BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 hmm...idk. I'd say I'm more concerned with the storm being weaker and east (less phased) than the storm being overly phased and risking rain in WNY. If you look at the GEFS ensemble mean and the ECMWF ensemble mean, they are both weaker and further east, out towards the 40/70 benchmark. Yeah I noticed that to, the GGEM has a much more amplified solution in comparison to the other models and ensembles. Seems like a powerful storm will develop, just a matter of where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 It's tough to beat that 94.7% peak. We might have a shot at it late next week depending on how cold it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 GGEM and GFS lose the storm. No phase, far to progressive. If Euro loses it, onto the next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GGEM and GFS lose the storm. No phase, far to progressive. If Euro loses it, onto the next! my worry exactly. wny has been shafted most of this winter. and this winter is almost done. rochester is below average snowfall in this brutally cold winter (partly due to bad msrmts at the airport). a tale of two or three cities this winter as buf and syr have outperformed. it would be sad to not see a big synoptic even try and brush us in this late winter period after this let down of a synoptic pattern. and i remember last aprils storm promise and die. ugh. come on euro. hold tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 It's tough to beat that 94.7% peak. We might have a shot at it late next week depending on how cold it gets.the ice got crushed today due to an east wind that put huge cuts and cracks throughout the lakes. tomorrow we will be lucky to register 80 percent. not to say it wont grow again substantially if the 2 week temps verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 my worry exactly. wny has been shafted most of this winter. and this winter is almost done. rochester is below average snowfall in this brutally cold winter (partly due to bad msrmts at the airport). a tale of two or three cities this winter as buf and syr have outperformed. it would be sad to not see a big synoptic even try and brush us in this late winter period after this let down of a synoptic pattern. and i remember last aprils storm promise and die. ugh. come on euro. hold tight. Dave, Rochester hasn't done as well as much of WNY and CNY in terms of snowfall, but it is not below normal. Rochester has 86.3", which is 3.2" above normal for the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 FWIW both 6z & 12z GEFS still show the storm impacting the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I'll take GEM 12 please Alex for $1000.... http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=144&Day=&RunTime=12&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 I'll take GEM 12 please Alex for $1000.... http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=144&Day=&RunTime=12&Type=pnm Ill take that to. Euro is a solid hit, especially for areas just southeast of here and into Central NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I'll take GEM 12 please Alex for $1000.... http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=144&Day=&RunTime=12&Type=pnm I'm with you....but this has been more of a GEM 10 winter so I'm not going to get too excited until we see the whites of this storm's eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 GFS very similar to Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 Huge hit for the entire sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 European Ensemble Mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 European Ensemble Mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I think we get a decent synoptic snowfall in CNY/WNY. Remains to be seen but a 6-10" bogey is out there. Plus, at the gym tonight, I saw TWC already pimping EC snowfall potential (12+, Lulz). They are never wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 this time of year is always good for a blockbuster. now for the ingredients. watching closely. id say we're at 50/50 for a decent to big event. about the same as i felt yesterday. more proof today but with a bit less intensity on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 GFS + GGEM suppressed and southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 The models swings continue. GGEM has rain to snow. Euro is a solid hit for most of the forum as well as the GFS, GFS has less QPF than the Euro. GFS ensembles are a tad southeast from the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Today's 12Z Euro has a 995 mb slp over western KY...which turns into a 976 mb slp over BOS at 120 hrs. Not too shabby. Below are the 700mb RH panels with slp to give an idea of how the Euro unfolds this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 Today's 12Z Euro has a 995 mb slp over western KY...which turns into a 976 mb slp over BOS at 120 hrs. Not too shabby. Below are the 700mb RH panels with slp to give an idea of how the Euro unfolds this. GFS swing and a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 GFS swing and a miss. 18z ensembles still show some decent hits: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 18z ensembles still show some decent hits: Definitely a few nice ones there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I'd say that the best looking gefs suite we've seen so far. Better agreement on that run too. P008 ftw lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 I'd say that the best looking gefs suite we've seen so far. Better agreement on that run too. P008 ftw lol. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I hadn't checked in a while but it appears the gfs has been quite poor compared to the other global models in verification of late. Usually, the gfs is 3rd, behind the EC and the UKMET. It has fallen behind the CMC now, and significantly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 I hadn't checked in a while but it appears the gfs has been quite poor compared to the other global models in verification of late. Usually, the gfs is 3rd, behind the EC and the UKMET. It has fallen behind the CMC now, and significantly so. GFS is back on board. This model mayhem is awesome. 6-8 inches across most of WNY. 6-12 across central NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 ...and GGEM goes back east....W/CNY get little...pretty crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 But the GFS gives us a hit.... again. its on, its off, its on, its off... etc. Im remaining hopefull based on the timing of this and the general dynamics. There will be a storm. More hope for this one than the overall trend all winter of driving them south and east and off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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