usedtobe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Not sure why the QPF figure shows up twice. I probably got too technical about the storm, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/01/20/significant-snowstorm-tuesday-with-widespread-4-or-greater-amounts/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 good article...like the CWG map more than usual... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I thought it was good and not overly technical.... or at least the technical aspects were well explained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Another excellent job Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Another nice article, Wes. I love reading your articles, but I've discovered that I enjoy the crazy comments too. Some of them are like watching a Springer episode, and it's an obvious reminder that there are a few whackos out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think I might have gone a little too heavy with the forecast I sent out to my little private distribution this morning. From your article it looks like you're thinking 15:1 is going to pan out. I'm definitely counting on 15:1, but I'm a little worried about UL wind speed and flake fragmentation. It's been a few years, but I think I recall you'd done a good bit of research on ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think I might have gone a little too heavy with the forecast I sent out to my little private distribution this morning. From your article it looks like you're thinking 15:1 is going to pan out. I'm definitely counting on 15:1, but I'm a little worried about UL wind speed and flake fragmentation. It's been a few years, but I think I recall you'd done a good bit of research on ratios? and he pops out of nowhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Good stuff, Wes. I'll take your thoughts on snow storms all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 and he pops out of nowhere It's been a boring three years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think I might have gone a little too heavy with the forecast I sent out to my little private distribution this morning. From your article it looks like you're thinking 15:1 is going to pan out. I'm definitely counting on 15:1, but I'm a little worried about UL wind speed and flake fragmentation. It's been a few years, but I think I recall you'd done a good bit of research on ratios? You may not be too heavy, I think we could bust low. I picked 15-1 because the wind could screw things up some by fragmentation especially late in the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nice article Wes as usual. It all makes sense and realistic to me Ender. Love the map. Seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think I might have gone a little too heavy with the forecast I sent out to my little private distribution this morning. From your article it looks like you're thinking 15:1 is going to pan out. I'm definitely counting on 15:1, but I'm a little worried about UL wind speed and flake fragmentation. It's been a few years, but I think I recall you'd done a good bit of research on ratios? Yo! Nice map....lets go with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Great read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 You may not be too heavy, I think we could bust low. I picked 15-1 because the wind could screw things up some by fragmentation especially late in the storm.Thanks for the reply. It's funny, one would think that ratios would be such a elementary piece of the puzzle. That was the case when I lived in NNE, it basically came down to: "Is the date between 12/1 and 3/1? Okay 20:1 then. Oh, it's colder than normal? We'll go with 25:1 then...." Down here every little nuance is just so critical. Ratios in this area are surprisingly tough. It's amazing how often CAA is either weaker or stronger (and dry air intrusion) than expected or elevated winds will ruin a high ratio for us. Having said that, tomorrow almost feels like a "gimme": remarkable QPF consistency across all the models, nearly classic UL profile, dynamics and no surface or BL worries. At least as of my 18Z novice impression. I'm afraid to look at the 0Z suite, though I can't imagine it's changed much. Good luck, and I hope everyone enjoys the storm... EDIT: Oh, and Ji, I hope you remember that I didn't post this time just to "End your snow storm hopes". I think I recall having my screen name defined in that context. --Shane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I don't know whether this should be on the "OBS" thread on a forecast thread... I'm beginning to think 15:1 is going to be a stretch. It's pretty windy up there between 800mb and 700mb at an average of 35 knots. It's not exactly tranquil between 900mb and 800mb either; a stiff 19kt breeze. I'd think that'd hold us in the 12:1 ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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