PB GFI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 When all was said and done I think the GFS handled this system the best. The NAM was a mess for days, the RGEM was too wet for a run or two and the Euro was too dry. The NAM never showed us any of its typical epic bombs that it loves to show in the 24-36hr range which is good. I'm sure it won't disappoint with the upcoming systems however. That 1/31 system has epic bomb model porn written all over it. The Euro has now missed 2 NESIS type storms , even at 0z Monday its run had .3 And didnt catch the Jan 3 storm until 36 hours out . The GFS blew every model away . That said the Canadian had it 1st but lost it , the GFS got it 3 days out and got stronger every run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Monday SW is trending stronger , Thurs Storm ( looks redic ) was frist mentioned by HM a week ago in the Philly thread . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 When all was said and done I think the GFS handled this system the best. The NAM was a mess for days, the RGEM was too wet for a run or two and the Euro was too dry. The NAM never showed us any of its typical epic bombs that it loves to show in the 24-36hr range which is good. I'm sure it won't disappoint with the upcoming systems however. That 1/31 system has epic bomb model porn written all over it. The GFS has been the most consistent with both big snowstorms this month. usually its suppressed and last on board but its been very reliable. That's why I trust it going forward with the storms showing up the rest of the month. Not sure what to make of the Euro lately, not only its flipping around but also last on board of the major models or in this case it never really got on board 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The Euro has now missed 2 NESIS type storms , even at 0z Monday its run had .3 And didnt catch the Jan 3 storm until 36 hours out . The GFS blew every model away . That said the Canadian had it 1st but lost it , the GFS got it 3 days out and got stronger every run . Well to be fair the Euro first picked up on yesterdays event in the long range, but then quickly lost it. The GGEM has also been particularly terrible this year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Beautiful and chilly out, nice system no surprises, snowgoggle hallunicinations on measurements, great day to fly a kite. see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Going to keep it at 11" storm total for me. There might have been some more overnight and some settling but that's about what I have. Very nice event all in all. 27" now for the season in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I feel like the ratios up here weren't quite as good as I was expecting perhaps due to the intensity being light for most of the day. When that band finally made it up this way flake size dramatically increased and we received about 75% of our total accumulation in about 4 hours. Final number was 10.7".Where do u have 10? My buddy lives in Pompton plains and had 5 maybe 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Come on , I told you that 4k NAM was gona be right for you . I want to see a pic of that 10 he said he has. I'm calling him out on this one . My buddy lives in the same town and his last report was 5 inches maybe he squeezed another .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 5 degrees at 10am with a foot of snow on the ground..WOW..very rare for these parts..has been an insane winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 5 degrees at 10am with a foot of snow on the ground..WOW..very rare for these parts..has been an insane winter Yup. Just in terms of overall wintry-ness (snow with bitter cold), this has to be the best month we've had since Jan 2004, actually probably better since I've had two events now make it to 10" or above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 10 inches from this past storm. Pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 A buddy of mine that lives in Chester, NY says that he received less than 2". Barely worth breaking out the shovel for.. 0 snow in kingston ny,not a flake lol.not far from Chester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 10.5" measured at Rutgers Gardens, bringing the seasonal total to 27.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Looks like places around me are reporting 10-15". Honestly nowhere for me to get a real measurement here. The open spaces have 0-5" of snow - but then there's 2 foot drifts near the house, and 1 foot drifts near the car. On on side of my car it's not even covered with any snow- but on the opposite side there's 5" stuck to it. This storm is inconclusive, I demand a redo without any wind. I have a lot of skepticism about some of the higher totals, including some from "Trained Spotters". I cannot make a case for there ever having been more than 8" on the ground here. I am going with 9" here because I wipe the board each day at midnight (it should be a consistent time, although NWS seems to recommend 9AMish) and we had about an inch after midnight. That inch did not increase the snowdepth which I very generously recorded as 8" this morning. I'm thinking I maybe should have called it 7". You can get a good