nj2va Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Who else does nuanced forecast? Curious ABC 7 does...they usually show a snow total with probabilities graphic. They don't include the probabilities in their forecast map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I doubt the 8-12 band is in the right place, all the models have SBY at the southern extreme of the banding and looking at closer to 5". SBY prob gets 5 or 6, but pretty much every model other than the Euro has 8-10 inches for the mid and upper Delmarva and SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 TWC going with a stripe of 8-12 right along I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 TWC going with a stripe of 8-12 right along I95. Is that model output or their actual forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Is that model output or their actual forecast? Their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 My updated forecast is for 7 to 10 inches over most of MD, DE, NJ, se PA and n VA, with possible 12 to 14 inch max amounts just north of BWI to just south of PHL (and isolated to nw of IAD). Cold air will rush in late tonight in response to height crash and pressure falls, good times. Agree that thunder-snow quite possible Tuesday late afternoon, evening. Large-scale motion of low on models may disguise tendency for double-centered formation in response to arctic front stalling over coastal waters, northern DE and n.e. MD could therefore be in blizzard conditions at times with a locally enhanced gradient around a western secondary center. There could be a double-secondary look to this and that second feature could be close to IAD before being absorbed around 7-9 p.m. Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 TWC going with a stripe of 8-12 right along I95. Love the 95 divide line. Hope that verifies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 ABC 7 does...they usually show a snow total with probabilities graphic. They don't include the probabilities in their forecast map. Someone like Bob Ryan had a very similar forecasting philosophy to CWG. So do a lot of government products.. they are just tucked into graphics and things most people never see. I think there is a tricky balance there where you still want to try to actually give a forecast.. but if you don't know you don't know. Mets get on their own case more than the public does when they don't know. Public gets annoyed but keeps coming back because they realize predicting the future is hard... they still want you to give it something of a go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I seriously have not watched TWC in forever but damn I remember her....ALWAYS STANDS IN FRONT OF THE DAMN MAP! lol I used to call her "close talker" because she always moves towards the camera when she talks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 TWC going with a stripe of 8-12 right along I95. snow holed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 We've been doing winter wx probs for snow and ice at HPC (now WPC) for several years now. FWIW. Who else does nuanced forecast? Curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Lot of optimism in here. Doesn't DC often get screwed by northern stream systems and storms where we rely on some sort of redevelopment nearby/overhead? We have both here. I like the model consensus, but I am still cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 accu.jpg first weatherbell snowmaps too low now accuwx.. what is happening here?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 LWX just upped the upper end of the forecast to 8" for the metro areas in the warning phrasing. 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Someone like Bob Ryan had a very similar forecasting philosophy to CWG. So do a lot of government products.. they are just tucked into graphics and things most people never see. I think there is a tricky balance there where you still want to try to actually give a forecast.. but if you don't know you don't know. Mets get on their own case more than the public does when they don't know. Public gets annoyed but keeps coming back because they realize predicting the future is hard... they still want you to give it something of a go though. Yeah, I definitely get why mets use probability forecasts especially in a lower confidence forecast. I kind of like how ABC7 does it where they show their graphic of overall totals with probabilities but still gives their forecast map of the most likely scenario. I sort of wish LWX would adopt something similar with their snow map but that'd be a lot of work probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 first weatherbell snowmaps too low now accuwx.. what is happening here?? is it surprising to anyone that bottom of the barrel private weather companies use cheap model-to-snowfall programs to generate their maps? obvious they both just convert everything to 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Is that model output or their actual forecast? Looks like an in house model output no way would someone put that kind of detail on a forecast (note the little purple, near the spaghetti bowl). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Lot of optimism in here. Doesn't DC often get screwed by northern stream systems and storms where we rely on some sort of redevelopment nearby/overhead? We have both here. I like the model consensus, but I am still cautious. This isn't a miller b. There will be no pause-transfer-redevelopment. There is no dry slot anywhere near us. Precip breaks out as the vort digs below us just like a normal clipper but track of the surface low is ideal. There is only one low to worry about. Not some primary in wv/oh as we pray secondary off the coast gets going soon enough. No reason to be cautious unless you are expecting 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Nuances forecast are kind of my pet peeve, prefer everyone to take a stab see who verifies best over time. Nuanced forecast is major CYA and I suppose is good for long term employment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 StormTotalSnowRange.png just needs to jump more south and a perfect hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 my zone changed to 4-8. woohoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 LWX just upped the upper end of the forecast to 8" for the metro areas in the warning phrasing. 4-8" Figured they would, 6" was to low for a high end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 my zone changed to 4-8. woohoo. Ion is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ion is coming.Talk about bad luck. Missed by one letter. #janus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Matches up pretty well with LWX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'm going with 5-9" for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I am going 6-10" for my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Nuances forecast are kind of my pet peeve, prefer everyone to take a stab see who verifies best over time. Nuanced forecast is major CYA and I suppose is good for long term employment. I much prefer probability forecasts. They allow the end user to see the amount of uncertainty that exists and plan accordingly. It also allows for better long term forecasts I think as well ... forecasters do not get hung up on 2-4 vs 3-6, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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