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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Middle of Winter


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Got drenched in Erie county last two days.

 

...ERIE COUNTY...
3 NE CHEEKTOWAGA 1.86 700 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 1.66 700 AM 2/21 ASOS
3 E WILLIAMSVILLE 1.64 700 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
1 NW WILLIAMSVILLE 1.40 700 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
S DEPEW 1.31 600 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
2 S AKRON 1.29 800 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
3 ENE AMHERST 1.27 745 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
3 WSW ELMA 1.21 700 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
3 NE TONAWANDA 1.14 845 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
2 SE GLENWOOD 1.14 800 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
5 NNE AMHERST 1.10 800 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
WSW HAMBURG 1.06 700 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
2 ENE COLDEN 1.04 800 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
ESE KENMORE 1.00 530 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
ENE EAST AURORA 1.00 700 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
1 W COLDEN 0.96 855 AM 2/21 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 S WALES 0.92 728 AM 2/21 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 SSW BLASDELL 0.92 700 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
2 W WEST SENECA 0.86 700 AM 2/21 COCORAHS

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It looks like we could be setting up for some significant lake effect off Lake Ontario starting tonight through at least Tuesday. As cold air deepens and equilibrium levels rise tonight a band should develop east of the lake. The flow should veer slightly pushing the band south tomorrow. The question is how far south does it make it. Another question is how much does diurnal influences disrupt the band during the day. With the lack of significant synoptic systems in the near future at least we have the mesoscale to keep things interesting.

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000

FXUS61 KBGM 232116

AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

416 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, SETTING

THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK. WHILE

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE LATE TONIGHT

THROUGH TUESDAY, SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW

YORK. ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH

HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

400 PM UPDATE...

HOPEFULLY YOU ENJOYED THE DAY BECAUSE THINGS ARE ABOUT TO CHANGE.

A WELL ADVERTISED CHUNK OF ARCTIC IS READY TO MOVE BACK INTO OUR

AREA THIS WEEK. THE FIRST SHOT, WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO SET

OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LATER TONIGHT. PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD WITH LAKE

DELTA T'S APPROACHING 20, AND INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO 7KFT

MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH GREAT SNOW GROWTH IN THE

DENDRITIC LAYER AND A MEAN FLOW BETWEEN 270 AND 280 FROM 04Z

TONIGHT THROUGH 02Z TUESDAY SUPPORT WARNING LEVEL SNOWS OVER OUR

AREA. OF COURSE LAKE EFFECT IS NEVER THAT EASY. DESPITE THE ABOVE,

CONFIDENCE IS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION

MODELS SHOWING THE BAND WAVERING QUITE A BIT THROUGHOUT THE EVENT,

LIKE A FIRE HOSE. IN ADDITION CONCERNED DIURNAL EFFECTS MAY CHANGE

A SINGLE SOLID BAND EARLY MONDAY, INTO SOMETHING MORE DIFFUSE LATE

IN THE DAY. WITH ALL THAT SAID WITH A POTENTIAL LONG PERIOD OF A

270/280 FLOW, FELT A WARNING WAS WARRANTED FOR ALL OF ONEIDA

COUNTY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW, ESPECIALLY TOWARD 280, WOULD FAVOR THE

BAND AT TIMES RIGHT ALONG THE MADISON/ONEIDA BORDER, THUS THE

SOUTHERN ONEIDA ZONE IS JUSTIFIED. BASED ON AN INCREASING MOISTURE

PROFILE AND THE LEAST AMOUNT OF DIURNAL EFFECTS, THE BEST TIME FOR

THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z. LOOKING

FOR 5 TO 10 INCHES THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY IN THE WARNING AREA.

HIGHEST AMOUNTS TOWARD OSWEGO COUNTY.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, THE CALL IS MUCH,

MUCH TOUGHER. THE MODELS, NAMELY THE NAM, HAVE HAD A SOUTHWARD

BIAS ALL WINTER WITH BAND PLACEMENT. JUST LOOK AT THE 4KM ARW

BRINGING THE BAND DOWN INTO METRO SYRACUSE BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH THAT

IN MIND THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTION TO BE

DANGEROUSLY CLOSE BUT JUST NORTH OF THE ADVISORY AREAS. I WOULDN'T

BE SHOCKED TO NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH FOR MOST

OF ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE

EXTREME NORTH OF BOTH COUNTIES THE BAND MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO

PRODUCE 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. ITS A REALLY CLOSE CALL BUT I FELT

THE ADVISORY WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH BUFFALO'S

ADVISORIES/WARNINGS TO MY WEST. I TRIED TO STRESS THE NORTHERN

PART OF THE COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY AND NOT METRO SYRACUSE.

FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY AREA (SEE BREWERTON) WE

WENT 2" TO 6". KEEP IN MIND THIS IS JUST FOR

MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM! OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS, WE

SHOULD SEE A GOOD SPRAY OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF NY STATE DUE TO

INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING HELPING FOR SOME CELLULAR SNOW SHOWERS.

ACCUMS A DUSTING TO AN INCH AT MOST.

BEYOND LAKE SNOWS, THE BIG STORY FOR EVERYONE WILL BE THE

COLDER AIR. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S MONDAY WILL FEEL LIKE A DRAMATIC

DROP GIVEN OUR SUNSHINE AND 40S OF RECENT MEMORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

400 PM UPDATE...

OUR 270/280 FLOW FROM MONDAY LOOKS TO VEER SLIGHTLY TOWARD 290

MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. I AM A BIT LEARY THIS WILL PAN

OUT GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD BIAS MENTIONED ABOVE, BUT ITS HARD TO

ARGUE AGAINST GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON THIS I WENT LONG WITH

THE ADVISORY/WARNING END TIME AND JUST RAN IT THROUGH TUESDAY

AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE DURING THIS TIME, MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY

TUESDAY, THAT WE HAVE OUR BEST SHOT AT THE GREATEST SOUTHWARD

MOVEMENT OF THE BAND. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS LIKELY, MOSTLY IN THE

ADVISORY (3 TO 7 INCH) RANGE. LAKE SNOWS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY

NIGHT BEFORE THE BAND SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AS A REINFORCING

SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES OUR WAY. DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S

WILL BE FOLLOWED BY TEENS WEDNESDAY.

As per this discussion it looks like here in extreme northern Onondaga County we could be looking at 5 to 13 inches by Tuesday morning. There's a possibility we could get more if the band sets up further south during the day tomorrow. Time to freshen up the glacial snowpack that's left after this thaw.

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Agree that 270-280 flow on models usually means hello Tug Hill. Again. It'll probably drop into no. onondaga/madison counties briefly at some point  monday night but not expecting much more than nuisance snow here, in extreme no. onondaga cty.  At least it will be cold as hell later this week. :axe:

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that band swept thru with a vengeance! whiteout conditions, and snowed

quite heavily.  mother nature not going to be fooled by a couple of 40*

days here in late Feb. the calender still says WINTER!

and it looks like more to come

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Looks like February should come in with a mean temperature between 19 and 20 degrees in BUF...somewhere near 7 degrees below normal.  This will be the 2nd coldest February since 1979, falling a bit short of February 2007.  

 

There is some support for a decent snow event on Monday, March 3rd.  

 

Oh goodie a Miller A. :axe: 

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Not sure it ends up a full Miller A.  Looks similar to those few 6-10" synoptic events we've had a few times this winter.  

 

Oh Alright. Keep us updated. You have been MIA quite a bit this winter. I have migrated over to the Great Lakes/Ontario sub-forum. ^_^ Picked up a nice burst of snow while I was at the gym, car was completely covered.

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Looks like February should come in with a mean temperature between 19 and 20 degrees in BUF...somewhere near 7 degrees below normal.  This will be the 2nd coldest February since 1979, falling a bit short of February 2007.  

 

There is some support for a decent snow event on Monday, March 3rd.  

Toronto has the chance to surpass 2007 and be the coldest since 1979. It'll be close!

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Quite an impressive band off of frozen L. Erie, just south of Dunkirk!  Low level convergence + low level ambient moisture ftw!

Meanwhile, the unfrozen lake produced near 20" in my old stomping grounds in Parish (per my mother) as of 5pm.

 

Yeah, the warmup + strong winds created from openings in the lake. It is not fully frozen now. Theres quite a bit of open ice near Cleveland and some cracks in the ice as well.

 

t1.14053.1540.LakeErie.143.250m.jpg

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