picture of some of the local banding from this map, although some of those #s represent only partial storm totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I have a lot of skepticism about some of the higher totals, including some from "Trained Spotters". I cannot make a case for there ever having been more than 8" on the ground here. I am going with 9" here because I wipe the board each day at midnight (it should be a consistent time, although NWS seems to recommend 9AMish) and we had about an inch after midnight. That inch did not increase the snowdepth which I very generously recorded as 8" this morning. I'm thinking I maybe should have called it 7". You can get a good picture of some of the local banding from this map, although some of those #s represent only partial storm totals. 20140121midSuffolk1000.jpg believe me im questioning alot of the morris county numbers. i know people who live in some of those towns and are not coming close to some of those number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I posted an ob here at 11 pm and said I had 11.1 in North Merrick. NWS Upton snowfall totals read 11.1 in Merrick and 8 in North Merrick...yea ok. Smh Edit: messaged Upton. I'll see if they change it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 13" reported in Oceanside, 2 towns away from me. That reporter usually seems to be too high. Yesterday in the early afternoon there was a definite increase in snow amounts once south of Sunrise Highway, so the rest of Nassau must have really made up for it later in the storm to have higher totals of 10" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 13" reported in Oceanside, 2 towns away from me. That reporter usually seems to be too high. Yesterday in the early afternoon there was a definite increase in snow amounts once south of Sunrise Highway, so the rest of Nassau must have really made up for it later in the storm to have higher totals of 10" or more. there is no way I had more than 8 or 9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 there is no way I had more than 8 or 9" I'm pretty sure I had at least 10" here. I measured in several places away from where wind would contaminate much, and we got absolutely hammered early in the afternoon. Again, there was a big difference the further south you went from Sunrise Highway early in the afternoon. The Lido Beach observer having 10.5" at 10PM makes me a little more confident since a lot of times that reporter is on the low end. The Long Beach reporter had 8.5" as of 8PM. We had more snow after 10PM so 11" or maybe even a bit more is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 13" reported in Oceanside, 2 towns away from me. That reporter usually seems to be too high. Yesterday in the early afternoon there was a definite increase in snow amounts once south of Sunrise Highway, so the rest of Nassau must have really made up for it later in the storm to have higher totals of 10" or more. There was definitely significant banding in various locations at various times of the storm and there were certainly haves and have-nots. I think there is sort of a bidding process where people feed off each others numbers and start raising the ante. Too many posts about consensus because someone else also measured wrong. I'm not picking on any particular ob, except for generically just about all of the 14" reports in Suffolk County are suspect. This happens every storm, and particularly in windy storms. The me-too reports make it hard to cull out the real jackpots. Don't get me wrong, there were some. I've been on the low end of just about every storm, yet when I drive around nearby areas that reported more, they don't seem to have more snow on the ground. Hopefully we'll get some photographic evidence of the 14" totals because I want to believe them. By the way, pics of rulers stuck in the ground are ok to post, but they usually lack any kind of context to presume they are measuring in an appropriate location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I'm pretty sure I had at least 10" here. I measured in several places away from where wind would contaminate much, and we got absolutely hammered early in the afternoon. Again, there was a big difference the further south you went from Sunrise Highway early in the afternoon. The Lido Beach observer having 10.5" at 10PM makes me a little more confident since a lot of times that reporter is on the low end. The Long Beach reporter had 8.5" as of 8PM. We had more snow after 10PM so 11" or maybe even a bit more is possible. The early banding in SW Nassau makes 10" seem quite plausible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 There was definitely significant banding in various locations at various times of the storm and there were certainly haves and have-nots. I think there is sort of a bidding process where people feed off each others numbers and start raising the ante. Too many posts about consensus because someone else also measured wrong. I'm not picking on any particular ob, except for generically just about all of the 14" reports in Suffolk County are suspect. This happens every storm, and particularly in windy storms. The me-too reports make it hard to cull out the real jackpots. Don't get me wrong, there were