gymengineer Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It's also about 3-hrs behind the 12Z run in moving in the super-cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18Z NAM 24h QPF 03Z 1/21 to 03Z 1/22 18z_NAM.jpg The NAM's 500 looks better each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 NAM QPF through 1AM Wed image.jpg Very pretty!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I was joking about the map and the fact it goes up to 120" and that the colors look like that range I'd say they were saving those colors for the Sierras, but damn if they can't buy snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 1pm on hi-res NAM DC is 1/8 - 1/4mi ++ If the 500h is right, the nam is gonna be right. Still don't trust the nam's qpf as it can get jazzy but now 0.50 looks doable with the euro now in the same general ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I will probably get slaughtered here but whoever gets only 4 inches from this storm should be considered in the bust zone. I think most people will report 6 or more. 6-9>4-7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 both the euro and the gfs have a good window 0zish to 6zish to hit criteria. gfs the windier of the two out on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wonder if we'll get some blizzard warnings for DE coast, NJ coast etc. Maybe even the bay counties but probably mainly near shore where the best odds are. I'm glad you mentioned this. After seeing Matt post about the vis here, I was thinking coastal areas could see blizz warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Plot the 850mb winds. Deformation/convergence starts in NW suburbs and then comes right down into DC 18z-21z. Awesome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Berk's map is actually pretty good imo https://twitter.com/JustinWeather/status/425355624239493121 No it is not.... his map is trying to fringe me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 One of the best trends that has been witnessed in some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_036.gif what the tuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I will probably get slaughtered here but whoever gets only 4 inches from this storm should be considered in the bust zone. I think most people will report 6 or more. 6-9>4-7? I'm worried some that we might be underdone with our 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 18Z NAM HiRes sim radar has I-95 under 28+ dbz reflectivity for 5 hours (noon-5pm)! That would be nuts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Plot the 850mb winds. Deformation/convergence starts in NW suburbs and then comes right down into DC 18z-21z. Awesome... Sounds awesome HM. Right in time for evening rush as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm worried some that we might be underdone with our 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yeah Wes, me too. Still think 4-8" covers most bases, but something like 5-8/5-9" might be more accurate.. I'm worried some that we might be underdone with our 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If the 500h is right, the nam is gonna be right. Still don't trust the nam's qpf as it can get jazzy but now 0.50 looks doable with the euro now in the same general ballpark. You had me at hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Plot the 850mb winds. Deformation/convergence starts in NW suburbs and then comes right down into DC 18z-21z. Awesome... how far NW? Winchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yeah Wes, me too. Still think 4-8" covers most bases, but something like 5-8/5-9" might be more accurate.. Someone in the LWX area who gets the combination of best lift and snow ratios will probably get double digits if current progs verify. But I agree that 4-8" is probably best area-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 3/9/99, I got 12:1...ground truth the same...daytime storm starting around 8am - ending around 11pm.....temp 24-25.....This one wont be quite as wet, but I have to imagine, I will get better ratios on 1/20 than 3/9 even with similar temp profiles....that was a wetter storm coming from the west...I dont think it had canadian origin....This one will be more powder...14:1 should be reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I enjoyed seeing the words "heavy snow" in LWX's afternoon discussion. .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OHIOVALLEY LATE TONIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE POTOMACHIGHLANDS TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICALFORCING IS EXPECTED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW...WEST OFTHE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWTUESDAY MORNING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A WINTER STORM WARNING ISIN EFFECT FOR SAID REGION FROM 9Z TUES TO 00Z WED. IN THE COURSEOF TUESDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORENEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES EAST RESULTING IN ENHANCED LIFT. THESFC LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS OBX AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL MOVEEAST AND INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY TUES MID-MORNING.12Z ECMWF CAME AROUND TO JOIN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS THISAFTERNOON WHICH CAME IN WETTER AND WITH A MORE INTENSE LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM. BANDING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS GFS AND NAM HAVE ANAREA OF FN VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE NEARMIDDAY TUESDAY MOVING SE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON IMPACTING DC ANDNOVA. THIS MAY BE TOO PRECISE AT THIS TIME BUT SIGNS LIKE THESEWILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL TOTALS. TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLEWEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND 4-6 INCHES EAST OF THE BL RIDGE. IFBANDING DOES HAPPEN... TOTALS OF UP TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLEUNDER A STRONG SNOW BAND. TRAVELING WILL BE HAZARDOUS TUESAFTERNOON AND EVENING.TEMPS WILL NOT FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND TUESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR MOVESINTO THE REGION. MX TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL LIKELY BE REACHED EARLYTUESDAY AND DROP INTO THE TEENS BY THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILLLEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AROUND THE METROS TO-10 WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY EVENING. Source: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Matt you are not lol'ng at me anymore are you?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yeah Wes, me too. Still think 4-8" covers most bases, but something like 5-8/5-9" might be more accurate.. i dont see anyone having only 4. I think 4 should be removed and have a 5 instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If the 500h is right, the nam is gonna be right. Still don't trust the nam's qpf as it can get jazzy but now 0.50 looks doable with the euro now in the same general ballpark. we'll let the nam get jiggy wit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Matt you are not lol'ng at me anymore are you?. I still don't think I will get 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm worried some that we might be underdone with our 4-7. Well, from the snow lover's standpoint that could be a good thing (rather than the opposite, of course)! Is the bus getting started, or has it rusted out after 3 years of inactivity and being put in the Smithsonian museum of American History as an ancient relic?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 how far NW? Winchester? Go here: http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Click on NAM, then 850mb and then choose "relative humidity." They plot streamlines on that image, so you can see the convergence zone/deformation zone working NW to SE. Someone in NE MD seems to get pivot action out of it. Also be sure to do this at the 700mb layer too. You'll see that zone is further to the NW, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 i dont see anyone having only 4. I think 4 should be removed and have a 5 instead? I'll probably be closer to 4 down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I still don't think I will get 10". Come back tomorrow night and we will see who is right. And it does not necessarily have to be you. I said someone in our subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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