ayuud11 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ALL EYES ARE ON THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM TO OUR SOUTH THISAFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TO COVER FOR THE HEAVY SNOW ON ITS WAY. THE NATIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION ALONG WITH SURFACE OBS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A WELL DEFINED STORM STRUCTURE. A WIDE SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS FALLING IN THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM CENTER FROM KANSAS EAST TO OHIO AND A BAND OF RAIN TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE STORM WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING. WHILE WARM ADVECTIVE SNOW WILL STREAM OVERHEAD BY EARLY THIS EVENING A THICK LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW THIS TO EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. THROUGH TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL TRACK FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE STORM CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHERE WE CAN EXPECT TO BEGIN TO SEE SNOW REACHING THE GROUND FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER 7-10PM THEN ARRIVING ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN NEW YORK BY 11PM-2AM. BEST TIMING FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BE 2AM-5AM. BUFKIT VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW INITIALLY THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH REGION WILL BE CENTERED AROUND 15KT WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LIFT AND MOISTURE RESIDING BELOW THIS LEVEL. SNOW RATIOS FROM THE COBB METHOD BASED ON THESE PROFILES SKEW SNOW CRYSTAL TYPE TO A DENSER/WETTER AND RIMED NATURE SO HAVE AVERAGED A 9:1 RATIO FOR SNOW TOTALS OVERNIGHT. THIS YIELDS ONLY ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER AND WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID 20S. ON WEDNESDAY THE STORM CENTER WILL TRANSFER FROM OHIO EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST UNDER A MILLER TYPE-B SCENARIO. THE TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK SO EXPECT THAT WE REMAIN IN THE COLD AIR WITH ALL SNOW AND NO MIXED P-TYPE EXPECTED. ONCE THE STORM CENTER BEGINS SHIFTING EAST OF OUR REGION WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SNOW INTENSITY AND SNOW RATIOS INCREASE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION. MESOSCALE MODELS EVEN SUGGEST SOME MESOSCALE BANDING POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF A BUF-ROC-SYR LINE WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MEETS A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED JET ALONG A 925MB THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF AND LIFT WILL BE FOUND. HAVE FACTORED IN THESE MESOSCALE MODELS WHEN DERIVING THE FORECAST QPF. THE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ADD A LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMPONENT ESPECIALLY UPSLOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY. THE COLD ADVECTION ALSO LOWERS THE SNOW GROWTH REGION DOWN BELOW 10KFT BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED SNOW RATIOS TO 12:1 THROUGH THE MORNING THEN 15:1 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING 5 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER IN THE LOW TO MID 20S THROUGH THE MORNING THEN FALL TOWARD THE TEENS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON UNDER THEN COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- STEADY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITHTHIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WITH THE ASSOCIATED 500 MB TROF AXIS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK. ONCE THIS TROF AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST...SNOW WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY WITH DRIER AIR AND ONLY MARGINAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE THERE WILL JUST BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SKIES CLEAR. IN GENERAL...AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE COLDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not to be a Debbie, but interested to see if my totally unscientific "50% rule" works with this event. For these types of synoptic systems approaching from the southwest, I take the snowfall forecast from the day before and cut it in half. So my guess for BUF on this storm would be in the 4-6" range. Be gentle...I'm not saying models show this and I understand why the forecast is what it is at this point. I'm just wary of the dry slot, poor snow growth, early transfer, etc. that seem to accompany these storms and cut back on snow totals in WNY. Agree. Miller B's are tough to get excited about. Way too many things can, and usually do, go wrong. LIkely not for everybody in ENY/CNY/WNY at the same time but almost assuredly for some. Who knows where the fickle finger of fate will point this time? (Disclaimer: this system does look pretty decent though, providing deformation snows end up where currently shown. Even a "bust" looks likely to be able to scrape into WSW level snowfall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Here she comes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Gonna be a late night for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Hey Nick, is this the same feature that is showing up across the Niagara frontier tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Any chance we can get some observations when the snow makes it to the ground? Virga. John from Phoenix, N.Y. