vortmax Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That NAM map is nice, but overdone. I wish KBUF would update their accumulation map to show the lake enhancement along the south shore. For the late December storm (which included lake enhancement), all they did was update the map after it was happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM HI-RES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The latest ARW is crazy. 30 mm(1.2" QPF) of snow from Jamestown to Ithaca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The latest ARW is crazy. 30 mm(1.2" QPF) of snow from Jamestown to Ithaca. Woww just checked the 9z one and it had 12-14" for BUF/ROC/SYR and 16-20" for ITH!! 12Z NAM IS even crazier,it has us getting 15" of snow!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looking good: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Woww just checked the 9z one and it had 12-14" for BUF/ROC/SYR and 16-20" for ITH!! 12Z NAM IS even crazier,it has us getting 15" of snow!!!!!!!!!! I told you this would be WSW criteria storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just about every model coming in BIG for entire W/NY and C/ NY , hi res picking up on banding and lake enhancement. Axis for hvyst snow looks to be along and south of thruway but lake enhancement will help with totals north of that region. Someone could get 18" out of this beauty..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like the euro bumped up to 0.85-0.90 qpf for BUF or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just about every model coming in BIG for entire W/NY and C/ NY , hi res picking up on banding and lake enhancement. Axis for hvyst snow looks to be along and south of thruway but lake enhancement will help with totals north of that region. Someone could get 18" out of this beauty..... I told you this would be WSW criteria storm. That dreaded last minute NW shift may help us after all huh? hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like the euro bumped up to 0.85-0.90 qpf for BUF or so. SREF plumes coming together for consensus 10 inch totals at KBUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like the euro bumped up to 0.85-0.90 qpf for BUF or so. Nice! you still thinking 6-10"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 NYZ001-002-010-011-050215- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0004.140205T0300Z-140206T0300Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO... BATAVIA 115 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. * TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT...4 TO 7 INCHES WEDNESDAY...AND AROUND AN INCH WEDNESDAY EVENING...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 7 TO 13 INCHES. HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES AND WORST TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Snow growth actually doesn't look awful since we're pretty far north of the sleet line...may only flirt with -8c or so aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Snow growth actually doesn't look awful since we're pretty far north of the sleet line...may only flirt with -8c or so aloft. Are you concerned with a dry slot, it seems it keeps creeping further and further north. I think places along the state line actually have a few hour break between the WAA snows and the deform snows. Those regions who stay in the snow the entire duration of this storm will be the big winners in terms of total accs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Widespread 6-12" snowfall for CNY. The biggest widespread (non lake effect snow) we've seen since early January There could be some localized bands of heavier snow setting up Wednesday morning, but it's impossible to say where they will set up. New data is coming in as I write this, and I'll be able to go through that after the Noon show. So far, that info is a bit wetter, meaning slightly more snow for us. That guidance has been the wettest throughout the event. The guidance that has been a little less wet and snowy for us will be coming in soon, so I'll see if that's trending wetter. The high resolution model that we run in the office is producing 9" of snow for Syracuse by Wednesday evening. So the only change to the forecast is to bump things up a bit to the 6-12" range for the storm. From LocalSYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Are you concerned with a dry slot, it seems it keeps creeping further and further north. I think places along the state line actually have a few hour break between the WAA snows and the deform snows. Those regions who stay in the snow the entire duration of this storm will be the big winners in terms of total accs. It's tough to say...areas near the state line also get heavier snow on the front end than we do. It may end up being a wash...they get a break...we don't..but they got more on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's tough to say...areas near the state line also get heavier snow on the front end than we do. It may end up being a wash...they get a break...we don't..but they got more on the front end. Yeah makes sense. We also have to factor in lake enhancement as well. The last synoptic storm dropped 22 inches in Greece which is just a 40 minute drive northeast of KBUF. Latest snowfall map from WIVB: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 and that's why you never trust the NAM lol. Big cut back to the northwest from 12z to 18z. Still final forecast: 8-12" for BUF metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 and that's why you never trust the NAM lol. Big cut back to the northwest from 12z to 18z. Still final forecast: 8-12" for BUF metro Yeah that was my call as well with a few 12-16 inch spots if lake enhancement is realized along the south shore of lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah that was my call as well with a few 12-16 inch spots if lake enhancement is realized along the south shore of lake Ontario. yeah that's a possibility...probably closer to ROC on that as opposed to Niagara or Orleans county since their synoptic precip rates will be the lowest of the whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 yeah that's a possibility...probably closer to ROC on that as opposed to Niagara or Orleans county since their synoptic precip rates will be the lowest of the whole area. SREF plumes now at a foot at KBUF. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Jackpot on the latest NAM is literally right over my head. Over a foot for everyone south of the Thruway, except those immediately along lake Erie. Edit: New SREFs have Ithaca at 13.5" with only 2 members below 10" and 1 below 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not to be a Debbie, but interested to see if my totally unscientific "50% rule" works with this event. For these types of synoptic systems approaching from the southwest, I take the snowfall forecast from the day before and cut it in half. So my guess for BUF on this storm would be in the 4-6" range. Be gentle...I'm not saying models show this and I understand why the forecast is what it is at this point. I'm just wary of the dry slot, poor snow growth, early transfer, etc. that seem to accompany these storms and cut back on snow totals in WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the minister Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm 20 miles below you, Gravity Wave, in Spencer, NY. We really and truly might be in the bulls-eye! Looking for at least a foot for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm 20 miles below you, Gravity Wave, in Spencer, NY. We really and truly might be in the bulls-eye! Looking for at least a foot for sure. Hopefully this will be the storm that erases all the painful memories of dry slots, unexpected warm tongues, horrendous snow growth and disintegrating precip shields that usually characterize synoptic storms up here. The short range models are all on our side, so my expectations are peaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hopefully this will be the storm that erases all the painful memories of dry slots, unexpected warm tongues, horrendous snow growth and disintegrating precip shields that usually characterize synoptic storms up here. The short range models are all on our side, so my expectations are peaking. Sometimes those are the nicest memories... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sometimes those are the nicest memories... The 850 line is getting a little close for comfort. I expect I'll stay all snow but it wouldn't surprise me if Binghamton gets a few pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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