nj2va Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I know I am being irrational, but I have been traumatized too many times..I need ground truth...I am starting to recall some storms where the NAM was too far north and it is making me feel better....I want to see a 0.5" stripe over Rocky mount NC to feel safe This made me laugh. I know why DC worries since we've been screwed so many times but just wait out the rest of the 0z models. It's going to snow...more than we've seen in the past 3 years (maybe combined). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Exactly what I was thinking, snow. We'll get a decent little snowfall, but knowing we missed out on 7 more inches just to our north and east wil give it a sour taste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 see ya at 12:45 Nah. I'm done after the gfs. Had a big weekend and beat tired. I haven't been anxious since yesterday afternoon. Were all getting 4"+ near the cities. Let the jackpots sort themselves out at nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 For those worried about the N trend the key thing to look for will be the narrow finger of precip that develops over the OH valley starting around 0700 (according to hires NAM). Those areas will get a few bonus hours of snow before everyone else which will probably be worth 1-3 extra inches. Based on all the other classic rules (vort track, 850 low track) I don't think the bust potential is too bad until you get well south of DC...but storms always find new ways to screw us here so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 see ya at 12:45 Chill, a big talker but he'll hang in. I'll make the GFS but the Euro is way too late. I suspect I'll be up tomorrow early even though I'm already tired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Let's storm mode this piece. The crazies and the weirds are coming out with the worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 There really is not much of a north shift. 18z and 0z NAM are almost identical. HiRES NAM looks sweet. SREFs are juiced. Maybe folks down in central VA should be worried as less qpf there last few runs. But for N VA, MD, DE, SNJ this is going to be a nice storm. I think this is the case too. Areas in Northern Va and Maryland are not going to have to worry about the precipitation amounts. The Nam cut back on areas mainly along 64 and south west from Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I know I am being irrational, but I have been traumatized too many times..I need ground truth...I am starting to recall some storms where the NAM was too far north and it is making me feel better....I want to see a 0.5" stripe over Rocky mount NC to feel safe Didn't 09-10 sort of end the north trend curse for us...it seems like most of our more recent screw jobs were for other reasons. Of course you haver the data, and I'm just relying on memory I think we are all going to enjoy a magic carpet ride tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hopefully this will resolve quickly once the winds shift to NE after 3am. Edit: Should have used 2z for the compare. Still off by 7f. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hopefully this will resolve quickly once the winds shift to NE after 3am. It very much will. Temps are the least of our worries ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'm happy I am going to see some snow and cold temps. However, I am really not sure what to think about amounts until tomorrow night at 1130pm. By then I will have snow on the ground, or the storm will have gone so far north that it will be cold and cloudy with no snow, or just a dusting. Each season, each year has a sweet spot. In 2012-2013 it was south Virginia. They got to enjoy two storms that went south of us and dumped 3-5 inches of snow. This year it is Maryland. Climo really indicates they should get a lot of snow every year, as does elevation. Given the tendency of snows to favor north and west of DCA this winter, I would not at all be surprised to see this trend north. I expect a car topping to perhaps an inch of snow by tomorrow night. At least it will be refreshingly chilly, with highs in the 20s all week. I really dont mind a brown landscape all winter, as long as it is serious vodka cold. And breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hopefully this will resolve quickly once the winds shift to NE after 3am. I'm not sure why you are worried. Heck I live in Calvert county and already am 37.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Exactly what I was thinking, snow. We'll get a decent little snowfall, but knowing we missed out on 7 more inches just to our north and east wil give it a sour taste. Plz, you will be on the higher end of accum and you know it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 One thing that I will mention again (mainly because it seems to be getting overlook b/c of the snow) is that the issues with travel, etc are not going to end with the snow. Winds will still be up blowing around the fresh powder and dropping wind chills. Tomorrow night is going to brutal with a good chance of wind chill products coming out at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It very much will. Temps are the least of our worries ATTM. Yeah I compared 5z instead of 2z so I edited the post. Not as bad as I thought, just unhappy that it could have been a serious marginal event that it got screwed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hope you all do well, this storm sucks down here. Hoping for 2-3 inches, and C to 1 may be final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Thank god it has slowed down some.... all of this nail biting over slight shifts is ridiculous unless you happen to be on the absolute fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'm starting to wonder if the Caps game tomorrow is in jeopardy for postponement. 6 inches isn't a pile, but enough to grind the city to a halt. It looks pretty good that DC proper will get that. Always odd to cancel a hockey game for snow, but this might be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Updated from Mount Holly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Chill, a big talker but he'll hang in. I'll make the GFS but the Euro is way too late. I suspect I'll be up tomorrow early even though I'm already tired. i'm tired too and was planning on sleep right after GFS...but we'll see Tomorrow the big sweat will be the wait...Trenton will be getting +SN and me and you wont have seen a flake yet......I dont care how others do...I just want my 3-5".....only thing that will really bum me out is a complete bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 If anyone ought to be nail biting it's me down here in SBY. But I'm alright, I'll take anything I can get. The timing already means I'm not getting off work either tomorrow or the following day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 RGEM anyone? Wxbell not updated yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cng885 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Anyone got the new qpf for central va in the new nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 One thing that I will mention again (mainly because it seems to be getting overlook b/c of the snow) is that the issues with travel, etc are not going to end with the snow. Winds will still be up blowing around the fresh powder and dropping wind chills. Tomorrow night is going to brutal with a good chance of wind chill products coming out at some point. good...I want the storm to be as crippling and disruptive as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I wonder how many people get stranded at work tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 RGEM anyone? Wxbell not updated yet. Few more minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Babybee2010 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I live in Harford County MD, north of Baltimore City. How much snow do you see for my area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Few more minutes Absolute crushing blow for DC up to Baltimore. 999 over ORF down to 997 25 E of OXB (OCMD) at hr 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I live in Harford County MD, north of Baltimore City. How much snow do you see for my area? 71 Centimeters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I live in Harford County MD, north of Baltimore City. How much snow do you see for my area? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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