BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The cold is upon us, hopefully we can get some decent snow chances as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES GRIPPING THE REGION WILL MODERATESLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR EAST AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE THOUSAND ISLANDS. RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE TEENS ON FRIDAY. OUR ATTENTION FOR THE WEEKEND TURNS TO THE STRONGLY AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE SHARPLY TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL JET STREAK THAT WILL COME DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW DROPS OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC TO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING. A LOOK AT THE 1.5 PVU SURFACES OF BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IS UNNERVING AS HEIGHTS DROP TO ANYWHERE FROM 650MB TO 725MB IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH A 980ISH MB SURFACE LOW REACHING MAXIMUM INTENSITY OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY SATURDAY. WHILE THERE ARE TIMING/POSITION DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING THE FINER DETAILS...THIS SCENARIO BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS IT COULD BRING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM/WIND EVENT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...AT LEAST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WINTER WILL BE HERE TO STAY FOR QUITE SOME TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 By saying "above avg" i meant a 100"+ winter, last one we had was back in 2010. Buffalos average is near 100 inches per year. So us being 15 inches above normal for the date sets us up for 100+ year easily. Lake Erie is usually 80%+ frozen by the end January so its a little ahead of schedule. After todays snowfall gets added to KBUF, we only need around 30 more inches for the entire season. Its certainly doable since we have 3 more months of potential snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nice sig, is that you in the picture? Did you see Richard Sherman last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nice sig, is that you in the picture? Did you see Richard Sherman last night. yes and LOL @ Sherman,i loved the part where Erin told him "“who was talking about you”? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elatO5E8pGs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 yes and LOL @ Sherman,i loved the part where Erin told him "“who was talking about you”? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elatO5E8pGs Haha! A rare LES event for metro Chicago! ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHTTONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY...* TIMING...A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE COUNTY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO PORTER COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED TOTALS OVER A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE.* OTHER IMPACTS...WITHIN THE NARROW INTENSE HEAVY SNOW BAND SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Haha! A rare LES event for metro Chicago! ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHTTONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY...* TIMING...A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE COUNTY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO PORTER COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED TOTALS OVER A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE.* OTHER IMPACTS...WITHIN THE NARROW INTENSE HEAVY SNOW BAND SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO. If i remember correctly, don't they need that rare NE'rly winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 If i remember correctly, don't they need that rare NE'rly winds? Yeah, its an extremely rare occurrence. That entire fetch of lake Michigan gets into play. Going to be some INSANE rates within that band and its nearly twice as long as Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katodog Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 keep an eye on Saturday for an unexpected blizzard with 50- 60 mph winds for us thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Storm for sat looks nasty. Lots of dynamics and moisture. Winds and.snow already on.ground.could spell trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Calling all Mets out there. Is this article/statement actually true? The maximum total was 42” at Depew (7 miles east of Buffalo) over a 24-hour period ending at 8 a.m. on December 3. West Seneca (about 7 miles southeast of downtown Buffalo) totaled 30” with 7” of this falling in just one 30 minute period between 3:30 p.m.-4:00 p.m. on December 2nd according to local storm spotters. If true, this would be one of the, if not the, most intense point snowfall on record anywhere in the world. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/lakeeffect-snowstorms-recent-and-historical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Just a general question for upstaters. Why is Watertown often so bitterly cold, compared to places around it? Often it is even colder than Ottawa, a two hour drive north. As I type it is already fifteen below in the city. Does the Watertown/Fort Drum/ Gouverneur area get a lot of radiational cooling due to its topography? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Just a general question for upstaters. Why is Watertown often so bitterly cold, compared to places around it? Often it is even colder than Ottawa, a two hour drive north. As I type it is already fifteen below in the city. Does the Watertown/Fort Drum/ Gouverneur area get a lot of radiational cooling due to its topography? Pretty sure the cold readings we see in and around KART are caused by local topography being somewhat bowl-shaped, allowing cold air to drain into the area from the north, as well as the ADKs to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Pretty sure the cold readings we see in and around KART are caused by local topography being somewhat bowl-shaped, allowing cold air to drain into the area from the north, as well as the ADKs to the east. Watertown now down to an incredible 20 below while Ottawa, to its north is at 6 below! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Watertown now down to an incredible 20 below while Ottawa, to its north is at 6 below! It's actually down to -15F @ the city, the kart airport is about 6 miles west from the city and it's away from any urban heating.. btw coldest reading in NY state goes to Old Forge which was -52F set back in Feb 18th 1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Call me crazy but i would trade in 3 winters just to relive the infamous winter of '76-77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 EPIC LOOP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yeah, its an extremely rare occurrence. That entire fetch of lake Michigan gets into play. Going to be some INSANE rates within that band and its nearly twice as long as Lake Erie. Defiitely very rare for it to be pure lake effect. They get enhancement on that flow a few times a year, but nothing like this. In fact, they had an equal or greater event just a few weeks ago. (I may have saved some screenshots... I'll check.) It's been an incredible year so far for the Northeast and Great Lakes. Nice radar loop btw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Pretty sure the cold readings we see in and around KART are caused by local topography being somewhat bowl-shaped, allowing cold air to drain into the area from the north, as well as the ADKs to the east. Another very important factor to remember is that Watertown often doesnt feel the effects of any of the great lakes under certain wind regimes. Therefore, watertown pretty much has a clear line of sight to the North Pole, no upstream modification of the airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Did anyone see the visibile satellite from this afternoon? The amount of ice cover on the great lakes is staggering. Quicks estimates put Superior at nearly 50 percent iced over, Huron around 40 percent iced up, and Erie around 85-90 percent. Ontario and Michigan are still holding strong though. With the next two weeks pretty much locked into well below average temperatures we may witness the most ice cover on the great lakes in a very very long time. Likely the most in my life. Pretty awesome stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Latest AFD out of BUF still suggests the potential for a significant wind/snow event for the Lower Great Lakes. A PIECE OF THIS ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A POTENT SHORTWAVEWILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTOSATURDAY…SPAWNING A DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM NORTHERNONTARIO ACROSS THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND INTO QUEBEC. MODEL CONSENSUSSUGGESTS THAT THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITIONWITH REGARDS TO THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES FOR APOTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND/SNOW EVENT TO UNFOLD FRIDAY NIGHT INTOSATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING YET ANOTHER SHOT OFBITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTALPASSAGE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH VERY COLDTEMPERATURES SETS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS THE POTENTIALTO LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWSEAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO STARTING SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTINGINTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK...PARTICULARLY IF THE UPSTREAMCONNECTIONS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUGGESTED BY CURRENT GUIDANCEARE REALIZED. ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLYHAMPERED BY THE ICE COVERAGE ON THE LAKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Did anyone see the visibile satellite from this afternoon? The amount of ice cover on the great lakes is staggering. Quicks estimates put Superior at nearly 50 percent iced over, Huron around 40 percent iced up, and Erie around 85-90 percent. Ontario and Michigan are still holding strong though. With the next two weeks pretty much locked into well below average temperatures we may witness the most ice cover on the great lakes in a very very long time. Likely the most in my life. Pretty awesome stuff If this cold keeps up, we might get that rare 98-100% ice coverage out of lake erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It feels like I have spent the past 3 years smoking cirrus and being cold while NYC and the coast cash in on big snowstorms. This past few winters SUCKS for central upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 According to http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/ which has been quite accurate: Erie 87.2%, Huron 37.2%, Superior 28.8%, Michigan 23.8%, Ontario 5.6%. And it projects Erie hitting 95% this weekend. That hasn't happened in a while, at least since I've been following it. And it stinks, next week had some good potential for SW/WSW Metro dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Calling all Mets out there. Is this article/statement actually true? The maximum total was 42” at Depew (7 miles east of Buffalo) over a 24-hour period ending at 8 a.m. on December 3. West Seneca (about 7 miles southeast of downtown Buffalo) totaled 30” with 7” of this falling in just one 30 minute period between 3:30 p.m.-4:00 p.m. on December 2nd according to local storm spotters. If true, this would be one of the, if not the, most intense point snowfall on record anywhere in the world. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/lakeeffect-snowstorms-recent-and-historical No way...that band wasn't that intense. That was just moderate band that hung out in the same area for a very long time. The average rates in that south Buffalo band were in the 1.5-2"/hr. range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I'm not looking forward to such a cold pattern with relatively limited heavy snow potential for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I'm not looking forward to such a cold pattern with relatively limited heavy snow potential for our area. Agree. Looks more like the #paintrain than winter fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It feels like I have spent the past 3 years smoking cirrus and being cold while NYC and the coast cash in on big snowstorms. This past few winters SUCKS for central upstate NY. Yeah, ever since I moved out of southern CT in 2001, they've been getting clocked. Blizzard warnings almost every winter (however bogus those turn out to be). Couldn't buy a decent snowstorm down there for 2 decades with just a few exceptions, and most of them were winter of 95/96 or 1980s. Winter of 96-97 we had ZERO snow in SE CT after November...though it did sleet a few times. Look on the bright side...Anyone north of I-84 down there is getting shafted with this storm. We are not them. We had zero expectations...and we have met them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 No way...that band wasn't that intense. That was just moderate band that hung out in the same area for a very long time. The average rates in that south Buffalo band were in the 1.5-2"/hr. range. I thought so. The highest rates I can remember were back in the 2001 event. Weren't there some 4-6 inch per hour stuff during that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 According to http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/ which has been quite accurate: Erie 87.2%, Huron 37.2%, Superior 28.8%, Michigan 23.8%, Ontario 5.6%. And it projects Erie hitting 95% this weekend. That hasn't happened in a while, at least since I've been following it. And it stinks, next week had some good potential for SW/WSW Metro dumping. Yeah, except this is normally the time of year in which Lake Erie freezes over. So it freezing over completely by this weekend is about a week ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.