ravensrule Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 what if you take out all the members? If only we could take 1 member out of AMWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Woah 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 15z SREFs PLUMES: KIAD: When removing the top 3 and bottom 3 plumes, the mean is 12.9". Highest plume is 22.5" and lowest is 0.7" KDCA: When removing the top 3 and bottom 3 plumes, the mean is 12.5". Highest plume is 23.2" and lowest is 0.3" KBWI: When removing the top 3 and bottom 3 plumes, the mean is 11.9". Highest plume is 22.5" and lowest is 1.5" I believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 it's a monster Over 0.5" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 NAM is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Every model or numerical model lacks unassailability. Except for the Euro, which fortunately has been rock solid consistent on this system for the last 8 runs. People like to look at data points, doesn't mean they will happen verbatim. Yea but those 2 specifically always run way to wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Over 0.5" QPF lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Here's what I'm taking from this: whether or not you think the SREF is overly robust, the bottom line is the trend from what Yoda has been posting is clearly UP. Gethca popcorn ready! :-) 15z SREFs PLUMES: KIAD: When removing the top 3 and bottom 3 plumes, the mean is 12.9". Highest plume is 22.5" and lowest is 0.7" KDCA: When removing the top 3 and bottom 3 plumes, the mean is 12.5". Highest plume is 23.2" and lowest is 0.3" KBWI: When removing the top 3 and bottom 3 plumes, the mean is 11.9". Highest plume is 22.5" and lowest is 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 NAM is tucking!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 lock it up! 1"/hr in early afternoon with temp in the mid-20s. Will take that any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 just your run of the mill 14 hours of snow on the NAM, nbd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Berk's map is actually pretty good imo https://twitter.com/JustinWeather/status/425355624239493121 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 what if you take out all the members? sorry.....Members Only (I love the 80's!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Berk's map is actually pretty good imo https://twitter.com/JustinWeather/status/425355624239493121 Yeah. Though wouldn't be surprised if zones are 50 miles south depending in how far S vort digs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Been lurking and reading most of the day. Great stuff, these trends in the past day have been remarkable! One thing in particular that strikes me, and which a couple of people mentioned, is the model consistency on the overall evolution of this system and the QPF amounts. That's very good to see. This shouldn't be the March 5-6 storm all over again where things look great from a couple of model runs, then we have a huge bust; there was a lot more uncertainty going into that one as I recall. Similarly, it should not be like the "second wave" storm back around December 10 which busted very low for most people and was very short lived (never really got going). I'm optimistic about tomorrow, despite the near 60 degree temperatures today. That Arctic front should be moving through and cool things off plenty before the snow starts tomorrow morning. It's been awhile since we had a truly "cold" storm like this is shaping up to be. I think people are going to be shocked as it gets very cold by late day tomorrow, after being outside today. Here's hoping I can give the Canon Rebel a nice workout tomorrow with some great snow pix!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_036.gif 84-96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Berk's map is actually pretty good imo https://twitter.com/JustinWeather/status/425355624239493121 It is pretty good. Like seeing the nam still keeping us wet/snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The NAM is just an absolute DC/BWI area wide bullseye. We are all getting at least 5 inches from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It is pretty good. Like seeing the nam still keeping us wet/snowy. those junker models are on a roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Berk's map is actually pretty good imo https://twitter.com/JustinWeather/status/425355624239493121 Nice, lock it up. I don't need any more trending i am not greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hi-Res we are ripping by 10-11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nice band of .5"+ on the NAM. Up I-81 from CHO, across I-66, then up I-95 from DC to NYC. Magical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 84-96? I don't follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 NAM QPF through 1AM Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 DCA: 5.6 BWI: 8.3 IAD: 8.4 MRG: 7.9 OKV: 9.3 PHI: 8.8 NYC: 7.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18Z NAM 24h QPF 03Z 1/21 to 03Z 1/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hi-Res we are ripping by 10-11am 1pm on hi-res NAM DC is 1/8 - 1/4mi ++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I don't follow I was joking about the map and the fact it goes up to 120" and that the colors look like that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wonder if we'll get some blizzard warnings for DE coast, NJ coast etc. Maybe even the bay counties but probably mainly near shore where the best odds are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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