stormtracker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Ok, I'm stupid. What does HAM stand for? Ha..nothing..just means going crazy...off the reservation, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 How is this a redeveloping clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Coastal needs to pop in with all those really colorful and cool meso maps that I have no idea how to read and tell us where the 5"/hr bands set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Airlines already cancelling flights for tomorrow 40 at EWR 99 at PHL 71 at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Airlines already cancelling flights for tomorrow 40 at EWR 99 at PHL 71 at DCA Is there a list somewhere of the DCA cancellations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 How is this a redeveloping clipper?It better be, regular clippers suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Enjoy. Not bad overall. He is favoring the typical zones given the mid lvl track. I think the typical areas that get deformed around here in play though for higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 With ratios a solid 8+ for IAD. Grain of salt graphic, but nice to see one with 100% snow as the p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Is there a list somewhere of the DCA cancellations? Flight tracking sites would be the best way to go. Or FAA is another site. im sure tomorrow it will be all canceled on the boards Across the whole country, there was 442 cancellations today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Enjoy. I doubt the 8-12 band is in the right place, all the models have SBY at the southern extreme of the banding and looking at closer to 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Enjoy. If he is such a nostradamus of weather, how come his first and last calls are different? Shouldn't he have nailed this from the outset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If he is such a nostradamus of weather, how come his first and last calls are different? Shouldn't he have nailed this from the outset? He said today that he was the greatest forecaster in the history of the world and that's why they pay him the big bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nobody posted the good DT stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 He said today that he was the greatest forecaster in the history of the world and that's why they pay him the big bucks. Plus there's no way to verify most of his 12-16 stripe, as it falls primarily over water. Details, details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nobody posted the good DT stuff. That's the SREF. Those are biased high by the ARWs, which are known to be too wet. That said, when you take out the low outliers as well, you still end up with a pretty hefty (near double digit) mean snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The "percent chance of seeing 12 inches" seems like a totally specious type of forecasting. I predict 99 percent chance for everyone, The people who don't verify, that's the 1 percent chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Big difference between March 6th and January 20th. Especially with the arctic air thats coming in. Yes, difference in time of year (obviously) and the overall synoptic set-up. But beyond that, there was a much higher degree of uncertainty with the March 6 event, even as the expectation was a good hit. If I recall correctly, the SREF went bonkers, the NAM had a couple of runs as time got close that were really good, the GFS was so-so, and the Euro was not all that excited. Also, there was a much larger spread of possibilities...and the BL conditions were (obviously) far more marginal. But I agree, that one still stings!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The "percent chance of seeing 12 inches" seems like a totally specious type of forecasting. I predict 99 percent chance for everyone, The people who don't verify, that's the 1 percent chance. CWG started it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The "percent chance of seeing 12 inches" seems like a totally specious type of forecasting. I predict 99 percent chance for everyone, The people who don't verify, that's the 1 percent chance. "We are the 99%!!" (sorry, OWS protest reference)!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That's the SREF. Those are biased high by the ARWs, which are known to be too wet. That said, when you take out the low outliers as well, you still end up with a pretty hefty (near double digit) mean snowfall. Ah, he didn't specify it wasn't his own glorious forecast. I guess it was obvious since it wasn't poorly drawn lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Ah, he didn't specify it wasn't his own glorious forecast. I guess it was obvious since it wasn't poorly drawn lines. And the bottom (albeit cut off) time stamps indicative of model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 "We are the 99%!!" (sorry, OWS protest reference)!! Yeah, you've been downgraded to a 98 percent chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Taking 50/50 odds on anything is a cop out, and allows one to come back and say "I was right" either way. Take a stand, even if it's 60/40 or 40/60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yeah, you've been downgraded to a 98 percent chance. Ha!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 CWG started it. no we didnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The SREF probabilities are computer generated based on the ensemble forecast. It's not a human forecast. That said, some human-input probabilistic forecasts (i.e., like SPC severe weather forecasts) have very specific definitions which most people don't take time to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Is there a list somewhere of the DCA cancellations? This is by far the best site: http://flightaware.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 CWG started it. no we didnt Who else does nuanced forecast? Curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 GFS: DCA: 140121/1500Z 21 04012KT 26.9F SNOW 14:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 14:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0140121/1800Z 24 03015KT 22.2F SNOW 16:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.128 15:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140121/2100Z 27 36015KT 18.8F SNOW 17:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.185 16:1| 5.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0140122/0000Z 30 35015KT 15.5F SNOW 21:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.134 17:1| 8.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49 100| 0| 0140122/0300Z 33 34015KT 12.8F SNOW 22:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 18:1| 9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 100| 0| 0 IAD: 140121/1500Z 21 04012KT 22.5F SNOW 19:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074 19:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0140121/1800Z 24 03013KT 19.5F SNOW 19:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.169 19:1| 4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140121/2100Z 27 36013KT 15.7F SNOW 23:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.160 21:1| 8.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0140122/0000Z 30 34014KT 13.9F SNOW 14:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.109 19:1| 9.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0140122/0300Z 33 34014KT 12.3F SNOW 13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 19:1| 10.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 100| 0| 0 BWI: 140121/1500Z 21 04014KT 24.0F SNOW 19:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 19:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0140121/1800Z 24 03017KT 20.0F SNOW 18:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119 18:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140121/2100Z 27 01019KT 17.3F SNOW 17:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.197 17:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0140122/0000Z 30 36019KT 15.0F SNOW 20:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144 18:1| 8.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49 100| 0| 0140122/0300Z 33 34019KT 11.4F SNOW 16:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 18:1| 9.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 100| 0| 0140122/0600Z 36 33018KT 8.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 18:1| 9.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 100| 0| 0 MRB: 140121/1200Z 18 06008KT 20.6F SNOW 18:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 18:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0140121/1500Z 21 04012KT 18.9F SNOW 15:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.174 15:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0140121/1800Z 24 03014KT 17.0F SNOW 20:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.181 18:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140121/2100Z 27 01013KT 14.4F SNOW 22:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.131 19:1| 9.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49 100| 0| 0140122/0000Z 30 34013KT 13.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 17:1| 10.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58 100| 0| 0140122/0300Z 33 33014KT 11.4F SNOW 26:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 18:1| 10.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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