BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 btw BUF just upgraded the winter storm watches, Northern Erie and Niagara are left out though.. i'm thinking 4-6" for BUF. ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENINGTHROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING THE BUFFALO METRO AREA.* TIMING...LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.* HAZARDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 4 TO 8 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 btw BUF just upgraded the winter storm watches, Northern Erie and Niagara are left out though.. i'm thinking 4-6" for BUF. These systems always come 50 miles north than expected. Subtle NW trends are hard to predict. I can't even count how many times mixing crept up all the way to metro Buffalo when the mixing line was supposed to be at the state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm thinking 2-4" for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 If BGM decides once again that a 6-12 inch storm warrants a WWA, I'm going to be . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 70% chance of 12+ at Bing. I have family that lives up on the hills in Bing, going to see how much they get with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 SREF plumes have a mean 7.5 inches at KBUF. I'll say 4 inches Lake Ontario shoreline near Niagara falls, 6 inches KBuf, 7-8 in my area and 8-10 along PA border. Might have some lake enhancement around Rochester to bring them to the 8-10 inch totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Central New York is going to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 This is a tough forecast, look at the model disparity within the HPC clusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 18z NAM has a Finger Lakes jackpot, and the 18z GFS edged north but remained consistent with its 8-12 across southern tier and 6-9 across the rest of the region. Binghamton's new watch wording from 5:10 is quite strong, calling for 6-12 and 7" plus, so a warning is a near certainty at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Channel 4 call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 00Z NAM puts out 0.70" at SYR, 0.68" at BUF, 0.72" at ROC, 1.00" at BGM and 0.94" at ALB - liquid equivalents. Take ~25% off those values and dial in a 12:1 ratio and it ends up about 10:1 off of the NAM output, roughly. Def WSW material for NY Southern Tier up I-88. BUF/ROC/SYR probably warranted as low end Warnings...6-9" generally, excluding any lake enhancement, which probably bumps ROC closer to what BGM and ALB will get (10-12"). Any banding could enhance/rob totals, not sure of that signature for this event up here, maybe best chance for that along so. tier towards ALB. That's my guesstimate of this. This weekend too far away to even speculate on outcomes. We've all seen the eye candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 GGEM brings the mixing line all the way to the PA border. Definitely a 100 mile or so northward adjustment with this run. GFS is also farther north but a tad weaker, but still brings 6-8 across most of WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 00Z GFS losing its lunch w/ this Sunday/Monday's storm. By Wednesday it'll be battering Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 00Z GFS losing its lunch w/ this Sunday/Monday's storm. By Wednesday it'll be battering Bermuda. Man i would take that 6z run of today and be done with the winter, it showed 30"+ for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Man i would take that 6z run of today and be done with the winter, it showed 30"+ for the region. This is probably the usual GooFuS head fake we get about this time on decent east coast systems. Sometimes these shifts are right but usually not. We'll see what Euro and Canadian trend towards. In summary, I suspect: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The UKMET, the southern outlier for Wednesday's storm, just jumped 50-100 miles north on its 0z run. The ARW is in range and looks to be on the northern, wetter side of guidance, Confidence in a 6"+ snowfall for everyone south of a Syracuse-Geneva-Jamestown line near 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 That dry slot. I think having a bit of latitude is going to be beneficial with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro looked very good for the region as well. Someone in the NYC forum said over 12" for Ithaca. Hard to see much changing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Man i would take that 6z run of today and be done with the winter, it showed 30"+ for the region. Big snow on tap bro! I was worried early on Monday, past history should of informed me to just: relax. Always a northwest jog on the models in the least 42 hrs. Someday the models will catch on and end it. But not for this storm. Thruway gets a foot! Bank on it. Buf maybe a touch less... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That dry slot. I think having a bit of latitude is going to be beneficial with this storm. I like the comma shape to this. Add lake enhancement and I do not understand how nws doesn't have warnings for Orleans or niagara. They are guaranteed at this point. Pride prob playing a part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro looked very good for the region as well. Someone in the NYC forum said over 12" for Ithaca. Hard to see much changing now. Definately juiced up compared to 12z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Big snow on tap bro! I was worried early on Monday, past history should of informed me to just: relax. Always a northwest jog on the models in the least 42 hrs. Someday the models will catch on and end it. But not for this storm. Thruway gets a foot! Bank on it. Buf maybe a touch less... Yes i like the trends, not really sure why BUF is not upgrading that watch but w/e lol. This is probably the usual GooFuS head fake we get about this time on decent east coast systems. Sometimes these shifts are right but usually not. We'll see what Euro and Canadian trend towards. In summary, I suspect: 0z euro is OTS haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm bullish on this storm. Lake enhancement will likely aid tots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 wow 6z nam coming in hot, 8-12"+ across WNY/CNY!