Revracer800 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 After this dump of lake effect we don't need another major dump in this part of the county lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Phoenix ended up with about 15" of LES. Includes the 2" this evening. 25" in a week is pretty good. Ahhh. the Feb. 2007 noreaster. Dave Longley had all of CNY in 2 to 3 feet the day before but went with 1 to 2 as it unfolded. Heaviest QPF kept getting pushed east thereafter. Gravestone nailed it! Phoenix closed early but most all other schools closed on that Wednesday. Closed on Friday after major LES Thursday night. Nice 3 day storm so to speak. Last big one if I recall(synoptic and LES). This was followed up in April with the big 8" to 18" snowfall from a powerful Noreaster.(snow to rain then back to heavy wet snow later Sunday night). About 8" of slop here in Phoenix. Someone posted that the SREF's(not sure here) are wetter and warmer for Thursday. More precip in CNY. reminds me of the Presidents Day storm 10+ years ago when models played catch up and we ended up with 8 to 10.(Eichorn had us in 12 to 18). Was a big storm on the coast. Can't remember the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Latest SREFs have a mean of 5" here... do i dare to dream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Watertown is at it again. Down to 17 below! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well, I didn't have a lot of time to fully consider points south as I was on a CC for work and at the gym this evening. But here's my contest entry. Go West young man! CAR: 7 BGR: 12.5 PWM: 3 CON: 11 BTV: 10.5 BOS: 3 HYA: 1 ORH: 6.5 PVD: 1.8 BDR: 2.5 BDL: 4.5 ALB: 8.5 BGM: 5 ISP: 1.5 JFK: 1 ABE: 4 MDT: 3 PHL: 2 ACY: 0.5 EWR: 4 BWI: 5 IAD: 7 DCA: 2 SBY: 0 RIC: 4 ORF: 0 RDU: 2.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Watertown is at it again. Down to 17 below! WSYR 9 radar is usually the best although their site is so loaded up w/ junk that its annoying and slows performance. And lately, it seems they have reduced their radar loop capability to where it's dogsh*t most of the time. It used to be great. Maybe its just my iMac that doesn't play well w/ their site but my P.O.S. PC at work has similar issues on their site. A few weeks ago they were in the high 30s below . And yeah I used to use weather undergrounds radar all the time but I've moved to WSYR. I don't like CNYcentrals at all. EDIT: Found this pic from syracuse.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 00Z GFS out...takes SLP from about HAT to just outside Cape Cod then up to about Halifax. Plausible solution. It still throws meager qpf to its west in the mid atlantic, which looks odd. It then bombs as its passing New England, dumping precip about 100 miles to its west. ALB is fringed by this solution w/ maybe 3-7" of snow. Tight gradient along the Hudson Valley. BGM to SYR maybe pick up 1-3", prob higher end of range towards BGM. We'll see what the other products offer. I have seen many systems w/ tight gradients but this one looks funky. SNE really on the bubble with this run. The mix line penetrates well into Mass and into southern NH, SE Maine and then falls back to the coast as the storm passes - which is typical. However, a lot of their qpf is depicted on the ass end of the storm as the 850 line crashes SE - very complex setup and always a dicey proposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GEM moved further east w/ 00z run. We shall see what the Euro brings. Right now current watches look about right. Except down towards NYC, LI and coastal CT, where they will get mostly rain w/ a few inches of snow on front/back ends. NWS still has plenty of time to adjust obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't like guidance from 0z for CPA and ENY. The SLP is pretty far offshore (the UK is closer, but east of previous runs). The intense front end precip quickly slides northeast into SNE. And then as the SLP rapidly deepens, the wraparound precip pulls inward towards the center of circulation, staying largely east of inland and upstate areas. Before 0z, it really looked like we were trending towards a coastal hugger. We seem to have taken a step back this cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't like guidance from 0z for CPA and ENY. The SLP is pretty far offshore (the UK is closer, but east of previous runs). The intense front end precip quickly slides northeast into SNE. And then as the SLP rapidly deepens, the wraparound precip pulls inward towards the center of circulation, staying largely east of inland and upstate areas. Before 0z, it really looked like we were trending towards a coastal hugger. We seem to have taken a step back this cycle If the EC and its ensembles tick east tonight then we might be in trouble, but if it remains similar to 12z I'd be pretty confident in 6"+ for parts of CPA and ENY. The eastward trend in the models during the final 24-36 hours seems common with these phasing situations though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Watertown down to -22 with a windchill of -36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If the EC and its ensembles tick east tonight then we might be in trouble, but if it remains similar to 12z I'd be pretty confident in 6"+ for parts of CPA and ENY. The eastward trend in the models during the final 24-36 hours seems common with these phasing situations though. 00Z EC held serve....12Z NAM coming around to EC idea & w/ warmer thermal profiles - particularly for ENY down to SNE. 700mb structure looks better also for CNY/ENY. I'd actually expect the mix w/ sleet to approach ALB, probably stay just S&E. BGM should be in good position to get 6-10" out of this IMO...ALB higher providing they don't mix. Track of slp looks to be in tight, as per EC, and riding up over eastern SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 257 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014 NYZ017-018-024-025-132000- /O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0005.140213T1200Z-140214T1500Z/ SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AUBURN...SYRACUSE...ELMIRA...ITHACA 257 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER REGIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. * ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 5...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES. * TIMING...STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...GENERALLY BETWEEN 7 AND 11 AM. