BuffaloWeather Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Cocarahs report of 23.8 inches just south of Watertown overnight. Can anyone verify that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That looks like an error. I'll bet it was supposed to go in the total snow column. The other reporting stations up there are only in the 2 to 3 inch range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRLady Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It was an error...only 3 in. last night here... Watertown and southward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Warmup next week looking increasingly muted. Gone from flat out blow torch and deluges of rain to what almost looks like intermittently milder weather with some light rain for 3-4 days. About 1" of snow today and tonight around Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 It was an error...only 3 in. last night here... Watertown and southward... I thought so. I saw a fairly intense band of LES before I went to bed, thought it might of been a surprise event. But never expected totals like that haha. 2-4 inches makes more sense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 Warmup next week looking increasingly muted. Gone from flat out blow torch and deluges of rain to what almost looks like intermittently milder weather with some light rain for 3-4 days. About 1" of snow today and tonight around Syracuse. Seriously the models have been ALL over lately. It went from insane Torch with 3-5 days of temps in the uppers 40s-mid 50s to max temperatures hitting 40-42 for a few days. Most models underestimate the warmth and downsloping flow especially in WNY. I am pretty bullish on a decent event snow wise on Monday-Tuesday timeframe. Most models show a very quick hitting WWA event across most of the sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Warmup next week looking increasingly muted. Gone from flat out blow torch and deluges of rain to what almost looks like intermittently milder weather with some light rain for 3-4 days. About 1" of snow today and tonight around Syracuse. Good! I want this winter to last it's been awesome haha! Please don't do too much damage to our snow pack . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Definitely encouraging words from BGM: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MODEL TRENDS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHSIN 40S THEN U30S SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS GOINGTHROUGH MUCH OF WHICH COULD BE RAIN OR A MIX. FAST FLOW ALOFT SOATTM DOES NOT APPEAR ANY STORM WILL HAVE MORE THAN HALF AN INCHLIQUID WITH IT. I'm confident our snowpack will survive a few days in the 40's especially with no heavy rainers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I feel like I'm living inside of a snow globe this morning. Since about 8:30 it's been snowing large flakes with hardly any wind. Probably picked up about two and a half inches of fluff that I could clear with my breath. The lake effect band producing this barely shows up on Montague radar. Doppler 9 shows it better - not impressive but centered right over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I feel like I'm living inside of a snow globe this morning. Since about 8:30 it's been snowing large flakes with hardly any wind. Probably picked up about two and a half inches of fluff that I could clear with my breath. The lake effect band producing this barely shows up on Montague radar. Doppler 9 shows it better - not impressive but centered right over me. same here over in Clay...probably picked up an inch of fluff. If we could only get this kind of flake size in a "real" storm, we'd have something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 SREF Plumes at around 5 inches for this next event for KBUF. Hopefully we can get that and go over 100 inches on the year before the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 Right back into the cooler after this brief warm-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 One of the best snowflakes so far this season, i'd say rate is close to 1.5"/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 SREF Plumes at around 5 inches for this next event for KBUF. Hopefully we can get that and go over 100 inches on the year before the torch. Nice! i haven't checked the models lately so it looks like that warmup might be brief after all, i wouldn't mind for this to continue till April haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 Nice! i haven't checked the models lately so it looks like that warmup might be brief after all, i wouldn't mind for this to continue till April haha! I did some research on some of those photos you posted of blizzard of 1977. A few of them were not from the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I did some research on some of those photos you posted of blizzard of 1977. A few of them were not from the blizzard. LOL which photos were they? -Edit: Send me a PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 SREF Plumes at around 5 inches for this next event for KBUF. Hopefully we can get that and go over 100 inches on the year before the torch. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS MID AND UPPERLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL QUICKLY LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND WILL MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE PROCESS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BOTH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIFT...WITH THE LATTER ARISING FROM A COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET...STRONG DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND CORRESPONDING HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE FRONT FLANK OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENTLY COLD TEMPS...THIS WILL ADD UP TO A NEAR CERTAINTY OF A PERIOD OF SNOW THAT WILL BEGIN BETWEEN MID MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND THE WEE HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES...THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY. A 12Z MODEL QPF/WPC CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A ROUGH TWO TENTHS TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF PRECIP OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A ROUGH 2-4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN MOST PLACES...WITH SOME LOWER-END ADVISORY-TYPE AMOUNTS NOT AT ALL OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... ESPECIALLY IF IT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH AS QUICKLY AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORY FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS AND SOME LINGERING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES ON EXACTLY WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE...BUT WOULD NOT AT ALL BE SURPRISED IF ONE IS EVENTUALLY NEEDED AT SOME POINT FOR AT LEAST SOME PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 Squall line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Check out the 12Z Euro at 168 hrs...still in sort of dumb-f*cker range but it has a nice slp about over NYC and a solid 700 mb def band over CNY/WNY. GFS not as far west or developed (no surprise there). Something to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 Check out the 12Z Euro at 168 hrs...still in sort of dumb-f*cker range but it has a nice slp about over NYC and a solid 700 mb def band over CNY/WNY. GFS not as far west or developed (no surprise there). Something to monitor. Yeah it has been on the Euro for the last few runs. But it's still really far out. Picked up close to 2 inches of Fluff the last couple days. Snow depth is between 8-9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 well 00Z Euro seems to lose the storm, or shove it way east. CMC has it going west or right over NY State...this is still out at 168 hrs or so. But its the next decent shot at a snowstorm, other than tonight/Tuesday minor system. snowed all day yday but only about 1.5" to show for it here. Total snow depth still hanging in at 24" or so. That'll take a hit later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 Should get a few inches tonight, but most models have cut way back on QPF. Looks like some dry air and both slugs of precip go north and south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 The WNY area has the lowest snow depth out of nearly the entire Northeast/Great Lakes area. Pretty insane since we average/received more snow than most of the regions. Most of Michigan has 15-30 inches of snow depth and even Illinois/Indiana/Ohio has 10-15 inches. Most of PA is around 2 feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Radar has been lighting up all night and right now but I haven't even seen a flurry. Virga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Radar has been lighting up all night and right now but I haven't even seen a flurry. Virga? Snowing steadily down here in Otsego County for the last 3 hours. About 1 inch OTG so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Anyone remember this gem? http://blog.syracuse.com/indepth/2007/12/snow010594.pdf Jan 94 - still to this day probably the most intense snow I've ever been in. I was out cross country skiing for 2 hours and over 9" of snow fell. It was amazing, wish I had taken pics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Anyone remember this gem? http://blog.syracuse.com/indepth/2007/12/snow010594.pdf Jan 94 - still to this day probably the most intense snow I've ever been in. I was out cross country skiing for 2 hours and over 9" of snow fell. It was amazing, wish I had taken pics... I remember that storm well. I was living in the Mohawk Valley which didn't get hit as bad as the Syracuse area. It was a coastal storm that went negative tilt. A band of extremely intense snow propagated to the northwest off the ocean and hit Syracuse around noon. What ensued was similar to what happened in Atlanta this year. Employers let their people go home and schools were dismissed at the height of the storm. A foot of snow fell in 2 hours which made roads impassable and traffic came to a halt on all major roads. The only other event that I witnessed that compared to this storm was a lake effect storm in February 2004 that dropped almost 2 feet in 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2014 Author Share Posted February 19, 2014 Moderate/Heavy snow last 30 or so minutes here. Hit a high of 47. Now 32 degrees. Crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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