snow. Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 If you put them side by side you might laugh a little at the discussion here the last 10 min. But such is life when dictated by 0.10" liquid. it is north and the driest model and it is 40 degrees...we will still get snow...and perhaps a lot, but there should be caution against this general idea that we would be getting +SN and 23 degrees at 8am...I could easily see this being a 2-4" event for DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Not worried about liquid. Temps are the issue right now. Maybe for your area but where i live temps will not be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Not really sure what the freaking out is about. Smh. 4-8 DC to BWI and 6-10 north of BWI seems like a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Since i am 25-30 miles north of there i should be close to .50 that is great for the lowest QPF of any model. A model that is still playing catch up to the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 so 12z guidance for DC NAM - 0.47" GFS - 0.41" Euro - 0.46" RGEM - ~0.45" UKIE - ~0.45" GGEM - ~0.40" euro dropped .04 zwyts for DCA. It was really wet at 12z and bone dry at 00z:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 we need Wes here to tell us its a good vort and to go with the GFS model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Since i am 25-30 miles north of there i should be close to .50 that is great for the lowest QPF of any model. Westminster is exactly .50. So you're probably close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I hate this place sometimes. I'm going to bed. people got angry at me too on 1/22/05, 12/26/10, 3/6/13 and 12/10/13....screw "optimism"...optimism has gotten me 0.75" total in my last 2 warned events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 LWX has Frederick now 7-11" tomorrow. How much snow has that place had already... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 so 12z guidance for DC NAM - 0.47" GFS - 0.41" Euro - 0.46" RGEM - ~0.45" UKIE - ~0.45" GGEM - ~0.40" euro dropped .04 zwyts for DCA. It was really wet at 12z and bone dry at 00z:) I'm more concerned about north and temps..Potomac Mills has like 0.04" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 LWX has Frederick now 7-11" tomorrow. How much snow has that place had already... lol I think they have like 22" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I think they have like 22" so far. Dang more than me up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 it is north and the driest model and it is 40 degrees...we will still get snow...and perhaps a lot, but there should be caution against this general idea that we would be getting +SN and 23 degrees at 8am...I could easily see this being a 2-4" event for DC properHey just remember you said the brief downsloping high wasn't concerning earlier haha. I can see this "busting" for us with no problem. If if does I will probably stick to svr forecasting going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 it is north and the driest model and it is 40 degrees...we will still get snow...and perhaps a lot, but there should be caution against this general idea that we would be getting +SN and 23 degrees at 8am...I could easily see this being a 2-4" event for DC proper 2-4 would be my call. i see no reason after the last few years to predict much more than that from a redeveloping clipper with very little if any GOM influence. that said, 2-4 and breaking the streak would still be a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This isn't one of those deals where temps hover between 31.5 and 33.7 for the duration, with mediocre 850s. Temps will crash through the day, and 850s are of no concern whatsoever. Rolling out the fainting couchs over temps is a bit much IMO. If the QPF and vort track holds from the 0z suite, losing an hour or two to temps on the front end will end up as no BFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 people got angry at me too on 1/22/05, 12/26/10, 3/6/13 and 12/10/13....screw "optimism"...optimism has gotten me 0.75" total in my last 2 warned events. Optimism here is a .7 foot deep dump. .4+ for all is realistic and has been for a lot of runs. Temps might be scary but they won't last long with this setup. No comparison to boxing day and last march. Much different animal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Sorry to interrupt with the OT. Everyone is asleep. I saw Euro is north? North for SNE too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 If i lived in Downtown DC i would never sleep because of Matt, way to many things to worry about there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OleFalls Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I am down to 34F now. So after sitting on 39/40 for hours, I lost 6F in the last 50 minutes. Starting to have detectable wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 just go with the GFS. No reason for GFS to be wrong 6 hours before the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Down to 34 here. Rate picking up. About -1/hr rate now. Was .5/hr earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Low already 1008mb and east of where it was modeled at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hey just remember you said the brief downsloping high wasn't concerning earlier haha. I can see this "busting" for us with no problem. If if does I will probably stick to svr forecasting going forward. i was being willfully ignorant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Low already 1008mb and east of where it was modeled at this time. Looks due east to me, but It could just be late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 i was being willfully ignorant I really hope this works out for you or you will probably have to have a 3rd screen name in a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 If i lived in Downtown DC i would never sleep because of Matt, way to many things to worry about there. I'm looking at the HRRR for hope, since when did it run every 3 hours? Would be nice to have hourly updates. Here is something for Ian. Low-topped convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'm more concerned about north and temps..Potomac Mills has like 0.04" I'm 20miles NW outside Philly and was 35.8 at 11pm, now 32.1 and when the colder air starts filtering in the temps drop pretty quick. (down to 31.9 in the time I wrote this, keep refreshing wundergroud) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I don't like the northern trends via the ECMWF either...especially when supported by BOTH the RAP and parallel RAP trends, which have also been trending farther north with the .50" axis going from the 03Z-04Z-05Z runs. DCA is now closer to the .25" contour than .50" contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 RAP the past few hours have agreed with EURO.. This is for 20z tomorrow.. h5 heights in orange 850 temps in colored lines 700 vvel in solid color 700mb wind barbs thin white lines are SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I don't like the northern trends via the ECMWF either...especially when supported by BOTH the RAP and parallel RAP trends, which have also been trending farther north with the .50" axis going from the 03Z-04Z-05Z runs. DCA is now closer to the .25" contour than .50" contour. North trend almost always wins. When I seen post of people saying Richmond was going to get a lot of snow yesterday, I was like that never happens... it will come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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