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OBS for 1/21 Coastal storm- The king of NW trends


Mitchell Gaines

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It looks like the radar is filling in a little. FWIW, Dan Skeldon thinks we could still see some snow. The only issue is that the heaviest snow might be falling over the ocean.

 

I am not prepared to call it a "major bust" yet.  There is still a ton of moisture to the west.  We will probably be on the low side of the forecast, but I still think we will hit warning criteria.  Thoughts from anyone else?

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That snow is nothing like what the death band saw.  The death band was 2+" an hour rates and it SAT there.  Dover radar shows nothing close to like that.

Oh I agree, some great frontogenesis earlier...some good lightning offshore right now..

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Glenn said yesterday we wouldn't start getting into any appreciable snow until after 4 pm...have patience. We will get ours tonight . This is far from a bust lol

I love bust calls when the storm is only 1/4 over, lol. Mt. Holly's newest map still has 6-8 even down to the beaches, the frigging low is still off hatteras, lol.

post-89-0-45788800-1390337858_thumb.png

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My mother (teaches at Beck Middle School) just got home and said that they were having bus issues there, too. Had to stay after a little longer and even when she left, one of the buses still hadn't arrived.

 

Unfortunately, that bodes even worse for the youngest kiddos.  Since the buses take the high school kids home first, then circle back for the middle school kids and finally return last to get the elementary kids, that means, if the middle school kids had bus delays, the elementary kids likely had (and are still having) even worse delays.  I realize there are conflicting perspectives here (for example, if a parent is at work and unable to get home quickly, it would be quite a problem if the school suddenly announces they are sending their young kids home 4 hours early), but it sure seems to make sense to send the littlest kids home first in a situation like this.  Worst case scenario, the older kids are a little more capable of fending for themselves and/or dealing with being stuck at school for a few extra hours waiting for buses or a ride home.     

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I love bust calls when the storm is only 1/4 over, lol. Mt. Holly's newest map still has 6-8 even down to the beaches, the frigging low is still off hatteras, lol.

I really hope you are right! I sure don't see it on radar at this time. I still think 2" by tomorrow at 7am will be a surprise but i'll try to keep the faith! I want to.

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Philly put up a Snow Emergency about 40 minutes ago. All cars off Snow Emergency Routes.  All public/parochial schools closed tomorrow.

 

Temp is dropping like a rock.  Snow has picked up and getting some fog too.

 

SN (and fog)

Winds NNE moderate with some occassional howling gusts

Temp 16,9 F and falling

Vis 1/2 mile

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If I had to guess, the Winter Storm Warning for this area will come down at 5 PM and replaced with a WAA for 2 or 3 inches (maybe) of snow.

 

I wouldn't be so sure of that.  Look to your south and west, there is quite a bit of snow developing and backfilling.  Admittedly it appears to be the light-to-moderate variety rather than 2"-per-hour stuff, but that will still pile up.  Even if nothing else changes, that alone will likely get you to WSW criteria.  Now, if the storm intensifies as rapidly as the models think it could, you could most definitely still be in line for your forecasted amount.

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