2Slick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well, that escalated quickly. Band falling apart. Total of 0.0". Forecast was for 5-7 -_-. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well, that escalated quickly. Band falling apart. Total of 0.0". Forecast was for 5-7 -_-. yeah its looking weak...its directed right at my location so its still snowing, but lightly. I figured that when we got almost 5" by accident last night, that we would underperform tonight when they did forecast 4-7"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Joe Bastardi insisting on Twitter that GFS storm track for Wed/Thurs storm will come west 100-150 miles from where 00Z run shows...currently, per 00Z GFS, KBGM would get fringed. If he's right, a lot of us would get whacked pretty good. Here is the JMA (I know...) qpf output he tweeted...says its in line w/ EC and its ensembles...which I can't verify. GFS correcting west is pretty typical a lot of the time, although sometimes it's eastward bias tends to be the right idea, as I think it was this past weekend w/ the non-storm. Although this time, it appears to be moving towards the EC idea. edit: JB also just tweeted the UKMet output, below... ? UKMET is the worse model in the history of forecasting weather. Also, never trust anything JB says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ? UKMET is the worse model in the history of forecasting weather. Also, never trust anything JB says. Just throwing it out there for discussion...JB is a well known hype machine, I've been laughing at it for 20+ years. Hell, maybe 30. I'm sure he's wishcasting a bit here. Ukie is on far western side of any operational model track envelope. If I'm relying on the Ukie and JMA, its probably time to also buy Powerball tix...Personally, I don't see GFS being 150 miles too far east. 50-75...yeah that wouldn't be outrageous. The trend this winter has been for faster & less amped systems given a lack of blocking (+NAO). Even if 12Z Euro is right, CNY gets fringed. System is just getting onshore out west now so over the next cpl model runs we should see some further consolidation of solutions. IMO ALB is probably ok for a moderate event and BGM gets some scraps. The rest of us try to suck some more white crystals out of the nearest lake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just throwing it out there for discussion...JB is a well known hype machine, I've been laughing at it for 20+ years. Hell, maybe 30. I'm sure he's wishcasting a bit here. Ukie is on far western side of any operational model track envelope. If I'm relying on the Ukie and JMA, its probably time to also buy Powerball tix...Personally, I don't see GFS being 150 miles too far east. 50-75...yeah that wouldn't be outrageous. The trend this winter has been for faster & less amped systems given a lack of blocking (+NAO). Even if 12Z Euro is right, CNY gets fringed. System is just getting onshore out west now so over the next cpl model runs we should see some further consolidation of solutions. IMO ALB is probably ok for a moderate event and BGM gets some scraps. The rest of us try to suck some more white crystals out of the nearest lake... I hear ya haha. Looks like a few possibilities later this week into next. But to be honest I'm nearly ready for some warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I hear ya haha. Looks like a few possibilities later this week into next. But to be honest I'm nearly ready for some warmth. yeah, i won't be moaning whenever we get a nice spring warmup this year. Looks like we may get a few days of mild down the road, if GFS is to be believed. That won't be the backbreaker of winter though by any means. Probably just set up a late winter reload of hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's been so long since any LES related stuff even teased us with flurries in this western CD/eastern MV area that I almost forgot it still exists. LOL Strange for it to stay so far away ..,either none is gaining much inland penetration or the flow has been west and southwest. But anyway we got 11" in last weeks event so no worries. 65" for the season. I see the 0Z ECM puts a nice deformation right over ENY. yeah its looking weak...its directed right at my location so its still snowing, but lightly. I figured that when we got almost 5" by accident last night, that we would underperform tonight when they did forecast 4-7"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We got hammered here over night, easily 2' of fresh powder. Local weather said 4-8" overnight ooppps wrong lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We got hammered here over night, easily 2' of fresh powder. Local weather said 4-8" overnight ooppps wrong lol.2 feet overnight? Holy hell. Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We got hammered here over night, easily 2' of fresh powder. Local weather said 4-8" overnight ooppps wrong lol. 2', wow. I haven't measured or snowblowed yet but we are nowhere close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm about half hour northwest of Syracuse. 10 miles south of lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Moving north, I hardly get any rotting lake effect snow showers anymore. The extra bit of latitude helps at other times though. ENY is riding its hopes on the Euro, but a few more subtle shifts east, and it's yet another southern and eastern New England special. That said, this will be a huge deal for those down south and in parts of the MA. It's been so long since any LES related stuff even teased us with flurries in this western CD/eastern MV area that I almost forgot it still exists. LOL Strange for it to stay so far away ..,either none is gaining much inland penetration or the flow has been west and southwest. But anyway we got 11" in last weeks event so no worries. 