Ji Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Looked at all 6z stuff and all systems go. Should be .4-6 for pretty much all of us with .35 worst case. Gfs is too broad and juiced imho. High res stuff hints at 2 precip maxes. N md as the overall highest as expected but another heavier stripe somewhere south and prob east of 95 but hard to say. Banding placement is still tbd. I think the vort placement is still the same. Has it shifted north? I don't see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I dunno Bob gfs looks legit to me. It's an outlier against all other guidance. Could be onto something but I personally doubt it. Of course I hope its right but needs some support that I'm not seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I think the vort placement is still the same. Has it shifted north? I don't see it I can't see much difference. Were dealing with minor diffs with best forcing. Radar should be fun all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 What is it about the mason dixon line always getting the good stuff first? don't worry....it'll shift south as the slp develops in NC and then moves off the coast you can see it if you run the "loop all" on the RAP precip http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=rap&area=namer&cycle=20140121%2010%20UTC¶m=precip_p01&fourpan=no&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I will say..Radar dreams here..but the GFS is the only model that looked to get significant precip into ROA this early in the game. It looks like they have a big band right on their doorstep. Might be good for us downstream. Definitely beginning to develop just to my west. Hopefully this thing overperforms down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltimoreguy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I dont comprehend why the latest AFD out of LWX insists that northern Virginia will get 6 to 10 inches of snow. I've seen the latest model runs. It is obvious that the heaviest snows are farther north, if not in Pennsylvania, then in northern Maryland. Maybe the mets at the NWS are asleep. When I wake up in about 6 hours I expect to see cloudy skies with a winter weather advisory - or no advisory at all - with an inch of snow expected for my back yard. Someone really needs to politely enlighten these renowned NWS mets about the latest model runs. It's farther north. We're not getting 6 to 10 inches in N VA. Pennsylvania and N MD will. I'm not knocking the mets, I respect them, but the models are farther north which means we will be spared all the heavy snow, I can work out this afternoon and Baltimore can spin their tires instead of northern Virginians. Both the NWS site and my phone's weather center are all honking about heavy snow for N VA. I don't get it, I've seen the model runs. North trend wins, if I am lucky enough to get a dusting, I'll be happy. Just give me my Arctic air. Textbook case of model hugging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Definitely beginning to develop just to my west. Hopefully this thing overperforms down here. We hope it does too. Your obs are important to everyone. Especially the n trend freakers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 What did last cras say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I took a look at the 6z hires NAM. Had 0.4"+ for DC. But I did notice a narrow stripe of 0.5"+ making a bee line towards DC, potentially hinting at a band setting up somewhere near there. the 0z Hires suggested something similar but had it a bit more south, towards Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Latest 10Z RAP is a slight improvement. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=rap_jet:&runtime=2014012110&plot_type=acsnw_t3sfc&fcst=18&time_inc=60&num_times=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 We still thinking 12 to 15 for ratios, or closer to 10 now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Probably 10 to start but 12 and 15 during the height of the storm this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 We still thinking 12 to 15 for ratios, or closer to 10 now? Surface temps aren't the sole deciding factor for ratios, remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Surface temps aren't the sole deciding factor for ratios, remember. Yeah, I know that. But the surface temps might be indicative of less cold air at elevation than was forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yeah, I know that. But the surface temps might be indicative of less cold air at elevation than was forecast. Um, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
megisemo Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Reading this thread is an emotional roller coaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Probably 10 to start but 12 and 15 during the height of the storm this afternoon Agree. Prob 12-1 as soon as surface hits freezing with mod rates and getting better from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 One thing that is definitely off right now are the temps. Projected in the upper 20's, I'm sill holding in the mid 30's with an east wind. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JW21 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Just checked traffic cams. Snowing heavily in Highland County, Covington, along the WV border. Also snowing in Harrisonburg and New Market, in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Going to close this since it's obviously game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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