some. I've been on the low end of just about every storm, yet when I drive around nearby areas that reported more, they don't seem to have more snow on the ground. Hopefully we'll get some photographic evidence of the 14" totals because I want to believe them. By the way, pics of rulers stuck in the ground are ok to post, but they usually lack any kind of context to presume they are measuring in an appropriate location. this is what i feel too, to be honest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I have a lot of skepticism about some of the higher totals, including some from "Trained Spotters". I question the totals, in general not just spotters, nearly all of the time unfortunately. I wonder how many people do "eye ball" measureables which will almost always wind up inflated. For example you may look out and think there's 2" of snow out there but when you measure it on the board its less. IMO, these differences only grow as the overall snowfall increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I have a lot of skepticism about some of the higher totals, including some from "Trained Spotters". are trained spotters required to use a snow board? i've measured snow all my life... never used a snow board, but one thing for sure, dry windy big snowstorms are the absolute worst to measure. it goes well beyond simple drifting. every little micro influence (ones undetectable by my eyeballs) exaggerates the amount of snow from spot to spot. last night i was getting widely varying totals for reasons i simply couldnt identify. this has happened to me plenty of time before with big, dry windy snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 There was definitely significant banding in various locations at various times of the storm and there were certainly haves and have-nots. I think there is sort of a bidding process where people feed off each others numbers and start raising the ante. Too many posts about consensus because someone else also measured wrong. I'm not picking on any particular ob, except for generically just about all of the 14" reports in Suffolk County are suspect. This happens every storm, and particularly in windy storms. The me-too reports make it hard to cull out the real jackpots. Don't get me wrong, there were some. I've been on the low end of just about every storm, yet when I drive around nearby areas that reported more, they don't seem to have more snow on the ground. Hopefully we'll get some photographic evidence of the 14" totals because I want to believe them. By the way, pics of rulers stuck in the ground are ok to post, but they usually lack any kind of context to presume they are measuring in an appropriate location. Couldn't agree more...been measuring snow for a long time and most of the time my totals are lower than nearby measurements ,and like you said when I drive around I dont see evidence of those higher totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Glad to hear I am not alone in this concern. I was seriously thinking of contacting the OKX skywarn coordinators to ask about what I might be doing wrong. I am just having a hard time accepting that I am. It was more of a problem than usual with the past 2 storms because they both required some subjective estimation, which is kind of like taking the leash off of the me-toos. I am not going to begrudge anyone that measuring snowfall in these two storms was difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I think some of the totals are too high as well. Anything over 13.0" is subjective. I had 11.0" and ISP airport came in with 11.2", so there could be wiggle room for +/- 1.5" give or take. Btw, each PNS states at the top that these are unofficial reports, so no one should take the exaggerated totals seriously. It's not like they are official. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 11" in se Nassau. I am not a trained spotter so I wouldn't report it. For those that are where is the best place to measure? In an open feild? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I think some of the totals are too high as well. Anything over 13.0" is subjective. I had 11.0" and ISP airport came in with 11.2", so there could be wiggle room for +/- 1.5" give or take. Btw, each PNS states at the top that these are unofficial reports, so no one should take the exaggerated totals seriously. It's not like they are official. No its not, but there are questions about some of the official stations as well. ISP until about 10 years ago was horrible at measuring snow, They do a much better job now, but I often think that they may have overdone it. Does any one know where at the airport they measure? I also wonder often how Upton always comes in near the top of the list. JFK is in a lousy place for snow, but they often seem to underperform the other underperformers. I am not sure I trust anyone. The KNYC report for this latest storm seems reasonable based on the radar I saw yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 My 4" rain gage managed to collect 5" of snow. It melted down to 0.26", so the ratios were definitely there this time. Estimated LE here = 0.47". I may try a core later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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