LakeEffectKing Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 But the GFS gives us a hit.... again. its on, its off, its on, its off... etc. Im remaining hopefull based on the timing of this and the general dynamics. There will be a storm. More hope for this one than the overall trend all winter of driving them south and east and off. Another potential big one 6 days later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Euro comes in better than the previous run for WNY snows. 850mb and surface low come in more amplified and closer. The shortwave is still a bit strung out for my liking, but it is still a substantial snowstorm for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Very cold on the morning after the storm, too. 850s of -22c and lows in the low to mid single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLEOF THE WEEK. LATEST 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGENCE ONA MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME NOTABLE TIMINGAND TRACK DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE SLOWER AND MOREAMPLIFIED EDGE OF THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE. THE CANADIAN GEM REMAINSTHE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT HASBEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER BEING ANOUTLIER YESTERDAY. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL SHOW A SIGNIFICANTSYSTEM...BUT STILL HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN TIMING...TRACK...AND INTENSITY SUGGESTING THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTYWITH THE OUTCOME OF THIS SYSTEM.USING A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS ON THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE NEAR THETROPOPAUSE...WE CAN TRACE BACK THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THISSYSTEM. THIS ANALYSIS YIELDS A VERY COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION...WITHAT LEAST 3 SEPARATE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALIES MOVING OUT OF THEGULF OF ALASKA AND ONE FROM FAR NORTHERN CANADA. ALL OF THESEFEATURES EVENTUALLY COME TOGETHER AND AID IN DEVELOPING THE SYSTEMIN THE EAST. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION...ONE SHOULD TAKECURRENT MODEL RUNS WITH A DEGREE OF SKEPTICISM DESPITE THERELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.TAKING A MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEFSSOLUTIONS IT APPEARS THE CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUE TOINCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN SURFACE LOWTRACK IN THIS MODEL BLEND WOULD TAKE A DEEPENING LOW FROM THE LOWEROHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BYWEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAYMORNING. SUCH A TRACK IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANTACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT WITH THE CAVEAT OFINHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO OUTLINETHIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY SHARPEN AS THENORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FULLY PHASE...AND THE PATTERN ALSOAMPLIFIES UPSTREAM. THIS WILL DUMP ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF COLD AIRINTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TOWELL BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOMELIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIOIN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Big hits for all of WNY/Central NY on NAM/GFS now. Consensus is coming together on decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YardGorilla Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Wondering how many flip-flops we'll see between now and tomorrow. Storm still has time to go south and become weaker and dryer in the models before Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 12Z GooFuS looks bullish for upstate NY. It seems to be trending to Euro idea. Model trend on last week's storm was colder and southier over time, which was correct. Not so much with this one. In fact, GFS showing its classic SE bias only to trend the other way as event nears. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Another potential big one 6 days later! Youre not kidding, Quite the parade of storms blowing up on the East Coast over the next 10 days. The pattern is looking extremely active and energetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Latest Euro ticked a bit SE and deepens the storm more rapidly. The heaviest snow axis shifted from Salamanca-Syracuse-Saratoga at 0z to Elmira-Ithaca-Glens Falls, and the heaviest snows begin around Erie whereas at 0z they didn't really pick up until Ithaca. Nice to have a little space if it comes back NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YardGorilla Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 So the Euro is still wavering on the storm track. Looks like this one is going to come down to the wire. I guess we'll have to wait a litlte longer for a more consistent and refined storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Massive hits on the NAM and GFS. Euro a tad southeast of the last run, haven't checked the ensembles yet, but still gives us 6-8 inches. 12-16 inches on the NAM. 8-12 on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 18z NAM hammers Central NY. 12 to 18 area wide. Forcing looks impressive for 1 to 2 inch per hour rates for a time Wednesday afternoon per this run. Maybe this thing trends stronger on models? Hoping this is our biggest storm of the winter. I don't think I cracked a foot in one storm yet. Lots of 6 to 10 type stuff. Getting slightly pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 18z NAM hammers Central NY. 12 to 18 area wide. Forcing looks impressive for 1 to 2 inch per hour rates for a time Wednesday afternoon per this run. Maybe this thing trends stronger on models? Hoping this is our biggest storm of the winter. I don't think I cracked a foot in one storm yet. Lots of 6 to 10 type stuff. Getting slightly pumped. I'd have to check but....have we cracked 12" for ANY synoptic snowstorm the past few winters? If we did it was probably LES assisted at the tail end to get over the finish line...pathetic. (Not that we've lacked for snow the past two winters, no shortage of 3-5" falls). Since PHX is now out of snow days, and