Jebman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I just noticed that the NWS even has VIRGINIA BEACH and NORFOLK under a winter storm warning for 3-5 inches of snow. If this thing is modeled to be farther north, what the heck is going on here? Why is Virginia Beach under a WSW for 3-5 inches of snow? Almost the entire state of VA is now under a WSW for snow. What gives? Doesnt Wes live in Southern MD? That region is forecast to get 11 inches or more of snow! I thought this storm was modeled to be farther north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Jeb, it's not all models that are "north". I am guessing this is where the pros earn their money, they have made their call. I hope they are right. The 6z GFS was plenty awesome for pretty much all the area. Let's ride that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wouldnt it be shweet if the GFS turns out to be right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This one could be another chapter in how we get screwed within 12 hours of event start. Seems like my concerns about the north trend last night were valid. Everyone hates people who bring up concerns, but why, if the concerns are valid? So, we have less QPF, warmer temps, lower rates, lower liquid:snow ratio, later start...I could see having wet streets most of the daylight hours. Maybe a little thump near the end after dark to finally give us a decent coating. Like 2-3" on grass, 1" on roadways. Most will then sublimate overnight. A far cry from what everyone was expecting 12 hours ago. Did you see the GFS 6z...your concerns are valid but if the latest reliable guidance says solid hit why are you posting this now. It would have been better timed at 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Down to 34! Nice drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 So we have maybe a glimmer of hope with the 6Z GFS, but we all know it's usually prudent to go with the model that screws us the most down here. And hanging on to hope with one last model that still shows us with good snow is a top sign of a busting system. And we're hanging onto 6Z GFS, which seems to be typically the least "trusted" of the 4 GFS runs. Thanks, mr happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Moved the incessant whining to the banter thread. Take it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Well, I am happy at least the federal govt closed. I can now go back to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Well, I am happy at least the federal govt closed. I can now go back to sleep. If you slept through the storm, we'd all be cool with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 So we have maybe a glimmer of hope with the 6Z GFS, but we all know it's usually prudent to go with the model that screws us the most down here. And hanging on to hope with one last model that still shows us with good snow is a top sign of a busting system. And we're hanging onto 6Z GFS, which seems to be typically the least "trusted" of the 4 GFS runs. Maybe you're right..who knows..neither you or I or anyone even Wes really knows the final outcome...but that part about least trusted is not valid...minus any feedback errors a 6z GFS run is just as reliable as any other and probably more so than NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 So the same two people are still being negative? Awesome. I sit around 34, and have 3-4 hours to get where I need to be, and the models still look sweet. Not concerned yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Even though we are a few hours out from the event starting, the 6z models should still not be fully trusted --- they have less data, as usual, than the 0z and 12z runs. The GFS is still nice and the storm set-up and radar still favors a lot of precip more south... don't fully buy the full northern trend here. Think DCA still gets a solid 5-6 inches out of the storm, which for me, would be fantastic. Now just need to get these temps down a few more degrees (!!!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Even though we are a few hours out from the event starting, the 6z models should still not be fully trusted --- they have less data, as usual, than the 0z and 12z runs. The GFS is still nice and the storm set-up and radar still favors a lot of precip more south... don't fully buy the full northern trend here. Think DCA still gets a sold 5-6 inches out of the storm, which for me, would be fantastic. Now just need to get these temps down a few more degrees (!!!). Per the mets who actually work on those models and post in this forum, that is literally untrue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 LWX DISCO Wonder if blizzard warnings will be in order?. Forecast cites frequent gusts to 40mph The low will pass by to our south today before rapidly intensifying tonight as it moves out to sea. Forcing from the surface low as well as the upper-level disturbance will cause precipitation to break out over the area today...spreading from west to east across the area this morning. Very cold air will filter in from the north during this time...causing the ptype to be snow across all locations. The combinations of high snow to liquid ratios...overrunning...and frontogenetical forcing will all line up over the area causing heavy snow to impact the region. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire area today through this evening. Snowfall accumulations around six to ten inches are expected with the highest amounts most likely in the Potomac Highlands as well as northern Maryland and northern Virginia. Locally higher snowfall totals are possible due to the banding nature of the precipitation. Drier air will move in tonight as the low pulls away from the area. Snow will end from west to east this evening...but it will turn out quite windy due to a strong pressure gradient between the deepening low and Arctic high pressure over the Midwest. Blowing and drifting snow will continue through tonight even after the snow ends. The northwest winds will usher in bitterly cold air...causing min temperatures to range from below zero in the mountains to the single digits elsewhere. Wind chill values will drop below zero tonight with the coldest spots in the mountains. A wind chill warning is in effect tonight for the Potomac Highlands and a Wind Chill Advisory is in effect elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Even though we are a few hours out from the event starting, the 6z models should still not be fully trusted --- they have less data, as usual, than the 0z and 12z runs. The GFS is still nice and the storm set-up and radar still favors a lot of precip more south... don't fully buy the full northern trend here. Think DCA still gets a solid 5-6 inches out of the storm, which for me, would be fantastic. Now just need to get these temps down a few more degrees (!!!). Huh? While they do have less data, they aren't significantly less reliable than other runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 For my area, it seems like we get a couple hours of lighter snow this AM, may not even accumulate because of temps and then our best snows fall mid to late afternoon when the vort passes. All the schools are closed.. ALL and we should be fine till then roads wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 let's do it all again next week http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_156_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=156&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Huh? While they do have less data, they aren't significantly less reliable than other runs. Interesting, always thought they were. Nice to be proven wrong though -- happy to learn! That said, still like GFS the last few runs and still encouraged by local NWS uping totals --- they are looking at things other than models and until it's jusy raining outside and not accumlating, I am going to be hopeful that we see a nice snowfall. I moved to DC in February of 2011, after all the bigs snows, and have yet to see a 2+ inch snow in Navy Yard (DC) --- so hoping for one today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 let's do it all again next week http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_156_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=156&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Is that a block ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Is that a block ? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=156ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_156_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=156ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_156_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Long range thread, so it doesn't get lost in here. Also, swiscaster, I think you need to re-visit the 1st amendment before the "is this America" stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Does anyone in SNE ever go through this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 GFS is a crush job...wettest run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 So even though it seems the NAM and Euro backed off a little, the GFS qpf seemed to have gone on the higher side of current forecasts alone. Got to love it! http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KDCA&model=gfs&time=2014012106&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I nearly spilled my coffee when I saw the GFS. What a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Looked at all 6z stuff and all systems go. Should be .4-6 for pretty much all of us with .35 worst case. Gfs is too broad and juiced imho. High res stuff hints at 2 precip maxes. N md as the overall highest as expected but another heavier stripe somewhere south and prob east of 95 but hard to say. Banding placement is still tbd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 What is it about the mason dixon line always getting the good stuff first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I dunno Bob gfs looks legit to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I will say..Radar dreams here..but the GFS is the only model that looked to get significant precip into ROA this early in the game. It looks like they have a big band right on their doorstep. Might be good for us downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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