
AND DEFORMATION TO THE LEFT OF THE LOW TRACK. GIVEN HOW RAPIDLY THE
SYSTEM DEEPENS...BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A WELL DEVELOPED
COMMA HEAD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAY BE REALIZED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW AS THE TROWAL AIRSTREAM BECOMES FULLY
ESTABLISHED. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE THAN AMPLE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW...WITH 3.5 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT.

THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COMING TOGETHER...ALONG WITH
THE FAVORABLE LOW TRACK ALL POINT TOWARDS A NOTABLE SNOW EVENT
ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND...A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. TIMING WILL BE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE WEST...AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE EAST. THIS STORM IS MOVING ALONG FAIRLY QUICKLY SO IT
WILL NOT BE A TRULY LARGE SNOWSTORM...BUT THE LOWER END OF WARNING
CRITERIA APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT. INITIAL ESTIMATE ON STORM
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IS ON THE ORDER OF 7-12 INCHES. SYNOPTICALLY
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LESS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
GIVEN THE FORECAST LOW TRACK...BUT LAKE ENHANCEMENT DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE EVENT MAY VERY WELL MAKE UP FOR THAT AND BRING
TOTALS ALONG THE LAKESHORE UP INTO THAT RANGE. THIS EVENT IS STILL
TWO DAYS OUT...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO THIS INITIAL
ESTIMATE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THE LOWER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS. DURING THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW WRAPS UP...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DRAW MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE
20S AND THROUGH THE TEENS AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES DROP
AND THE SNOW BECOMES LOWER DENSITY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL KEEP THIS MULTIBANDED...WITH A FEW EXTRA INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY POSSIBLY DROPPING TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

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It'll be a fine line here in ENY/NENY (Saratoga area), but CNY especially can withstand some movement either way with this.  Hopefully ENY can get in on some of this too without screwing the rest of Upstate too badly.

 

I'll be in the Albany area for this one where we're even more likely to have rain mixing in. The 06z GFS had the piece of the PV farther north in QC than the 00z run allowing the low to take a more northerly track. It also amplifies the trough over the midwest a bit sooner than the 00z run, possibly due to the differences in handling the anticyclonic wave break over the NW.

 

The 06z run had less of a wave break which produced a weaker 500 mb shortwave that interfered less with the larger-scale trough. The stronger shortwave on the 00z run causes the larger-scale trough to amplify slower and bring the low farther south and slightly weaker.

 

Either way, these wave breaking events can be poorly handled by the models, especially in this case when there is also a significant amount of moisture over the Pacific NW. The position of the piece of the PV will have a big impact on the track as well.

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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

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Those runs are really juiced up. CNY and NE are in the bullseye. Anyone want to place bets that the Buffalo area ends up with less than 6"? This is going to be a quick mover.

 

Some place, likely in CNY/NNY/WNY will get into a decent mesoscale band. The upper-level jet streak that will be in QC supports the development of a frontogenetical circulation in the right entrance region of that jet. You can see significant values of 700 mb frontogenesis forecast over CNY for 00z Thursday, collocated with a max in model QPF.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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I'll be in the Albany area for this one where we're even more likely to have rain mixing in. The 06z GFS had the piece of the PV farther north in QC than the 00z run allowing the low to take a more northerly track. It also amplifies the trough over the midwest a bit sooner than the 00z run, possibly due to the differences in handling the anticyclonic wave break over the NW.

 

The 06z run had less of a wave break which produced a weaker 500 mb shortwave that interfered less with the larger-scale trough. The stronger shortwave on the 00z run causes the larger-scale trough to amplify slower and bring the low farther south and slightly weaker.

 

Either way, these wave breaking events can be poorly handled by the models, especially in this case when there is also a significant amount of moisture over the Pacific NW. The position of the piece of the PV will have a big impact on the track as well.

 

Thanks for the detailed explanation. Looks like someone in NY will see some 12+ inch totals when all is said and done. Should be a fun one to watch!

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Stash

Stash

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The PV has kept most of the storms this year from moving far enough north to put Upstate ENY in the bullseye.  Certainly not the case now! :) 12z nam would certainly bring rain/mix into ENY, and into the Southern Teir as well.  Granted, the 00z nam had a much more suppressed look, and its clearly not within its wheelhouse of after the storm has passed. 