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm bullish on this storm. Lake enhancement will likely aid tots THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE AWIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME COMPLICATIONS FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE TAIL END SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES AS A MILLER TYPE-B SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE YIELDING TO A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL FRONT AND TRIGGERS CYCLOGENESIS. IN THE MID LEVELS A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...SUPPORTED BY A BELT OF ENHANCED 900-700MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 160+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER QUEBEC WILL ALSO AID IN DEEP LAYER ASCENT. FROM MID MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WARM ADVECTION WILL SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AT THIS POINT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TRANSITION TO DPVA WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST AN EAST/WEST ORIENTED BAND OF STRETCHING DEFORMATION IN THE 850MB-700MB LAYER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...JUST NORTH OF THE 850MB LOW TRACK. THIS AXIS OF DEFORMATION MAY SUPPORT SOME MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO SNOWFALL...AND THEY TYPICALLY ALSO SUPPORT A LITTLE BETTER SNOW TO WATER RATIOS THAN WARM ADVECTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE WITH IT GIVEN ITS TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW IT TO CAPTURE A PLUME OF HIGHER PWAT OVER THE GULF STATES. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY DURING THE WARM ADVECTION PORTION OF THE STORM REACHES ABOUT 3.5G/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ABOUT 2.5G/KG UP TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...MORE THAN AMPLE MOISTURE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. ONE FINAL CONSIDERATION WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED FROM THE NORTH. THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COLD...BUT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME HELP FROM THE LAKE AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 5K FEET. LATEST NAM 925MB OMEGA ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A DECENT PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO ROCHESTER AND WAYNE COUNTY FROM ABOUT 21Z WED THROUGH 03Z THU. THIS TAIL END LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFTEN PRODUCES FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS WITH HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. WE LOOKED BACK AT ANALOGS TO THIS EVENT USING THE SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY CIPS SITE. THE AVERAGE OF ALL THE TOP ANALOGS YIELDS HIGH END ADVISORY TO LOW END WARNING AMOUNTS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE BEST FIT OF ALL THE ANALOGS WAS AN EVENT FROM EARLY JANUARY 1996. THIS EVENT WAS NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES...ALTHOUGH IT WAS ABOUT 10F COLDER AT THE SURFACE. THIS ANALOG EVENT PRODUCED WARNING CRITERIA SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME NOTABLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS. PUTTING ALL OF THE ABOVE TOGETHER...WE EXPECT STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS TO REACH THE 6-9 INCH RANGE FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW 10-11 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND BRISTOL HILLS. THE SYNOPTIC STORM BY ITSELF WOULD PROBABLY NOT PRODUCE WARNING AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING BUFFALO...BUT WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM FLUFFY LAKE ENHANCEMENT AT THE END IT SHOULD GET CLOSE. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE ONLY A FEW INCHES ARE EXPECTED. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE WILL GO WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT JEFFERSON COUNTY WHERE AN ADVISORY SHOULD SUFFICE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FOR MOST AREAS THIS IS A LOW END WARNING. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL END LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO MORE PURE...LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ON NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MINOR AFTER MID TO LATE EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Binghamton just hoisted WSW for 10-14" for its southern tier and finger lakes counties. 1-2 inch per hour rates between 3 and 11 AM... might have to go to bed early tomorrow so I can wake up for the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 wow 6z nam coming in hot, 8-12"+ across WNY/CNY!! 12z even hotter. 1.25-1.50" of QPF bullseyed right over WNY. Verbatim 12-18" with ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Updated NWS snowfall accumulation map for this storm is looking better and better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Updated NWS snowfall accumulation map for this storm is looking better and better About dang time you showed up. Only took a weenie run from the NAM to get Devin out of hiding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.