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OBS for 1/21 Coastal storm- The king of NW trends


Mitchell Gaines

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4.25 in Flying Hills, Berks Co.  After a good start this morning, things lightened up for awhile.  After a good burst in the last hour, back to what looks like moderate snow.  I'm not crazy about that back edge near Harrisburg but hopefully the radar continues to fill in as the coastal gets going.  Best of luck to all...

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Most of models at this point kind of have the rest of the storm being light/mod precip, but could last until at least evening. 

 

I think this last into the overnight hours.  We've still got a coastal forming.  Mt. Holly still has 6-8" to the beaches.

 

 

Here at Nj shore - nothing.... A small coating. Safe to assume that the storm here is a major bust.

 

Major bust?  Wow.  Storm was supposed to start for the shore in the 11-2pm time frame.  An hour and a half later, it's a bust.  Classic.

 

 

I really hope you are right! I sure don't see it on radar at this time. I still think 2" by tomorrow at 7am will be a surprise but i'll try to keep the faith! I want to.

 

You'll get yours.  Don't worry.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0328 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MD/NRN VA/DE/NJ/SERN PA/SERN MY/SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 212128Z - 220330Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL -- ONGOING WITHIN A BAND FROM THE

MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND -- WILL CONTINUE

THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" TO 2" PER

HOUR EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EXTENDING FROM NRN VA/ERN MD NEWD INTO

SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SNOWFALL IS OCCURRING WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED

DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NRN AND NWRN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE LOW

ANALYZED JUST OFF THE SERN VA COAST...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO

DEEPEN/SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME AS A STRONG UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH

CONTINUES DIGGING INTO/ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GA THIS EVENING.

THIS BAND OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY CHANGE ORIENTATION THIS

EVENING -- FROM BEING A SW-NE BAND TO MORE SSW-NNE CONFIGURATION --

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH

TIME. THAT BEING SAID THOUGH...THE PIVOTING BAND OF HEAVIEST

SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND

REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE /TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE GENERALLY

RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S/ SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS AT OR ABOVE

15-1 WILL AID IN ENHANCEMENT OF THE ALREADY HEAVY PRECIPITATION

RATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" TO 2" PER

HOUR AFFECTING THE PHILADELPHIA/NEW YORK CITY/BOSTON CORRIDOR

THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..GOSS.. 01/21/2014

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...

LWX...

LAT...LON 41236955 40977023 40957093 40767194 40357291 39987345

39487385 38667446 38157529 38217701 38547792 39587808

40607665 42787178 42827079 42647018 42196950 41236955

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I admit to being in full weenie mode so I might just be hallucinating, but it really looks like the radar is filling in rapidly right over the I-95 corridor and to the west.  Heck, the areas to the west there even appears to be a miniature death band forming for those who missed out on the earlier band.... well, "death band" might be overstating things, but there does appear to be a band of heavier snow up that way.   

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0328 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MD/NRN VA/DE/NJ/SERN PA/SERN MY/SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 212128Z - 220330Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL -- ONGOING WITHIN A BAND FROM THE

MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND -- WILL CONTINUE

THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" TO 2" PER

HOUR EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EXTENDING FROM NRN VA/ERN MD NEWD INTO

SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SNOWFALL IS OCCURRING WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED

DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NRN AND NWRN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE LOW

ANALYZED JUST OFF THE SERN VA COAST...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO

DEEPEN/SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME AS A STRONG UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH

CONTINUES DIGGING INTO/ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GA THIS EVENING.

THIS BAND OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY CHANGE ORIENTATION THIS

EVENING -- FROM BEING A SW-NE BAND TO MORE SSW-NNE CONFIGURATION --

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH

TIME. THAT BEING SAID THOUGH...THE PIVOTING BAND OF HEAVIEST

SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND

REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE /TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE GENERALLY

RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S/ SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS AT OR ABOVE

15-1 WILL AID IN ENHANCEMENT OF THE ALREADY HEAVY PRECIPITATION

RATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" TO 2" PER

HOUR AFFECTING THE PHILADELPHIA/NEW YORK CITY/BOSTON CORRIDOR

THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..GOSS.. 01/21/2014

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...

LWX...

LAT...LON 41236955 40977023 40957093 40767194 40357291 39987345

39487385 38667446 38157529 38217701 38547792 39587808

40607665 42787178 42827079 42647018 42196950 41236955

 

Thank you very much!

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0328 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MD/NRN VA/DE/NJ/SERN PA/SERN MY/SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 212128Z - 220330Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL -- ONGOING WITHIN A BAND FROM THE

MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND -- WILL CONTINUE

THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" TO 2" PER

HOUR EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EXTENDING FROM NRN VA/ERN MD NEWD INTO

SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SNOWFALL IS OCCURRING WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED

DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NRN AND NWRN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE LOW

ANALYZED JUST OFF THE SERN VA COAST...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO

DEEPEN/SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME AS A STRONG UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH

CONTINUES DIGGING INTO/ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GA THIS EVENING.

THIS BAND OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY CHANGE ORIENTATION THIS

EVENING -- FROM BEING A SW-NE BAND TO MORE SSW-NNE CONFIGURATION --

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH

TIME. THAT BEING SAID THOUGH...THE PIVOTING BAND OF HEAVIEST

SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND

REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE /TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE GENERALLY

RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S/ SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS AT OR ABOVE

15-1 WILL AID IN ENHANCEMENT OF THE ALREADY HEAVY PRECIPITATION

RATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" TO 2" PER

HOUR AFFECTING THE PHILADELPHIA/NEW YORK CITY/BOSTON CORRIDOR

THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..GOSS.. 01/21/2014

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...

LWX...

LAT...LON 41236955 40977023 40957093 40767194 40357291 39987345

39487385 38667446 38157529 38217701 38547792 39587808

40607665 42787178 42827079 42647018 42196950 41236955

 

and, boom, goes the dynamite! 

 

Somebody in the right spot... and that spot is looking like it is going to be somewhere within 25 miles of PHL... is going to get 18" before this is said and done. 

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I think this last into the overnight hours.  We've still got a coastal forming.  Mt. Holly still has 6-8" to the beaches.

 

 

 

Major bust?  Wow.  Storm was supposed to start for the shore in the 11-2pm time frame.  An hour and a half later, it's a bust.  Classic.

 

 

 

You'll get yours.  Don't worry.

Let me know when you see the ccb  :) ,

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Maybe its highly localized... maybe its too much board clearing... maybe its measuring in drifts... but when I've told people what the reports said they got in their town, the response has been "It doesn't look like that much".

 

Drifts, for example my neighbors hilly lawn across the street is still showing grass

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I realize the circumstances and pattern are different but there are at least a couple of occasions I remember over the years when the "sensible weather" said things were winding down even when the "players" were still in position, and there was a kind of second wind if you will and it didn't disappoint. Not predicting, just saying stay tuned.

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