nj2va Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'd guess there are a few showing crazy high numbers, 25+. Yeah, probably a few showing crazy snow totals but good to see the QPF spread is down to 0.1 from 0.25+ yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Can I have the link to these text outputs? http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kdca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Those ratios are actually quite high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 clskinsfan, on 20 Jan 2014 - 2:42 PM, said:http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kdca Bookmarked. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Those ratios are actually quite high. Yes they are. But the total QPF numbers are useful. Also look how the temps fall throughout the entire event. Most of us will be in single digits once the storm ends. This snow is sticking around for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbsisson Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I've been a long time lurker and have learned a lot from the folks in this forum. I recently moved to a great area in Madison County Virginia on the east slope of the Blue Ridge. I have always wondered if the east slope ever sees any upslope effect on precip. In a situation like tomorrow's storm. The low level flow should be from the north and northwest so probably not in this case. Is there ever a situation where this could happen? Thanks to anyone who might be be able to enlighten me about this. I appreciate it. I waited to make my first post on a day when everyone is in a good mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 15z SREF mean for DCA is 0.58" with a min of 0.15" and max of 0.89". Taking away the top 3 and bottom 3, the mean is 0.57". ETA: Fixed the totals a bit. I was including amounts from another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yeah, probably a few showing crazy snow totals but good to see the QPF spread is down to 0.1 from 0.25+ yesterday. And here are the 15z plumes for IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 15z SREF mean for DCA is 0.59" with a min of 0.15" and max of 0.93". Taking away the top 3 and bottom 3, the mean remains 0.59". What about for IAD.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Sref plume for dca?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 ARW throwing out 24 inches for IAD..... preposterous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Sref plume for dca?? Similar to IAD... Not much diff at all, although concerned about dry slot and heat island in Alexandria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 ARW throwing out 24 inches for IAD..... preposterous It injected heroin before running, toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 From ORH: SREFs are almost useless with those ARW members skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 there is always a one dumb NAM run right before a storm....its usally 18z. Lets see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm just going to keep posting random 700 maps because they make me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 From ORH: Even after removing every ARW member, DCA mean is 0.51. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hot damn, nearly 1"/hr at 18z tomorrow on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Even after removing every ARW member, DCA mean is 0.51. Impressive. What about if you take out the NMM's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 congrats coastal areas gfs_ptype_slp_ma_31.png and.. north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 ARW throwing out 24 inches for IAD..... preposterous ARW crazy wet bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 there is always a one dumb NAM run right before a storm....its usally 18z. Lets see what happens it's fine...it is a direct crushing hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 15z SREFs PLUMES: KIAD: When removing the top 3 and bottom 3 plumes, the mean is 12.9". Highest plume is 22.5" and lowest is 0.7" KDCA: When removing the top 3 and bottom 3 plumes, the mean is 12.5". Highest plume is 23.2" and lowest is 0.3" KBWI: When removing the top 3 and bottom 3 plumes, the mean is 11.9". Highest plume is 22.5" and lowest is 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What about if you take out the NMM's. 0.41 mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 0.41 mean what if you take out all the members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If I only I could figure out how to title threads better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I can't remember SREF plumes not sucking. Any run that's showing over 12" should be tossed in the trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What about if you take out the NMM's. Every model or numerical model lacks unassailability. Except for the Euro, which fortunately has been rock solid consistent on this system for the last 8 runs. People like to look at data points, doesn't mean they will happen verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 0.41 mean That is probably the realistic mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 there is always a one dumb NAM run right before a storm....its usally 18z. Lets see what happens it's fine...it is a direct crushing hit it's a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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