Swiscaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Verbatim, this is still a decent hit, but we are way too close to those light greens and the trend is not our friend. These "redevelopers/strengtheners/transfers" always happen too late and at the last second, everything shifts north and east. It's already happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 So the vort goes 75 miles south and the precip shield jumps north?...As much as I dislike the NAM when it screws me it is usually 100% right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 We aren't getting screwed by the NAM, we get 7" of snow... The trend is worrying but don't jump off of a cliff yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Verbatim, this is still a decent hit, but we are way too close to those light greens and the trend is not our friend. These "redevelopers/strengtheners/transfers" always happen too late and at the last second, everything shifts north and east. It's already happening. There's always one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I told Jason I would, so yes. i told myself I wouldnt stay up for the euro....now I'll probably stay up for the 6z NAM so I can see the max precip stripe over Wilkes-Barre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 so the NAM went North and then it went south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 We aren't getting screwed by the NAM, we get 7" of snow... The trend is worrying but don't jump off of a cliff yet. Calling it a trend would imply that it is a series of changes. It's one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I never expected to be in the jackpot so I'll take my 6-8 and be happy. I'm huggin the rgem unless it's worse than the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Calling it a trend would imply that it is a series of changes. It's one run. Thank you, I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Heavy snow potential/banding across NOVA/MD is high. Someone could score big on this one (double digits). get_orig_img.gif I'm right in the middle of that band potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Verbatim, this is still a decent hit, but we are way too close to those light greens and the trend is not our friend. These "redevelopers/strengtheners/transfers" always happen too late and at the last second, everything shifts north and east. It's already happening. yup we are still going to get snow, but we will get the dummy end of the good swath and get 3.5" on 3/4 mi viz while people in Lancaster are in whiteout death bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Verbatim, this is still a decent hit, but we are way too close to those light greens and the trend is not our friend. These "redevelopers/strengtheners/transfers" always happen too late and at the last second, everything shifts north and east. It's already happening. Wes isn't worried so that should calm the fear...until the GFS comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 If u look at sim radar and the 3 hr precip maps it doesn't look as precarious, maybe we end up with 3-5 instead of 5-7+ but with the wind and cold temps it'll still be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I only want as much as can be swept with a broom, no more. LOL, if that's all you wanted you wouldn't be here.. This is an example of why we belong nowhere this season. PA sub forum is fringed and Harrisburg is under a WAA, while our area could get into double digits. We have an elevation micro climo where we cash in on marginal events and coastal storms so that buys us no friends north in sharp a cutoff like this, and south where temps are an issue for small to moderate events. CONGRATS TO DC/NOVA, YOU DESERVE EVERY FLAKE!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 FWIW I meant the trend over the past couple runs moving north, not just the new suite. Either way not concerned, 6 inches is a great number, like Bob said never really expected the double-digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Snowing at 15 degrees is gonna be awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 If u look at sim radar and the 3 hr precip maps it doesn't look as precarious, maybe we end up with 3-5 instead of 5-7+ but with the wind and cold temps it'll still be good huge difference between 3-5 and 5-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 i told myself I wouldnt stay up for the euro....now I'll probably stay up for the 6z NAM so I can see the max precip stripe over Wilkes-Barre Matt, the vort track looked good on the Jan 2 storm and the nam had too much of a dry slot with the storm. That vort track is a really good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The server is going to crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Snowing at 15 degrees is gonna be awesome your icon says 43 degrees and we nearly got dry slotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 FWIW I meant the trend over the past couple runs moving north, not just the new suite. Either way not concerned, 6 inches is a great number, like Bob said never really expected the double-digits. I'm not worried about the run...the run is a 7" run.....Im worried about the precip shield..then again it is the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Why is the nam suddenly gospel? WTH is going on in here? I enjoyed my afternoon away from models. I might go to bed now and be well rested for rakage tomorrow. F the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 So the vort goes 75 miles south and the precip shield jumps north?...As much as I dislike the NAM when it screws me it is usually 100% right It's either convective feedback or an initialization error. The vort ends up in pretty much exactly the same spot after the initial deviation. This largely comes down to very heavy debate over liquid numbers that are within an acceptable error for non weirdos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 You guys are depressing as ****. lol. Gonna make the GFS, take my 6 inches, and go before we whine over the northern movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Matt, the vort track looked good on the Jan 2 storm and the nam had too much of a dry slot with the storm. That vort track is a really good one. I know I am being irrational, but I have been traumatized too many times..I need ground truth...I am starting to recall some storms where the NAM was too far north and it is making me feel better....I want to see a 0.5" stripe over Rocky mount NC to feel safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Why is the nam suddenly gospel? WTH is going on in here? I enjoyed my afternoon away from models. I might go to bed now and be well rested for rakage tomorrow. F the nam enthusiasm has gotten me 13" in the last 17 events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 your icon says 43 degrees and we nearly got dry slotted 19 minutes until pill time....don't forget to take them this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Why is the nam suddenly gospel? WTH is going on in here? I enjoyed my afternoon away from models. I might go to bed now and be well rested for rakage tomorrow. F the nam see ya at 12:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 There really is not much of a north shift. 18z and 0z NAM are almost identical. HiRES NAM looks sweet. SREFs are juiced. Maybe folks down in central VA should be worried as less qpf there last few runs. But for N VA, MD, DE, SNJ this is going to be a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 LOL, if that's all you wanted you wouldn't be here.. This is an example of why we belong nowhere this season. PA sub forum is fringed and Harrisburg is under a WAA, while our area could get into double digits. We have an elevation micro climo where we cash in on marginal events and coastal storms so that buys us no friends north in sharp a cutoff like this, and south where temps are an issue for small to moderate events. CONGRATS TO DC/NOVA, YOU DESERVE EVERY FLAKE!. It has been an usual winter, well err, sort of. The last few years many of the bigger storms were down south and the "usually snowier NW burbs, e.g.. us, were getting slighted, fringed,whatever you want to call it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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