65" for the season. I see the 0Z ECM puts a nice deformation right over ENY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Models seemingly coming into better agreement on Thursday's event. Models seem to becoming into some agreement. Looks like two SHARP cut-offs between NO Snow and Snow and within the snow accumulation area a sharp gradient between heavy accumulation and lesser. Here is the TUES 12z UKM. Pressure, wind and QPF clockwise from left to right (42Hr, 48Hr, 60Hr and 72Hr). Think that CCB/Def zone from this system will be the main player of this storm and responsible for the bulk of the snowfall that ENY gets. Ahhhh but exactly where will it set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 2 feet overnight? Holy hell. Where are you located? **********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL********************** LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT NEW YORK ...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY... SE WEST VALLEY 1.5 700 AM 2/11 COCORAHS 1 SSW FRANKLINVILLE 1.0 700 AM 2/11 CO-OP OBSERVER 4 SW ALLEGHENY STATE 1.0 700 AM 2/11 CO-OP OBSERVER ...CAYUGA COUNTY... MARTVILLE 30.0 935 AM 2/11 POST OFFICE FAIR HAVEN 24.0 934 AM 2/11 POST OFFICE CATO 10.0 935 AM 2/11 POST OFFICE ...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY... 4 SSW RIPLEY 2.1 600 AM 2/11 COCORAHS ...ERIE COUNTY... 1 W COLDEN 2.0 730 AM 2/11 CO-OP OBSERVER ...NIAGARA COUNTY... 6 E NIAGARA FALLS 1.1 700 AM 2/11 CO-OP OBSERVER ...OSWEGO COUNTY... HANNIBAL 14.0 851 AM 2/11 SOCIAL MEDIA W FULTON 9.3 400 AM 2/11 COCORAHS SE MINETTO 2.0 800 AM 2/11 COCORAHS OSWEGO 2.0 750 AM 2/11 COAST GUARD 3 NE BENNETTS BRIDGE 1.0 700 AM 2/11 CO-OP OBSERVER ...WAYNE COUNTY... WILLIAMSON 18.0 936 AM 2/11 POST OFFICE 2 N WOLCOTT 16.0 936 AM 2/11 POST OFFICE WOLCOTT 12.5 941 AM 2/11 SOCIAL MEDIA SODUS 7.0 937 AM 2/11 POST OFFICE $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I live a mile away from Martville where that 30" at their post office was reported. I know it says Hannibal got 14" but at my house we got just short of 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 LMAO. For your viewing pleasure... the 18z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is why lake effect is so amazing, yet frustrating at the same time. We ended up with 1-3". Those totals in Cayuga county are amazing. If only it went more inland and reached us like forecasted . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 LOL at RGEM. BGM to SYR - and particularly BGM - are most likely to be fringed by this storm but I am preparing for heavy cirrus. ALB looks to be in reasonable shape, only question is 6" or 12" for them. I could see this system tracking right along the coast or slightly inland though. It's happened many times before, in spite of the sages that insist it can never happen. Just slow down the upstream kicker some more, and/or change the way any phasing happens...not all cyclogenesis occurs out near the gulf stream as many would have us believe. I texted w/ my friend in upstate SC today, he is an upstate NY refugee...told him to prepare for a Mad Max existence post-storm...if the progs for an inch or more of ZR pan out. They could be out of electricity for days and weeks down there. Another day, another day of snow. looks like 2" more during daylight hrs...we are at about 13" for this low level prolonged LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I live a mile away from Martville where that 30" at their post office was reported. I know it says Hannibal got 14" but at my house we got just short of 2'. That poor post office is in such a crappy spot.. It always looked like they barely had room to pile up a ft of snow let alone 2.5' overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looked at some 12Z & 18Z model solutions. West trend continues, to about what the Euro has been progging for days. We'll see if that holds. Coastal area threads are close to a Jonestown style mass suicide at this point. Despite the West track, NWP showing this thing w/ a western precip shield that's about 6 miles from the slp. What a crock that is. It would have to pass over the Carrier Dome for me and George to see qpf. Sigh. I have to make a contest forecast by 10:30 tonight. The only 00Z run that will be fully in will be NAM. Which is now, perversely, channeling the NOGAPS for most east / progressive solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 LOL at RGEM. BGM to SYR - and particularly BGM - are most likely to be fringed by this storm but I am preparing for heavy cirrus. ALB looks to be in reasonable shape, only question is 6" or 12" for them. I could see this system tracking right along the coast or slightly inland though. It's happened many times before, in spite of the sages that insist it can never happen. Just slow down the upstream kicker some more, and/or change the way any phasing happens...not all cyclogenesis occurs out near the gulf stream as many would have us believe. I texted w/ my friend in upstate SC today, he is an upstate NY refugee...told him to prepare for a Mad Max existence post-storm...if the progs for an inch or more of ZR pan out. They could be out of electricity for days and weeks down there. Another day, another day of snow. looks like 2" more during daylight hrs...we are at about 13" for this low level prolonged LES event. It's been quite a while since we've had a coastal hugger or just inland track, so it seems many (including the WPC up until now) have been dismissing the possibility despite the EC's persistence. The southern stream impulse is already impressive on WV imagery so once the phase occurs the UL trough should sharpen and go negative pretty quick. I guess it really depends on when the h5 low closes off and pulls the sfc low northward. If it wasn't for the progressive nature of the flow this would run right up the hudson valley for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's been quite a while since we've had a coastal hugger or just inland track, so it seems many (including the WPC up until now) have been dismissing the possibility despite the EC's persistence. The