Ji Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Savor it. We'll have another couple hundred busts and agony events before it repeats. Unless you believe in atmospheric memory. I kinda do but not for dc snow. Only mappy snow. we will pay dearly for this event. Next snowstorm, Dec 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is the kind of setup that would do it in the heaviest bands. I'm kinda expecting the "omg thunder!" Posts from somebody in the ma forum It will happen where there is a deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 every model run since yesterday has trended wetter...when does that trend stop? not until the event and we end with a widespread foot? duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I knew I moved from Norfolk to DC for a good reason! Game time boys! Models have gone from no deal clipper to full fledged snowstorm. Wow! Count on a few inches above what's reported at IAD, unless you live near swiscaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 every model run since yesterday has trended wetter...when does that trend stop? 0z euro when it shows 1-3 over n md. And a cartoppper for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Been out of town, just catching up now. How things have changed. SREF plumes are bananas for FDK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is the kind of setup that would do it in the heaviest bands. I'm kinda expecting the "omg thunder!" Posts from somebody in the ma forum Before or after "omg my lights are flickering" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 every model run since yesterday has trended wetter...when does that trend stop? was easy to predict too.. the mid and upper levels looked way better than the sfc and they've either held of gotten slightly better today. every now and then we look like we know how to do winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just posted this on FB Probabilities for DC properAt least:Dusting - 95%1" - 90%2" - 85%3" - 75%4" - 65%5" - 55%6" - 45%7" - 35%8" - 30%9" - 20%10" - 15%1 foot - 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 not until the event and we end with a widespread foot? duh. there's still a limited moisture supply here, not sure a widespread foot is possible.. that's a big event which would have lollis to like 18 or so at least you'd think. we might add a bit more but i wouldn't bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Euro is getting its ass kicked by the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Euro is getting its ass kicked by the RGEM. euro was wetter than the GFS at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 euro was wetter than the GFS at 12z even if it was slow to get there it's probably the one to hug at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just posted this on FB Probabilities for DC proper At least: Dusting - 95% 1" - 90% 2" - 85% 3" - 75% 4" - 65% 5" - 55% 6" - 45% 7" - 35% 8" - 30% 9" - 20% 10" - 15% 1 foot - 10% Seems very reasonable. Good output. Going into work tomorrow is going to suck. I think snow begins at 6 AM here in CHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'll crack open a good beer if this run is a winner. Amen. I may crack open one of my Goose Island Bourbon county stouts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Channel 2 in Baltimore going 6-8" for the entire area including DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregD Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Amen. I may crack open one of my Goose Island Bourbon county stouts Good idea - I was saving my last two BCS and two coffees for something special. This might be it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 6 out of 10 on the carmeggedon scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Channel 2 in Baltimore going 6-8" for the entire area including DC. I think that's a good call. Maybe some lolli's up to 12 but thinking about getting anything more than that is just weenie-ness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Now, will most of the area get less or more than their total on 1/26/11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 euro was wetter than the GFS at 12z There is no doubt it has lost some luster, though. Other models have been better at sniffing out the trends. Euro is probably still best at verification, probably. I don't look that closely post storm. That said, I no longer really fear it saying no if the other models show a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well shoot...18z NAM sounding for 18z tomorrow shows a potentially unstable layer near the 600mb level in the snow growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 There is no doubt it has lost some luster, though. Other models have been better at sniffing out the trends. Euro is probably still best at verification, probably. I don't look that closely post storm. That said, I no longer really fear it saying no if the other models show a hit. Agree. It's been unreliable. Sure it got Hurricane Sandy early but perception tells me it's been performing badly this winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Been a long time since everyone from DC to Bos has cashed in. Ric might even be in the game. Living on the edge as usual. 3-5" seems to be a safe bet at this point though. We'll see if AKQ gives us a WSW with the evening package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just bought this today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What is our best Clipper gone rouge storm around here anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Good idea - I was saving my last two BCS and two coffees for something special. This might be it! I heard this year's coffee is amazing. Had my first coffee ('12) at a bottle share last night and it was great. Hopefully you got your hands on some Barleywine too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I heard this year's coffee is amazing. Had my first coffee ('12) at a bottle share last night and it was great. Hopefully you got your hands on some Barleywine too. i managed to get a 4pk of the bcs and 2 12oz of the barleywine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Eastern NC has seen several of these types of systems over the years. I was involved in one on Obama inauguration day in '09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well shoot...18z NAM sounding for 18z tomorrow shows a potentially unstable layer near the 600mb level in the snow growth zone. So nice to see soundings where there is absolutely no chance of mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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