ravensrule Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I don't like the northern trends via the ECMWF either...especially when supported by BOTH the RAP and parallel RAP trends, which have also been trending farther north with the .50" axis going from the 03Z-04Z-05Z runs. DCA is now closer to the .25" contour than .50" contour. Now you will have weenies heading to the ledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Now you will have weenies heading to the ledge. Either way we are good. Always thought northern MD/southern PA was the band zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Either way we are good. Always thought northern MD/southern PA was the band zone. True but after all Matt goes through i really want him to get a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Now you will have weenies heading to the ledge. Sorry...I've just seen this script way too many times before. It's not a stretch to get that best frontogenetic banding to set up *just* to our north, which would create a less-than-uniform pcpn profile north-south. In other words, folks in those fgen bands make out like a bandit, probably over .50" liquid equivalent, while the rest of us farther south would be lucky to get to .25-.40. Don't get me wrong, that's still a nice moderate event. It's just probably closer to the original 4-6/3-6" call than it is 5-9" (for DCA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 True but after all Matt goes through i really want him to get a nice storm. He needs to move. lol. DC is weather hell hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 RAP the past few hours have agreed with EURO.. This is for 20z tomorrow.. h5 heights in orange 850 temps in colored lines 700 vvel in solid color 700mb wind barbs thin white lines are SLP 2014012104z_RAP_Composite_h16.PNG im not worried about 20z.....that will all sink south...more worried about just overall QPF and temps...i think at this point we know the GFS is an outlier and the start is going to be delayed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Sorry...I've just seen this script way too many times before. It's not a stretch to get that best frontogenetic banding to set up *just* to our north, which would create a less-than-uniform pcpn profile north-south. In other words, folks in those fgen bands make out like a bandit, probably over .50" liquid equivalent, while the rest of us farther south would be lucky to get to .25-.40. Don't get me wrong, that's still a nice moderate event. It's just probably closer to the original 4-6/3-6" call than it is 5-9" (for DCA). I hope all these worries are unfounded tomorrow morning. Have a great night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Look at the SE part of CTP new map. 10-14" near MD line. Baltimore north in the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 RR is interesting in that the best forcing for the immediate metro is at the end of the run, 00z. Slow start, but slower evolution overall so that we get kind of wrapped into the storm late. But...not worth trusting the last panel of the RR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 HPC QPF map, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I don't like the northern trends via the ECMWF either...especially when supported by BOTH the RAP and parallel RAP trends, which have also been trending farther north with the .50" axis going from the 03Z-04Z-05Z runs. DCA is now closer to the .25" contour than .50" contour. It was one heck of a fun ride though we should have known better, especially with the trends this fall and winter. I am readjusting my expectations to a dusting to one inch, and not as cold tomorrow. variable cloudiness, temps near 32 all day then falling off at night as the low moves well northeast of Cape Cod. Cold and dry for the next 7 days, then mild and drenching rainfall. Rinse and repeat. We live in or near dca. When will we learn? The deadskins lose and break our hearts. The models lead us on then move the snow event well north only about 9 to 14 hours out from the event. We're DCers. We are destined to suffer broken hearts. It is what it is. EDIT: My phone forecast on weatherbug just upped the forecast amts of snow to 6 to 10 inches. Don't they ever look at the latest model runs? South Pennsylvania will get 6 to 10 inches. Eastern Prince William, where I reside, will get perhaps an inch of snow, and I'll be satisfied. I know my climo, and I understand this winter's trends. This winter's trends are north. This means snow will miss me to the north and I will see a car topping to an inch. NWS is playing catch up again ha ha ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NAM is north. FDK NW gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 06Z Nam is coming in closer to the 00Z ECMWF. Best frontogenetic banding and betters UVVs in the dendritic growth zone are north of DCA...basically where the first "finger" frontogenetic band is setting up early this AM (along the Mason-Dixon line). This is NOT to suggest we're out of at least moderate accums. Not at all. However, as we've seen before, if the fgen snow bands set up several hours earlier farther north, we may have to wait a while longer down in DCA-land before we see good accumulation rates with the pivoting deformation axis. The net result is X hours less of really good snowfall rates. This is probably why both the NAM and EC are coming in right at .38-.40" for DCA (both the 00Z EC and 06Z NAM are remarkably consistent now...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 06Z Nam is coming in closer to the 00Z ECMWF. Best frontogenetic banding and betters UVVs in the dendritic growth zone are north of DCA...basically where the first "finger" frontogenetic band is setting up early this AM (along the Mason-Dixon line). This is NOT to suggest we're out of at least moderate accums. Not at all. However, as we've seen before, if the fgen snow bands set up several hours earlier farther north, we may have to wait a while longer down in DCA-land before we see good accumulation rates with the pivoting deformation axis. The net result is X hours less of really good snowfall rates. This is probably why both the NAM and EC are coming in right at .38-.40" for DCA (both the 00Z EC and 06Z NAM are remarkably consistent now...) Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 06Z Nam is coming in closer to the 00Z ECMWF. Best frontogenetic banding and betters UVVs in the dendritic growth zone are north of DCA...basically where the first "finger" frontogenetic band is setting up early this AM (along the Mason-Dixon line). This is NOT to suggest we're out of at least moderate accums. Not at all. However, as we've seen before, if the fgen snow bands set up several hours earlier farther north, we may have to wait a while longer down in DCA-land before we see good accumulation rates with the pivoting deformation axis. The net result is X hours less of really good snowfall rates. This is probably why both the NAM and EC are coming in right at .38-.40" for DCA (both the 00Z EC and 06Z NAM are remarkably consistent now...) Time-sensitive http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Also, the RAP as illustrated above shows DCA at .3 and MBY at .2 with respect to qpf. My estimates of an inch of snow may be right on target, although I think that DCA might manage 3-4 inches out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yikes. Hmm, for some reason, what I'm seeing with the 07Z RAP here at work is a little wetter, at least the 12hr amounts from 13-01Z. DCA still around .40-.45 with the .50" not far to the N-NW. Yes, continuing the disturbing trend, but not enough to ensue a weenie suicide watch. My thinking is that at least for the city, if these short term trends come to fruition, amounts are probably going to verify closer to the original 3-5/4-6" forecast than the current 6-8". Still a good "moderate" event nonetheless.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hmm, for some reason, what I'm seeing with the 07Z RAP here at work is a little wetter, at least the 12hr amounts from 13-01Z. DCA still around .40-.45 with the .50" not far to the N-NW. Yes, continuing the disturbing trend, but not enough to ensue a weenie suicide watch. My thinking is that at least for the city, if these short term trends come to fruition, amounts are probably going to verify closer to the original 3-5/4-6" forecast than the current 6-8". Still a good "moderate" event nonetheless.. Ya looks like winners will be NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Can anyone explain the SREF's and why they appear to suck bad enough to give Dulles what looks like a 14" mean? ETA: It looks like there are 11 members higher than that too. Not some rogue member at 50" either like usual. Almost all of the higher members are clustered between 12" and 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Can anyone explain the SREF's and why they appear to suck bad enough to give Dulles what looks like a 14" mean? ETA: It looks like there are 11 members higher than that too. Not some rogue member at 50" either like usual. Almost all of the higher members are clustered between 12" and 18". Can you post? Having issues on my phone getting data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 GFS looks to hold serve with high precip amounts across LWX. It looks off though..too juiced and quick. I'd be happy for 3" down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 GFS saves the day and looks pretty good with temps too...has the freezing line just north of DC at 3 am and just through at 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I dont comprehend why the latest AFD out of LWX insists that northern Virginia will get 6 to 10 inches of snow. I've seen the latest model runs. It is obvious that the heaviest snows are farther north, if not in Pennsylvania, then in northern Maryland. Maybe the mets at the NWS are asleep. When I wake up in about 6 hours I expect to see cloudy skies with a winter weather advisory - or no advisory at all - with an inch of snow expected for my back yard. Someone really needs to politely enlighten these renowned NWS mets about the latest model runs. It's farther north. We're not getting 6 to 10 inches in N VA. Pennsylvania and N MD will. I'm not knocking the mets, I respect them, but the models are farther north which means we will be spared all the heavy snow, I can work out this afternoon and Baltimore can spin their tires instead of northern Virginians. Both the NWS site and my phone's weather center are all honking about heavy snow for N VA. I don't get it, I've seen the model runs. North trend wins, if I am lucky enough to get a dusting, I'll be happy. Just give me my Arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Dont know why, but I feel tons better after seeing the 6z GFS. Look...just 36 hours, we all were off the chain thrilled with 0.25. Then we started rolling lucky and increasing with every run after that. Even if we "only" got 0.4, were looking good for 4 to 6. I'd love 6 to 10, but at the same time, we need to realize there's a very real probability that York PA is going to get jackpotted. We'll still probably get our biggest snowfall in 3 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The GFS 6z looks pretty juiced to me so don't think the low end of that is out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Dont know why, but I feel tons better after seeing the 6z GFS. Look...just 36 hours, we all were off the chain thrilled with 0.25. Then we started rolling lucky and increasing with every run after that. Even if we "only" got 0.4, were looking good for 4 to 6. I'd love 6 to 10, but at the same time, we need to realize there's a very real probability that York PA is going to get jackpotted. We'll still probably get our biggest snowfall in 3 years The GFS was a big run for your crew. I feel like Baltimore might be safe for 6 at this point. The north trend is always a worrisome one, but I feel its a bit off as the precip max moves SE when the bands begin to rotate through. At that point, everyone should be getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 GFS does look really good, Randy. I was almost afraid to look. Purples for all. Let's hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 GFS does look really good, Randy. I was almost afraid to look. Purples for all. Let's hope. The GFS is a foot for you, its an insane run, best of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The 06Z GFS goes ape-Sh!t with the pcpn, as in between .50 and .75 for the DMV. However, I notice that a good chunk of that occurs between 12-18Z...as in .25"-.50" with the half inch contour over FDK and Westminster. In other words, we're gonna find out between now and 18Z whether or not the GFS is overly robust.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Just some 6z QPF data for the GFS DCA: .69 BWI: .75 MTN: .77 DMW (Westminster): .85 FDK: .79 JYO: .85 CHO: .56 RIC: .24OKV: .87 HGR: .70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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