BuffaloWeather Posted March 5, 2014 Author Share Posted March 5, 2014 GGEM and Euro maintain large hit for most of this forum in a week. Still in lala land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 It's gonna be a chilly spring along the lakeshores. What is this Spring you speak of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 What is this Spring you speak of? Last May.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 That's the most ice cover since February 1979 I believe. Yep. Nearing 92% now February 1979 (94.7 percent peak) had a greater ice coverage. http://www.wunderground.com/news/great-lakes-ice-cover-record-march-20140305 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 NWS BGM must be bored sh*tless...snipped from their AFD today: HAVE YOU HEARD ABOUT THE BIG STORM FOR NEXT WEEK YET? WE WILLCONTINUE TO REINFORCE BOTH HERE THROUGH OUR FORECAST DISCUSSIONAND ON SOCIAL MEDIA, THAT LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS (DAY 5 ANDBEYOND) ARE NOT OFTEN VERY ACCURATE. SEE THIS PAST "STORM" AS ANEXAMPLE FOR OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM IN PARTICULAR FOR NEXT WEEK,WON`T BE OVER LAND WHERE WE HAVE A BETTER OBSERVING NETWORK UNTILMONDAY AT THE EARLIEST. WITH THAT SAID THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEKLOOKS POTENTIALLY STORMY. BOTH THE 12Z EURO AND CANADIAN, WHICHHAS PERFORMED WELL THIS YEAR, ARE SHOWING A LARGE STORM MOVINGOUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE NORTHEAST US IN THEWEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS ANDFOR NOW WENT WITH 30% POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW, WITH A MIX IN NEPA.THIS SHOULD BE FUN TO WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 NWS BGM must be bored sh*tless...snipped from their AFD today: HAVE YOU HEARD ABOUT THE BIG STORM FOR NEXT WEEK YET? WE WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE BOTH HERE THROUGH OUR FORECAST DISCUSSION AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA, THAT LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS (DAY 5 AND BEYOND) ARE NOT OFTEN VERY ACCURATE. SEE THIS PAST "STORM" AS AN EXAMPLE FOR OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM IN PARTICULAR FOR NEXT WEEK, WON`T BE OVER LAND WHERE WE HAVE A BETTER OBSERVING NETWORK UNTIL MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST. WITH THAT SAID THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS POTENTIALLY STORMY. BOTH THE 12Z EURO AND CANADIAN, WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL THIS YEAR, ARE SHOWING A LARGE STORM MOVING OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE NORTHEAST US IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS AND FOR NOW WENT WITH 30% POPS FOR MAINLY SNOW, WITH A MIX IN NEPA. THIS SHOULD BE FUN TO WATCH. There is literally nothing to watch weather wise except that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 -8 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 All time record low for the month of March set in Rochester today. Pretty awesome -9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 All time record low for the month of March set in Rochester today. Pretty awesome -9 The microclimates are amazing around the lakes...wasn't nearly as cold in BUF or NIA. I've even seen 5+ degree differences in a 1 mile area in Webster (from Ridge Rd. to just south) during this cold. It's call 'Ridge Road' for a reason, I guess...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 -11 in Ithaca last night. Crazy stuff. Also, the Euro just spat out a casual 30-40 inches for all of CNY and WNY for a week from today... the 21st anniversary of the Superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 -11 in Ithaca last night. Crazy stuff. Also, the Euro just spat out a casual 30-40 inches for all of CNY and WNY for a week from today... the 21st anniversary of the Superstorm. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutch Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 wow isn't that what ya'd call weather porn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Hot off the press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 -11 in Ithaca last night. Crazy stuff. Also, the Euro just spat out a casual 30-40 inches for all of CNY and WNY for a week from today... the 21st anniversary of the Superstorm. Pretty bullish of the NWS out of Buffalo to drop a HWO for the potential of this storm next week. It's a long shot, but it's something.. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SNOW STORM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE STORM SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM TRACK WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Hot off the press. Thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It's a nice signal. At least it's something in an otherwise depressing cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Definitely some cool visible satellite images today over the lakes! I'm still amazed at the ice cover over Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Definitely some cool visible satellite images today over the lakes! I'm still amazed at the ice cover over Lake Ontario. No ice on the finger lakes, how deep are those things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Pretty bullish of the NWS out of Buffalo to drop a HWO for the potential of this storm next week. It's a long shot, but it's something.. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SNOW STORM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE STORM SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM TRACK WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. How many more model runs to get through? SEVERAL VERY POTENT SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILLBUCKLE A NEAR ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF 60N EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE RESULTING AMPLIFICATION...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE NO EXCEPTION AS ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE WILL DIVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP. THE NAEFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING SUCH A STORM FOR A COUPLE DAYS NOW...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING. SUCH IS EXPECTED THOUGH FROM A FORECAST FROM THIS RANGE. WHILE NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA IS CURRENTLY IN THE `SWEET SPOT` OF THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS STILL BEING SUGGESTED FOR PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPIN UP IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT...TRACK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR REGION DEEPLY ENTRENCHED IN THE COLD AIR AND MOST LIKELY WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...MERCURY READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WILL DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL AS WE PROGRESS DEEPER INTO THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 How many more model runs to get through? Quite a few, at least it will be fun to track where ever a storm ends up. Would be cool to get one last hurrah before the winter ends in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The op gfs also has the a storm, but it gets there a bit differently than the euro. The euro has a shortwave phase with southern stream, yielding a bigger storm. The GFS misses the phase, but still has a substantial storm purely out of the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Last year at this time: (BTW, NWS lists 2011-12 as having "no ice"): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 No ice on the finger lakes, how deep are those things. It really is amazing. Ive gotten this question from a lot of people I work with this year, and I've found its important to explain that not only is it about volume, but surface area. A voluminous lake with small surface area just can't cycle and move enough water to ever fully exhaust the supply of thermal energy. This little graphic shows it very well. Ontario's profile is much different than the square shapes of all the other lakes. A similar graphic for Cayuga and Seneca would be even more striking. I have also read that Seneca has a natural current that also inhibits ice formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 It really is amazing. Ive gotten this question from a lot of people I work with this year, and I've found its important to explain that not only is it about volume, but surface area. A voluminous lake with small surface area just can't cycle and move enough water to ever fully exhaust the supply of thermal energy. This little graphic shows it very well. Ontario's profile is much different than the square shapes of all the other lakes. Great Lakes volume vs Surface area.png A similar graphic for Cayuga and Seneca would be even more striking. I have also read that Seneca has a natural current that also inhibits ice formation. Great graphic Delta... I also think (maybe something has been studied) that there must be a bit of a moderating effect from the upper lakes (especially early in the season CAA events) that impacts the upper lakes moreso than Ontario, due to the modifying effects. thus some of the cooling from the given airmass is "eaten up" by the upper lakes. Obviously with Erie being so shallow, there isn't quite the effect there. Imagine if Erie was where Superior is located....LES events over by X-mas!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 12z gefs individual members @ 144 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 12z gefs individual members @ 144 hrs. Impressive agreement on a bomb somewhere in the region. Definitely something to track in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 12z gefs individual members @ 144 hrs. Tasty...What are the chances in your opinion of both jets phasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Tasty...What are the chances in your opinion of both jets phasing? hmm...idk. I'd say I'm more concerned with the storm being weaker and east (less phased) than the storm being overly phased and risking rain in WNY. If you look at the GEFS ensemble mean and the ECMWF ensemble mean, they are both weaker and further east, out towards the 40/70 benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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