cannibalizing Spring Break...the kids aren't quite as jazzed for another storm. I've been cackling that by the end of next week their "Spring Break" could be reduced to a 3 day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I'd have to check but....have we cracked 12" for ANY synoptic snowstorm the past few winters? If we did it was probably LES assisted at the tail end to get over the finish line...pathetic. (Not that we've lacked for snow the past two winters, no shortage of 3-5" falls). Since PHX is now out of snow days, and cannibalizing Spring Break...the kids aren't quite as jazzed for another storm. I've been cackling that by the end of next week their "Spring Break" could be reduced to a 3 day weekend. December 2012, both BUF and SYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The chances of 12"+ aren't great with this storm, we are dealing with an open 500-700mb wave, we aren't closing off mid-level centers to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 If Phoenix uses another snow day they will convert Sept. 3rd to a conference day. WTF. The 8th day off would start to eat in to spring break. I don't get it. I need to settle down a bit on this one ie. reduce QPF/open wave deal. Any one have info on how strong the EURO is showing for St. Paddy Day possible storm? Thanks OSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 If Phoenix uses another snow day they will convert Sept. 3rd to a conference day. WTF. The 8th day off would start to eat in to spring break. I don't get it. I need to settle down a bit on this one ie. reduce QPF/open wave deal. Any one have info on how strong the EURO is showing for St. Paddy Day possible storm? Thanks OSU. I think the next "storm" is modeled mainly to our southeast. It doesn't really matter all that much at this time frame since it will change and who knows if there will be a storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I think the next "storm" is modeled mainly to our southeast. It doesn't really matter all that much at this time frame since it will change and who knows if there will be a storm at all. LOL...18z GFS has a stalled boundary (running north to south) over east/central NYS, while ripples of lp ride along....for about 3 days until the mother wave induces extreme cyclogenisis....up into NS Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I'm scheduled to fly from Charlotte to Albany on Monday. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 BTW, both Montague and Buffalo radars are down! They better get their sh!t together before Wed..! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 so sick of the kbuf radar being down. jesus they cant get it together. and often during high impact events for gods sake. looking forward to the 0z nam. typical nam will build moisture up until 24 hrs out and then cut in half. which is ok as long as you expect it, which i do. these models often show over 16" a few days out, you would think the computers would self-correct. it is very rare to get 16" plus as totals around here (or anywhere) but according to the models they happen several times each winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 LOL...18z GFS has a stalled boundary (running north to south) over east/central NYS, while ripples of lp ride along....for about 3 days until the mother wave induces extreme cyclogenisis....up into NS Maine. I saw that...yeah, that happens all the time! I guess we are officially into the spring cutoff season, where models will get more fantastical and less accurate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 December 2012, both BUF and SYR Thanks. I don't even remember that storm. There have been so few notable ones here, albeit frequent snow, that it all sort of blends together after a while. Before I lived here I could remember individual snow events very clearly, as they were infrequent. Not anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Thanks. I don't even remember that storm. There have been so few notable ones here, albeit frequent snow, that it all sort of blends together after a while. Before I lived here I could remember individual snow events very clearly, as they were infrequent. Not anymore. I recall a significant synoptic storm during that period, of course it happened when I was home for winter break. I have a good feeling about this storm though. The model agreement on track is striking and we're less than 72 hours from the starting time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 SREF's come north and dramatically increase qpf for w/c/n NYS...mixing will be an issue for southern tier...as SREF's see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 NAM went about 40 miles south and a little weaker. Still long range for it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 SREFs just ridiculous for Rochester, with 2 of them over 25". the average is 12.5". Lock it in, I'll take it! Nam is a bit south with its 0z run but the snowfall map still has a 12" line in southern monroe county and all of the fingerlakes. Syracuse looks good too. Buf wants this thing to wrap up a bit earlier than is currently progged but still has 10". This one has been fun to watch and I must say the models are really zeroing in on a sollution. But with so many variables with this storm, I wont feel real good about it until 36 hrs out. We shall see what happens. Good Luck WNY and CNY!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 It'll be a fine line here in ENY/NENY (Saratoga area), but CNY especially can withstand some movement either way with this. Hopefully ENY can get in on some of this too without screwing the rest of Upstate too badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 The chances of 12"+ aren't great with this storm, we are dealing with an open 500-700mb wave, we aren't closing off mid-level centers to the south. We've had I think 2 storms this year where portions of WNY got 12+ from synoptic events. You can't single out one spotter at KBuf for all synoptic event totals. I believe Lockport hit 15 inches in one storm, and someplace in the Southern Tier hit 12-14 in another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 GFS: NAM: SREF Plumes Mean for KBUF at 11.4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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