Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

1/21 Redeveloping Clipper Storm


DDweatherman

Recommended Posts

I know I am being irrational, but I have been traumatized too many times..I need ground truth...I am starting to recall some storms where the NAM was too far north and it is making me feel better....I want to see a 0.5" stripe over Rocky mount NC to feel safe

 

This made me laugh.  I know why DC worries since we've been screwed so many times but just wait out the rest of the 0z models.  It's going to snow...more than we've seen in the past 3 years (maybe combined).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

For those worried about the N trend the key thing to look for will be the narrow finger of precip that develops over the OH valley starting around 0700 (according to hires NAM). Those areas will get a few bonus hours of snow before everyone else which will probably be worth 1-3 extra inches. Based on all the other classic rules (vort track, 850 low track) I don't think the bust potential is too bad until you get well south of DC...but storms always find new ways to screw us here so we'll see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There really is not much of a north shift. 18z and 0z NAM are almost identical. HiRES NAM looks sweet. SREFs are juiced. Maybe folks down in central VA should be worried as less qpf there last few runs. But for  N VA, MD, DE,  SNJ this is going to be a nice storm.

 

 

I think this is the case too.     Areas in Northern Va and Maryland are not going to have to worry about the precipitation amounts.     The Nam cut back on areas mainly along 64 and south west from Richmond.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know I am being irrational, but I have been traumatized too many times..I need ground truth...I am starting to recall some storms where the NAM was too far north and it is making me feel better....I want to see a 0.5" stripe over Rocky mount NC to feel safe

Didn't 09-10 sort of end the north trend curse for us...it seems like most of our more recent screw jobs were for other reasons. Of course you haver the data, and I'm just relying on memory :)   I think we are all going to enjoy a magic carpet ride tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm happy I am going to see some snow and cold temps.

 

However, I am really not sure what to think about amounts until tomorrow night at 1130pm. By then I will have snow on the ground, or the storm will have gone so far north that it will be cold and cloudy with no snow, or just a dusting.

 

Each season, each year has a sweet spot. 

 

In 2012-2013 it was south Virginia. They got to enjoy two storms that went south of us and dumped 3-5 inches of snow.

 

This year it is Maryland. Climo really indicates they should get a lot of snow every year, as does elevation.

 

Given the tendency of snows to favor north and west of DCA this winter, I would not at all be surprised to see this trend north.

 

I expect a car topping to perhaps an inch of snow by tomorrow night. At least it will be refreshingly chilly, with highs in the 20s all week. I really dont mind a brown landscape all winter, as long as it is serious vodka cold. And breezy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing that I will mention again (mainly because it seems to be getting overlook b/c of the snow) is that the issues with travel, etc are not going to end with the snow.  Winds will still be up blowing around the fresh powder and dropping wind chills.  Tomorrow night is going to brutal with a good chance of wind chill products coming out at some point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chill, a big talker but he'll hang in.    I'll make the GFS but the Euro is way too late.  I suspect I'll be up tomorrow early even though I'm already tired.  

 

i'm tired too and was planning on sleep right after GFS...but we'll see

 

Tomorrow the big sweat will be the wait...Trenton will be getting +SN and me and you wont have seen a flake yet......I dont care how others do...I just want my 3-5".....only thing that will really bum me out is a complete bust

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing that I will mention again (mainly because it seems to be getting overlook b/c of the snow) is that the issues with travel, etc are not going to end with the snow.  Winds will still be up blowing around the fresh powder and dropping wind chills.  Tomorrow night is going to brutal with a good chance of wind chill products coming out at some point.

 

good...I want the storm to be as crippling and disruptive as possible

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...