Grothar of Herndon Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z NAM DCA 0.56" total 140121/1600Z 22 03011KT 28.1F SNOW 17:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 17:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0140121/1700Z 23 03013KT 25.8F SNOW 17:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 17:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0140121/1800Z 24 02014KT 23.8F SNOW 16:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 17:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140121/1900Z 25 02012KT 22.5F SNOW 16:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073 17:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0140121/2000Z 26 01014KT 21.1F SNOW 18:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 17:1| 4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0140121/2100Z 27 01014KT 19.8F SNOW 17:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064 17:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0140121/2200Z 28 01013KT 18.8F SNOW 20:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 17:1| 6.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38 100| 0| 0140121/2300Z 29 01012KT 18.2F SNOW 20:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 18:1| 7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 100| 0| 0140122/0000Z 30 36012KT 17.9F SNOW 20:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 18:1| 8.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.46 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140122/0100Z 31 35013KT 17.5F SNOW 19:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038 18:1| 8.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.50 100| 0| 0140122/0200Z 32 35013KT 17.1F SNOW 15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 18:1| 9.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53 100| 0| 0140122/0300Z 33 35015KT 16.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 17:1| 9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 100| 0| 0140122/0400Z 34 35016KT 15.2F SNOW 24:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 17:1| 9.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Happy hour GooFuS time? Ha...I'm sipping a glass of wine now, Happy Hour GFS hopefully won't disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z GFS gets to JYO around 7am and the rest of us by 8:00 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yeah, I know and very true...but still worth noting as a potential high-end value. At least it's as much or more than before in terms of any trend. Thanks...I thought it was higher than before, that's quite a bit more actually. 12z RGEM was 12mm... 18z is 19mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Only one SREF ens member has less than 0.40". The mean is 0.60, pretty much in line with the 12Z GFS and the 18Z NAM. The mean this time is brought down by one lone outlier at .15. That one member at .15" also has us in the 40's tomorrow afternoon when 20 of the 21 other members are all below 25*. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Ha...I'm sipping a glass of wine now, Happy Hour GFS hopefully won't disappoint. I'll crack open a good beer if this run is a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS looks good. Earlier start, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Gfs will prolly come in with one of those insane 18z bombs Yup. lol Here is RGEM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z NAM BWI Total 0.55" 140121/1600Z 22 03011KT 25.8F SNOW 18:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 18:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0140121/1700Z 23 03013KT 24.0F SNOW 19:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045 19:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0140121/1800Z 24 02014KT 22.5F SNOW 19:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055 19:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140121/1900Z 25 02013KT 21.3F SNOW 17:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.068 19:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0140121/2000Z 26 01014KT 20.2F SNOW 18:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066 18:1| 4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0140121/2100Z 27 01014KT 19.5F SNOW 18:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058 18:1| 5.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0140121/2200Z 28 01012KT 18.8F SNOW 17:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 18:1| 6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0140121/2300Z 29 01012KT 18.4F SNOW 22:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 19:1| 7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0140122/0000Z 30 36011KT 18.2F SNOW 21:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 19:1| 8.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140122/0100Z 31 36012KT 18.0F SNOW 19:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 19:1| 9.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0140122/0200Z 32 35013KT 17.5F SNOW 16:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 19:1| 9.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0140122/0300Z 33 35014KT 16.2F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 18:1| 9.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 100| 0| 0140122/0400Z 34 35015KT 14.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 18:1| 10.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'll crack open a good beer if this run is a winner. I got myself some Drambuie (Christmas gift), that will do quite well also! If this works out. Otherwise, good for drowning sorrows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS is a pummeling...a tad north of other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS over 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hard to imagine we get the 12-14 hour duration being simulated...snow usually starts earlier and then ends sooner than advertised, outside of events like 09/10. If it does snow 14 hours, then we all end up on the high side of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS is a pummeling...a tad north of other guidance Does that mean I dry slot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS is a big time hit... gonna be wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS is even wetter than 12Z. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS 0.5"+ for everybody... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Does that mean I dry slot? No, you are over 0.5" also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Getting goosebumps with the play by play... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Does that mean I dry slot? you get at least 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS is a lot better than the NAM and RGEM down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What are the ratios for this hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 USA_VVEL_700mb_027.gif Nice...so through late afternoon or so we're still in the good VV. I like how the models have been depicting a closed 850-mb circulation as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Matt, surface temp at onset? I've been out all day enjoying the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Those GFS 700mb VVs look really nice for tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_036.gif does that include ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What are the ratios for this hit? Where you are I'd bet 15-1 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Mapgirl for the win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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