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1/21 Redeveloping Clipper Storm


DDweatherman

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How this PJ s/w gets enough room between PV revolutions is beyond me! It truly is amazing timing and makes you wonder what is coming up next.

 

 

To me what is amazing is that the analogs last week were saying there was potential so this has happened at least 3 times before (twice in 1961).  It takes pretty much perfect timing.  some of the earlier clippers got squash or sheared by by's rotating by to the north. This one somehow found room or so it seems.  It's now late enough in the game I doubt things will fall apart. 

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You should do great on this one. You are in extreme SE PA correct?.

 

I am in Mount Laurel, NJ. I am expecting at least 6 inches.

 

Neat site.  So much to see and learn.  Looking at the streamlines, is the convergence area denoted by non-paralell (meeting at angles) streamlines.  If so, looks like there is a pretty good zone out this way.

 

Yes, the confluence there will focus snow bands. This may start off in NW burbs but it will rotate down into the cities easily, given the track of the mid-level lows.

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To me what is amazing is that the analogs last week were saying there was potential so this has happened at least 3 times before (twice in 1961).  It takes pretty much perfect timing.  some of the earlier clippers got squash or sheared by by's rotating by to the north. This one somehow found room or so it seems.  It's now late enough in the game I doubt things will fall apart. 

 

This is a stronger vort then the earlier ones. So I assume that would help it stay together?

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To me what is amazing is that the analogs last week were saying there was potential so this has happened at least 3 times before (twice in 1961).  It takes pretty much perfect timing.  some of the earlier clippers got squash or sheared by by's rotating by to the north. This one somehow found room or so it seems.  It's now late enough in the game I doubt things will fall apart. 

 

Yeah, every year I am becoming more and more a believer in the CPC analog guidance for snow potential. They certainly did indicate a potential for a low-end threat from a PJ wave. It still is amazing that it could end up on the high-end with this perfect timing that we are noting. This doesn't happen often, especially south of Philadelphia.

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Yes, the confluence there will focus snow bands. This may start off in NW burbs but it will rotate down into the cities easily, given the track of the mid-level lows.

 

BTW, be sure to check out the GFS on that page too. You'll see that, while minor, it handles these convergence zones a little differently. Also, be sure to look at those banding sites I've linked you guys to...

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Yeah, every year I am becoming more and more a believer in the CPC analog guidance for snow potential. They certainly did indicate a potential for a low-end threat from a PJ wave. It still is amazing that it could end up on the high-end with this perfect timing that we are noting. This doesn't happen often, especially south of Philadelphia.

 

yep...I have become more enamored with them this winter...we saw some of the possible higher end solutions here....1/61 of course...2/95...mixed in with more modest ones, so we knew the pattern at least supported the possibility...now in the 6-10 day window euro ens analogs are still showing 2/95, 1/61 and now 1/82

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yep...I have become more enamored with them this winter...we saw some of the possible higher end solutions here....1/61 of course...2/95...mixed in with more modest ones, so we knew the pattern at least supported the possibility...now in the 6-10 day window euro ens analogs are still showing 2/95, 1/61 and now 1/82

 

Gee...and we get another familiar PV revolution too in that window... any chance of getting some southern stream then?? Well, I'm OT but whatever...onto the 18z GFS.

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Gee...and we get another familiar PV revolution too in that window... any chance of getting some southern stream then?? Well, I'm OT but whatever...onto the 18z GFS.

 

not to go too OT, but how long will the relaxation period be at the beginning of February?...4-5 days?

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I shed some tears that day for you guys. It still makes me quite emotional.  :cry:

 

Yeah, that one still really hurts even now.  It really seemed like such an opportunity to break the less-than-two-inch streak at DCA and all we got was white rain.  That, plus the usual criticism because schools and the Fed Gov't shut down for that one (I don't blame the closures, they were made pre-dawn and given the indications it was legitimate...once that cat is out of the bag, it's not like you can retract it).

 

I also remember someone who posted a GIF image of that kid Nelson from the Simpsons saying "HA, HA!!"...it was kinda funny in hindsight, but added insult to injury around here!

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This is a stronger vort then the earlier ones. So I assume that would help it stay together?

Part of the reason it ends up stronger is it has more room to dig.  all the others had another shortwave right on heals or one that wouldn't allow the vort room to strenthen and then take on the negative tilt right where we need it. 

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