I'll be in the Albany area for this one where we're even more likely to have rain mixing in. The 06z GFS had the piece of the PV farther north in QC than the 00z run allowing the low to take a more northerly track. It also amplifies the trough over the midwest a bit sooner than the 00z run, possibly due to the differences in handling the anticyclonic wave break over the NW.

 

The 06z run had less of a wave break which produced a weaker 500 mb shortwave that interfered less with the larger-scale trough. The stronger shortwave on the 00z run causes the larger-scale trough to amplify slower and bring the low farther south and slightly weaker.

 

Either way, these wave breaking events can be poorly handled by the models, especially in this case when there is also a significant amount of moisture over the Pacific NW. The position of the piece of the PV will have a big impact on the track as well.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Watch out for mixing issues....thease WSW-ENE movers like to funnel low/mid level warm air along the lake plain/west of the Apps.....moreso than usually modeled. I think we should want the lp track to tick a bit south of what the NAM has progged...

 

NAM is on the northern side of the guidance. I doubt it goes that far north.

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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

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The PV has kept most of the storms this year from moving far enough north to put Upstate ENY in the bullseye.  Certainly not the case now! :) 12z nam would certainly bring rain/mix into ENY, and into the Southern Teir as well.  Granted, the 00z nam had a much more suppressed look, and its clearly not within its wheelhouse of after the storm has passed. 

 

Yeah the NAM was way amped up; stronger with the shortwave over the mountain west and kept the PV lobe farther north vs. the 00z GFS. It also had a very strong banding signal with elevated 850 mb frontogenesis over the southern Adirondacks and CNY. Hard to take it seriously at this lead time though.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

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NAM is on the northern side of the guidance. I doubt it goes that far north.

  

Yeah the NAM was way amped up; stronger with the shortwave over the mountain west and kept the PV lobe farther north vs. the 00z GFS. It also had a very strong banding signal with elevated 850 mb frontogenesis over the southern Adirondacks and CNY. Hard to take it seriously at this lead time though.

All points well taken...that said, I've seen these type systems in the past blast WAA well north of any models' progs at these leads....just something to keep in mind as we go through the next few cycles.

BTW, RGEM is pretty warm also for Upstate NY...

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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

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Posted

 

  

All points well taken...that said, I've seen these type systems in the past blast WAA well north of any models' progs at these leads....just something to keep in mind as we go through the next few cycles.

BTW, RGEM is pretty warm also for Upstate NY...

 

It's definitely a concern, especially for ENY. We'll have to see what the guidance does over the next several suites.

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Stash

Stash

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 Personally, since Euro was marginal for these parts to begin with, I wouldn't be surprised if I flip over to rain for the majority of this event.  NNY and NNE look especially good right now, but I don't see a reason why this can't come even further north unfortunately.

 
  

All points well taken...that said, I've seen these type systems in the past blast WAA well north of any models' progs at these leads....just something to keep in mind as we go through the next few cycles.

BTW, RGEM is pretty warm also for Upstate NY...

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Stash

Stash

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Great run for WNY, northern areas of CNY and far NE NY (north of Glens Falls).  Looks like models are narrowing a track across SNE.  Maybe some backside snows here (not that it usually works out that way) depending how quickly the cold air gets pulled back down.  Looks windy too...

Massive hit on the GFS. All of WNY 12+

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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It has been from the start.  It will probably continue to correct to the north.  Even with rain here in ENY, it looks pretty brutal on the back side.

 

It's been all over the place TBH. For 3-4 days it had rain here with a clipper low heading northwest of us, then it went all the way south. The track it has now is more in line with other models and what most likely will occur.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Holy crap on the 12Z GFS.  That would be one heck of a synoptic storm for these parts.  Major bummer for me personally that I'll be in Harrisburg PA on Wed for work.  If these models keep trending towards a snow bomb in WNY, I might have to develop the flu or something...  

 

Haha, don't worry you know I will be documenting it. =)

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Gravity Wave

Gravity Wave

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12z NAM is just awful. Nothing here and 2 feet 30 miles to the north. GFS trended south from its 6z run and gave me a foot but the 6 inch line is ten miles to the south. Ithaca always seems to have a warm finger come in from the north or south with marginal storms. Clinging to the Euro now.

 

Edit: The GGEM and UKMET are still on board for the entire region as of their 12z runs as well.

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