southern stream impulse is already impressive on WV imagery so once the phase occurs the UL trough should sharpen and go negative pretty quick. I guess it really depends on when the h5 low closes off and pulls the sfc low northward. If it wasn't for the progressive nature of the flow this would run right up the hudson valley for sure. It's been quite a while since we've had a coastal hugger or just inland track, so it seems many (including the WPC up until now) have been dismissing the possibility despite the EC's persistence. The southern stream impulse is already impressive on WV imagery so once the phase occurs the UL trough should sharpen and go negative pretty quick. I guess it really depends on when the h5 low closes off and pulls the sfc low northward. If it wasn't for the progressive nature of the flow this would run right up the hudson valley for sure. Good point about the phasing. If it happens at a low enough latitude and slows forward speed a bit as that happens, the slp will track further west than currently depicted. I'm beginning to think BGM may get into the 6+ range but we'll see. I don't see a good downstream block to significantly slow this up but the wildcard is the so-called kicker coming in from the west and how it's energy interacts w/ the southern stream. Any 00Z trends tonight will be interesting. This thing should have a lot of moisture to work with at least, for whomever gets lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That poor post office is in such a crappy spot.. It always looked like they barely had room to pile up a ft of snow let alone 2.5' overnight... Haha very true there. Barely enough room for a couple cars lol. Now with a big snowfall even less room. Also a bad spot to pull out of cause of cars coming from the west over the hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hmmm thats funny. Snowing pretty hard attm. This was supposed to have abated by now. Maybe another accidental 5" tonight? KTYX overshooting these low tops. You can just about make it out coming in off of Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good point about the phasing. If it happens at a low enough latitude and slows forward speed a bit as that happens, the slp will track further west than currently depicted. I'm beginning to think BGM may get into the 6+ range but we'll see. I don't see a good downstream block to significantly slow this up but the wildcard is the so-called kicker coming in from the west and how it's energy interacts w/ the southern stream. Any 00Z trends tonight will be interesting. This thing should have a lot of moisture to work with at least, for whomever gets lucky. Yeah I wouldn't be surprised to see another slight shift westward at 00z if the phasing is there. Also don't fully buy the weak precipitation shield to the north and west of the cyclone, especially with the amount of moisture and forcing. The progged mid-level frontogenesis in the trowal region would favor laterally quasi-stationary snow bands with a pivoting band as the CCB rolls through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I just hope we get one more big synoptic storm here this winter. Then I will be set . Last weeks was so much fun. Oh and what is the best radar for LES? I always use Live Doppler 9 I like that one the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That kicker is ruining everything with this storm. It suppresses the precip shield to the north and west and also shunts the storm northeast instead of due north once it reaches the Jersey coast. Without it this thing would probably go up the Hudson Valley and destroy CNY. I wish I knew why inland runners have gone extinct since Valentines Day 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hey hey, some of us here Upstate don't want this up the HV But I get your point. The VDay storm was actually more of a coastal hugger, passing south of Long Island, and up the New England coast. But the heavier mosture was thrown way back to the NW of that one. That's still one of the best storms I've experienced here in ENY and would gladly take another one. I wouldn't be surprised if the 00Z's push it even further west, getting more parts of CNY into the decent snows too. That kicker is ruining everything with this storm. It suppresses the precip shield to the north and west and also shunts the storm northeast instead of due north once it reaches the Jersey coast. Without it this thing would probably go up the Hudson Valley and destroy CNY. I wish I knew why inland runners have gone extinct since Valentines Day 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Inland runners are tough, I think in part because typically the best baroclinic zone is usually just offshore. Normally, it takes a Miller A type system to barrel up the coast w/ upper trough in the correct position, and/or going negative tilt far enough west, to keep it tucked in close ashore. VD II was fairly epic near SYR...IIRC we had about 12-14 synoptic (schools were open unbelievably, sent home early though) but the real fun was the LES that followed, which doubled the totals over the next day or so. So we ended up with about two feet of snow over about 3 days. Unfortunately my CoCoRaHS data doesn't go back quite that far and I think my old reporting data to NWS is probably lost to antiquity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I just hope we get one more big synoptic storm here this winter. Then I will be set . Last weeks was so much fun. Oh and what is the best radar for LES? I always use Live Doppler 9 I like that one the best. WSYR 9 radar is usually the best although their site is so loaded up w/ junk that its annoying and slows performance. And lately, it seems they have reduced their radar loop capability to where it's dogsh*t most of the time. It used to be great. Maybe its just my iMac that doesn't play well w/ their site but my P.O.S. PC at work has similar issues on their site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.