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well...FWIW 00Z NAM is running...seems to have axis of heaviest qpf down towards BGM to ALB and into central New England...which was the original idea a day or so ago until the wobbles north today. QPF seems reasonable, don't have text products yet but eyeballing....BGM to ALB 1-1.25 and BUF/SYR/ROC somewhere between 0.75-1.00. No big change...it will all depend on where banding sets up. Cortland/Ithica would seem to be in a great spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well...FWIW 00Z NAM is running...seems to have axis of heaviest qpf down towards BGM to ALB and into central New England...which was the original idea a day or so ago until the wobbles north today. QPF seems reasonable, don't have text products yet but eyeballing....BGM to ALB 1-1.25 and BUF/SYR/ROC somewhere between 0.75-1.00. No big change...it will all depend on where banding sets up. Cortland/Ithica would seem to be in a great spot for this one. These coastal transfers are notoriously difficult to prog max. qpf stripe....really can shift 50-75 miles either direction....Ball parking right now on about 8" for our area Bri....10" for SYR proper...12-14" for Cortland to BGM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 BTW, the 00z NAM basically took 40% off it's 12z run totals for much of CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 These coastal transfers are notoriously difficult to prog max. qpf stripe....really can shift 50-75 miles either direction....Ball parking right now on about 8" for our area Bri....10" for SYR proper...12-14" for Cortland to BGM.... Agree w/ that George. BGM's 8-10" for us looks about right. Even if we end up w/ 0.5-0.6" liquid we should squeak out Warning snow...which has been rare this winter. A lot of light to moderate accums thusfar. Sun/Mon starting to look like a swing and a miss up here also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It sure will look pretty! Still waiting for the 2-3 foot bomb. These tracks have underperformed more that over. Get caught up in the qpf. Always need the "what can go wrong" factor. Still could have some banding somewhere in CNY with decent rates(above 1"). Estimating 7 to 9 for Phoenix which fits most forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Agree w/ that George. BGM's 8-10" for us looks about right. Even if we end up w/ 0.5-0.6" liquid we should squeak out Warning snow...which has been rare this winter. A lot of light to moderate accums thusfar. Sun/Mon starting to look like a swing and a miss up here also. I bet the operational models will come back some for the late weekend storm....at least to keep us "interested".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It sure will look pretty! Still waiting for the 2-3 foot bomb. These tracks have underperformed more that over. Get caught up in the qpf. Always need the "what can go wrong" factor. Still could have some banding somewhere in CNY with decent rates(above 1"). Estimating 7 to 9 for Phoenix which fits most forecasts. The real question is will Phoenix schools close? Kids are hopeful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I bet the operational models will come back some for the late weekend storm....at least to keep us "interested".. Yup...its not called the GooFuS for nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The real question is will Phoenix schools close? Kids are hopeful... So are mine but I pumped them up! Bad dad if not but I still expect wide spread closings. We will see. They have had enough actually. Back to the grindstone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This was my forecast contest entry: CAR: 0.5 BGR: 6.3 PWM: 9.5 CON: 12.5 BTV: 9.5 BOS: 5.5 HYA: 1.0 ORH: 7.5 PVD: 4.0 BDR: 2.5 BDL: 5.5 ALB: 13.5 BGM: 11 ISP: 1.5 JFK: 2.0 ABE: 3 MDT: 1.5 PHL: 0.5 ACY: 0.05 EWR: 3.0 BWI: 0.05 IAD: 0 DCA: 0 SBY: 0 RIC: 0 ORF: 0 RDU: 0 Not in contest, but if it were: BUF: 7.5 SYR: 8.5 ROC: 8.