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD SLOWLY COME TO AN END FRIDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH. * IMPACTS...SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY START TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL ON THURSDAY. THE EVENING RUSH HOUR ON THURSDAY AND THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AND/OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT [email protected]. && $$ MJ This may not be the biggest storm for our area but considering what we were looking at a couple of days ago I'll take it. My over /under for northern Onondaga county is 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hey, at least we get a lil something . Next week there is a threat for us too I've heard. Haven't really looked into it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Off topic, but holy cow...has anyone ever seen this wording from the NWS? IMPACTS...THESE HIGH ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WILL MAKE TRAVELIMPOSSIBLE. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A CATASTROPHIC EVENT. That's for Georgia obviously not here but that's insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Off topic, but holy cow...has anyone ever seen this wording from the NWS? IMPACTS...THESE HIGH ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WILL MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A CATASTROPHIC EVENT. That's for Georgia obviously not here but that's insane. Every 'threat' in today's Chicken LIttle post-911 society is over hyped. It's so that 'the powers that be' look like they are doing something. NWS has been sucked into that vortex also. The 'c' word in their statement is in the eye of the beholder. That said, ice storms obviously can be damaging. Most significant impact will be loss of power - likely for extended periods. The 'impossible travel' is a more temporary problem that most people with half an ounce of brains can avoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 2-5 predicted here. We'll see. At least ratios should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the minister Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah Gravity Wave, I'm wondering if we can get a surprise event out of this. And at this point, I'm not even sure I want it! Time will tell how much west/north this thing will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRLady Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Check-Out-The-Jaw-Dropping-Snowfall-Totals-245243081.html Watertown N.Y. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Impressive totals up north @BRLady. And its mid February...a lot of game left. Looks like a few chances for SN- over the next several days, maybe some LES East and SE of Lake Ontario this weekend. Storm depiction on NWP is shaping up about as I thought...minor accumulations up I-81 towards SYR/ART/MSS and Warning snow making its way back to a BGM - UCA line. Ignore qpf on most models, which seem to be struggling more than usual w/ this field for this system. ALB gets a decent snowstorm out of this for sure (10-14") w/ any sleet mix likely staying to their south (Kingston area and SE). I'm still thinking this turns into a messy gullywasher for NYC, LI, coastal CT up to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The slight east trends have me a bit uneasy out here, but hopefully they stop tonight. Impressive totals up north @BRLady. And its mid February...a lot of game left. Looks like a few chances for SN- over the next several days, maybe some LES East and SE of Lake Ontario this weekend. Storm depiction on NWP is shaping up about as I thought...minor accumulations up I-81 towards SYR/ART/MSS and Warning snow making its way back to a BGM - UCA line. Ignore qpf on most models, which seem to be struggling more than usual w/ this field for this system. ALB gets a decent snowstorm out of this for sure (10-14") w/ any sleet mix likely staying to their south (Kingston area and SE). I'm still thinking this turns into a messy gullywasher for NYC, LI, coastal CT up to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 OT but it bears saying: 'CUSE BITCHEZ!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutch Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 what a finish! kid can handle the pressure for a freshman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 OMG. Tyler Ennis I love you. Now lets sneak in a few inches of snow from this storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 00Z NAM is a pretty good shellacking for ALB. It's qpf field is too wrapped up given the 700 mb structure, IMO. As far as SYR area goes, we still get fringed w/ 2-5" probably being a good call by KBGM. The CCB / def band will be more west than NAM shows, and for that matter the SLP likely also. Probably by 50-75 miles. SNE is going to roast. Might as well cook a turkey out in the driveway it will be so hot. That's my thought still. edit: BTV is going to rock w/ this system. The only way it doesn't is if the storm right hooks (while being captured by the UL trough during phasing mind you), and stays outside of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Here's one area that's escaping the "Wrath of Pax" or whateverthef*ck these idiots are calling this storm: the coastal plain of SC and NC. Pretty good dryslot in there right now. Keep yur eye on that feature as this moves north. edit: I don't have lightning data at home but I'd wager that blob just south of HAT is convective...and its headed due North. KHAT almost 50F last hour. That is headed into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 There's a halo around the moon tonight and if folklore is to be believed we're about 12 hours away from the onset of snow. It does appear that the leading edge of the snow shield is ahead of schedule. Snow should start in CNY mid afternoon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The latest RAP has 16" back home, without counting the back half of the storm. Are there any law schools in Watertown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRLady Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 LAW SCHOOLS!!!! LOL! No,I am sorry to say...Just a 2 year community college.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 12Z NAM and GFS are upping the ante for precipitation in CNY. Both have us over .5 inch thru tomorrow morning. It will be interesting to see if any of the local forecasters up their snowfall amounts at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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