EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 For a 6 inch storm? TWC is absurd. Based on their forecast, it is no big deal and only 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 How this PJ s/w gets enough room between PV revolutions is beyond me! It truly is amazing timing and makes you wonder what is coming up next. To me what is amazing is that the analogs last week were saying there was potential so this has happened at least 3 times before (twice in 1961). It takes pretty much perfect timing. some of the earlier clippers got squash or sheared by by's rotating by to the north. This one somehow found room or so it seems. It's now late enough in the game I doubt things will fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Rumor has it that Cantore is headed to DC.. Welp this storm was fun while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmac Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Rumor has it that Cantore is headed to DC.. ah sh*t! storm cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You should do great on this one. You are in extreme SE PA correct?. I am in Mount Laurel, NJ. I am expecting at least 6 inches. Neat site. So much to see and learn. Looking at the streamlines, is the convergence area denoted by non-paralell (meeting at angles) streamlines. If so, looks like there is a pretty good zone out this way. Yes, the confluence there will focus snow bands. This may start off in NW burbs but it will rotate down into the cities easily, given the track of the mid-level lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 To me what is amazing is that the analogs last week were saying there was potential so this has happened at least 3 times before (twice in 1961). It takes pretty much perfect timing. some of the earlier clippers got squash or sheared by by's rotating by to the north. This one somehow found room or so it seems. It's now late enough in the game I doubt things will fall apart. This is a stronger vort then the earlier ones. So I assume that would help it stay together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Sneak preview from the future: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 17z GFS is a very nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 To me what is amazing is that the analogs last week were saying there was potential so this has happened at least 3 times before (twice in 1961). It takes pretty much perfect timing. some of the earlier clippers got squash or sheared by by's rotating by to the north. This one somehow found room or so it seems. It's now late enough in the game I doubt things will fall apart. Yeah, every year I am becoming more and more a believer in the CPC analog guidance for snow potential. They certainly did indicate a potential for a low-end threat from a PJ wave. It still is amazing that it could end up on the high-end with this perfect timing that we are noting. This doesn't happen often, especially south of Philadelphia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Sneak preview from the future:my most viral pic ever;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 it's fine...it is a direct crushing hit Have not seen us refer to crushing since Feb 2010. Woohoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Winter Storm jANUS ya'll! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It is sorta like IMBY, who cares about anyone elses. It's not you.. lots of people do it. It's fine except when every post becomes about someone's call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 For a 6 inch storm? TWC is absurd. 6 inches in DC is a big deal. Cantore will set up shop near the Capitol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yes, the confluence there will focus snow bands. This may start off in NW burbs but it will rotate down into the cities easily, given the track of the mid-level lows. BTW, be sure to check out the GFS on that page too. You'll see that, while minor, it handles these convergence zones a little differently. Also, be sure to look at those banding sites I've linked you guys to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yeah, every year I am becoming more and more a believer in the CPC analog guidance for snow potential. They certainly did indicate a potential for a low-end threat from a PJ wave. It still is amazing that it could end up on the high-end with this perfect timing that we are noting. This doesn't happen often, especially south of Philadelphia. yep...I have become more enamored with them this winter...we saw some of the possible higher end solutions here....1/61 of course...2/95...mixed in with more modest ones, so we knew the pattern at least supported the possibility...now in the 6-10 day window euro ens analogs are still showing 2/95, 1/61 and now 1/82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Thanks to all of you and the warning info, I have pulled the trigger and told my husband that I would prefer that he not go into work tomorrow. He said he would also pass the info along to his co-workers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 my most viral pic ever;) That's your screen cap? Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 yep...I have become more enamored with them this winter...we saw some of the possible higher end solutions here....1/61 of course...2/95...mixed in with more modest ones, so we knew the pattern at least supported the possibility...now in the 6-10 day window euro ens analogs are still showing 2/95, 1/61 and now 1/82 Gee...and we get another familiar PV revolution too in that window... any chance of getting some southern stream then?? Well, I'm OT but whatever...onto the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 WPC (Formerly HPC) - Snowfall Mean (50th percentile) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Gee...and we get another familiar PV revolution too in that window... any chance of getting some southern stream then?? Well, I'm OT but whatever...onto the 18z GFS. not to go too OT, but how long will the relaxation period be at the beginning of February?...4-5 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Sneak preview from the future: Funny as hell ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Pretty nice http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_08.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I shed some tears that day for you guys. It still makes me quite emotional. Yeah, that one still really hurts even now. It really seemed like such an opportunity to break the less-than-two-inch streak at DCA and all we got was white rain. That, plus the usual criticism because schools and the Fed Gov't shut down for that one (I don't blame the closures, they were made pre-dawn and given the indications it was legitimate...once that cat is out of the bag, it's not like you can retract it). I also remember someone who posted a GIF image of that kid Nelson from the Simpsons saying "HA, HA!!"...it was kinda funny in hindsight, but added insult to injury around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 in case anyone missed it -- Matt does not give a **** about anywhere but DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 RGEM is another crush job for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Almost into RAP range, right Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is a stronger vort then the earlier ones. So I assume that would help it stay together? Part of the reason it ends up stronger is it has more room to dig. all the others had another shortwave right on heals or one that wouldn't allow the vort room to strenthen and then take on the negative tilt right where we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Part of the reason it ends up stronger is it has more room to dig. all the others had another shortwave right on heals or one that wouldn't allow the vort room to strenthen and then take on the negative tilt right where we need it. Thanks Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 RGEM is another crush job for the area. Looks like NAM qpf or just a shade higher, at least around DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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