PhineasC Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Lot of optimism in here. Doesn't DC often get screwed by northern stream systems and storms where we rely on some sort of redevelopment nearby/overhead? We have both here. I like the model consensus, but I am still cautious. My forecast is for spotty sleet in Centreville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Talk about bad luck. Missed by one letter. #janus Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Was thinking 4-8" was a good range for most everyone in the LWX CWA, but I'd lean toward 5-10" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Thunder man, I guess but anyone with a piece of toilet paper that says "Meteorologist" can make a decent probability forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Final forecast IMBY: 7.3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 OK, thanks, Bob Chill. I just got back into town and have not been following closely to know the full set-up. But still, these QPFs are all based on a redevelopment, right? If it doesn't happen exactly as models depict, the totals could be a less. When will we know whether the redevelopment is happening as modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 6-8" west alexandria Final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Come and join the snowfall forecasting contest -- Enter your forecast here until 10:30pm tonite. All the scoring and stats are done for you. http://www.newx-forecasts.com/index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 OK, thanks, Bob Chill. I just got back into town and have not been following closely to know the full set-up. But still, these QPFs are all based on a redevelopment, right? If it doesn't happen exactly as models depict, the totals could be a less. When will we know whether the redevelopment is happening as modeled? Think of it more as intensification vs redevelopment. It's only going to gain strength as it turns the corner and rides the coast. We have complete model consensus from the big dogs to the science fair projects. If you can find a hole in guidance that brings cause for concern let me kno. Imo- were bulletproof for a widespread 4+ anywhere near the cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 6-8" west alexandria Final call I'll share that with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Going for 8-11'' IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Phin, there's always "ice" at my house, according to biggerboat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Come and join the snowfall forecasting contest -- Enter your forecast here until 10:30pm tonite. All the scoring and stats are down for you. http://www.newx-forecasts.com/index.htm wow, this sounds really cool! Thanks for sharing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 OK, someone take "redeveloper" out of the thread title then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I much prefer probability forecasts. They allow the end user to see the amount of uncertainty that exists and plan accordingly. It also allows for better long term forecasts I think as well ... forecasters do not get hung up on 2-4 vs 3-6, etc. My work colleagues (all science/engineering majors) actually really liked the probability graphics on the LWX winter page. I was showing it to them on January 2nd, and they were surprised to see a >30% chance of 4"+ totals for Montgomery County, MD. What verified in the county was 3-6", with most of the county getting 4-5". They remarked that knowing the probabilities made them have a better sense of what was about to transpire that evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Why do people feel the need to make a "call"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Why do people feel the need to make a "call"? Everyone, whether they admit it or not, has an inherent love of gambling. It's just one form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Why do people feel the need to make a "call"? What would you like to discuss? Please enlighten us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mama2Many Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Quick question. Is there a page that lists all the abbreviations you guys use? Like IMBY, ect..... I am trying to learn more about the weather so I spend a lot of time stalking here but I can't figure these out. Thanks and sorry if this is the wrong place to ask.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 No, but just ask and folks can fill you in. IMBY - "in my backyard" --- refers to people who really want to know mostly how storms will affect them where they live A lot of the other acronyms have to do with models --- GFS, NAM are American weather models, long range and short range, CMC --- Canadian, UKMet -- British, Euro -- Eurpean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Quick question. Is there a page that lists all the abbreviations you guys use? Like IMBY, ect..... I am trying to learn more about the weather so I spend a lot of time stalking here but I can't figure these out. Thanks and sorry if this is the wrong place to ask.... IMBY= In My Backyard FWIW= For What It's Worth IMHO= In My Honest Opinion TBH= To Be Honest thats all I can name off the top of my head, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Why do people feel the need to make a "call"? So they can try to prove they are right when they end up wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mama2Many Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Thanks:) I'm mainly interested in the location abbreviations. So I know where ya'll are talking about when you're making forecasts:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Quick question. Is there a page that lists all the abbreviations you guys use? Like IMBY, ect..... I am trying to learn more about the weather so I spend a lot of time stalking here but I can't figure these out. Thanks and sorry if this is the wrong place to ask.... Google helps as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 DCA=Reagan National IAD=Dulles BWI=BWI RIC=Richmond CHO=Charlottesville (?) SBY=Salisbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Thanks:) I'm mainly interested in the location abbreviations. So I know where ya'll are talking about when you're making forecasts:) Like DCA? Those types? Whenever you see one just type it in (usually with a K out in front) and you'll get a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 IIRC - if I remember correctly Aoa - at or above normal temps Aob - at or below normal temps Ens - ensemle model suite H85 / H7 / h5 - different levels of the atmosphere. Lower # higher altitude. Shorthand for 850 millibars, 700 millibars etc +tssn - what I expect to experience tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 21z SREFs another solid hit for the area. 0.5" mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 IIRC - if I remember correctly Aoa - at or above normal temps Aob - at or below normal temps Ens - ensemle model suite H85 / H7 / h5 - different levels of the atmosphere. Lower # higher altitude. Shorthand for 850 millibars, 700 millibars etc +tssn - what I expect to experience tomorrow are you expecting a chance of +tssn for the majority of the area, or just expectations for your backyard? and other stupid question, but IMHO it seems more likely then +tssn, could you see areas near the coast getting Blizzard Warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 TSS. This storm sucks. Edit: Keepin' it real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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