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Hey Nick, is this the same feature that is showing up across the Niagara frontier tomorrow? yeah it's a weak deformation zone hanging back behind the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The models have been very frustrating all day for areas thruway north ie: all the big cities. They went north and then south and now they are split! Most showing the heavy stuff south of a 5 and 20 line. One hi res model (her i think) only gives Monroe county 3-4" with arr giving us 12". God damn glad I'm not a meteorologist in buf-syr tonite. One comforting thought is this, most show somewhere in wny getting 12+. My experience has been that u just can't tell where the highest total bands set up or what lake enhancement does. Miller b's are tricky. If this was a cutter I'd feel very comfortable adding several inches to projections south of the lake. But I've seen miller b's transfer quick and steal moisture. Basically, my gut says 6-8 for the thruway corridor. Btw: please keep me company with posts, I'm in this for the long haul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 The models have been very frustrating all day for areas thruway north ie: all the big cities. They went north and then south and now they are split! Most showing the heavy stuff south of a 5 and 20 line. One hi res model (her i think) only gives Monroe county 3-4" with arr giving us 12". God damn glad I'm not a meteorologist in buf-syr tonite. One comforting thought is this, most show somewhere in wny getting 12+. My experience has been that u just can't tell where the highest total bands set up or what lake enhancement does. Miller b's are tricky. If this was a cutter I'd feel very comfortable adding several inches to projections south of the lake. But I've seen miller b's transfer quick and steal moisture. Basically, my gut says 6-8 for the thruway corridor. Btw: please keep me company with posts, I'm in this for the long haul. I'll try but going to sleep a little earlier tonight. Light snow started here around 10:30. Hopefully it doesn't stop until 6 pm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 yeah it's a weak deformation zone hanging back behind the storm. Pretty cool. That band was dropping 1-2 inches per hour across Kansas earlier. They had some insane totals for that region with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 00Z GFS not all that impressive. Given NAM bias towards too much qpf, I think 6-8" looking good for BUF/ROC/SYR. ALB and BGM maybe get 8-12, depending on where any heavier bands set up, which I think will be somewhere in the vicinity of Rt 17 / I-86 to the I-90 or I-88 corridors. At least we won't be dealing with p-type issues as they will along the coast. I'd be surprised if I-95 south of Boston sees more than 3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 00Z GFS not all that impressive. Given NAM bias towards too much qpf, I think 6-8" looking good for BUF/ROC/SYR. ALB and BGM maybe get 8-12, depending on where any heavier bands set up, which I think will be somewhere in the vicinity of Rt 17 / I-86 to the I-90 or I-88 corridors. At least we won't be dealing with p-type issues as they will along the coast. I'd be surprised if I-95 south of Boston sees more than 3-4". It's pretty much the same as earlier runs, from what I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 00Z GFS not all that impressive. Given NAM bias towards too much qpf, I think 6-8" looking good for BUF/ROC/SYR. ALB and BGM maybe get 8-12, depending on where any heavier bands set up, which I think will be somewhere in the vicinity of Rt 17 / I-86 to the I-90 or I-88 corridors. At least we won't be dealing with p-type issues as they will along the coast. I'd be surprised if I-95 south of Boston sees more than 3-4". The GFS has been the driest model of the suite the whole time. What about the 12z euro from today, though? Areas south of Boston will do fine...much of SNE aside from the immediate south coast will get 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Pressure falls look to be further north and west as compared to models. Maybe a good sign for norther wny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The latest RAP is quite impressive for the region. 1 foot + in the southern tier and lower finger lakes and 8-12 for everyone else with the exception of the Niagara frontier, which gets 6-8. The HRRR has 8-12 for the southern tier and finger lakes through noon tomorrow and 4-8 for the rest of the area with plenty left to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The GFS has been the driest model of the suite the whole time. What about the 12z euro from today, though? Areas south of Boston will do fine...much of SNE aside from the immediate south coast will get 6"+.Interior SNE probably does ok (BDL to ORH to CON to PWM)...likely similar amounts as up here, could get lucky with any banding. I-95 corridor mixes after 2-4". Hardest call is how far north the warm layer intrudes. Climo down there often sees it blasting up the Ct river valley to as far as BDL. Boston another iffy spot...Logan is right on the water and often records lower than most of the metro area. Euro was wetter...seems like GFS is channeling the old NGM model for this system, as far as qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This is the 3rd time during a winter storm this season that I recall the Buffalo radar going down. What the hey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I have 20Dbz echoes over me just N of SYR...virga storm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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