stormtracker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 What's with the NCEP out of order frames? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Can anyone spit out numbers on the GFS or is the run still going? I am stuck on my mobile device. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 3:33 AM, stormtracker said: Might be time to storm mode some folks. Please... anything to make it stop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I use instantweathermaps now. So much faster than NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 3:32 AM, Always in Zugzwang said: Possible to get a recap of the nightcap? NCEP's site seems to be way behind when a lot of you get the details. GFS held serve. Juicer than 18z, for mid-Atlantic at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 GFS looks like a pretty good shellacking...NCEP sucks in the S L O W E S T way possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 3:35 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Can anyone spit out numbers on the GFS or is the run still going? I am stuck on my mobile device. I'm trying but the board isnt cooperating...10 years running now of the board performing the worst when we need it to perform the best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 GFS is over a foot here. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This negativity is getting aggravating. And we haven't even gotten to the radar hallucinations yet! On the one hand, yeah, kinda understand it because we've seen the bust movie and it's many sequels before in the last 3 years, so it's hard not to have the "other shoe dropping" syndrome. But seriously, unless someone is unrealistically expecting 10" or more, I think panicking is a bit much now. We're looking at an area-wide 4-8" for the immediate metro DC area and more perhaps in places like north-northeast MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 anyway...hopefully this posts...GFS crushes us and has a big margin for error...great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 .6 on the GFS? My map is crude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 3:34 AM, stormtracker said: What's with the NCEP out of order frames? I've noticed that a fair amount...seems to fill them in at strange times and not in order. Don't know why, maybe something to do with when that particular image file gets sent over the server, and if there's a backlog maybe a later one gets "in line" prior to an earlier projection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 3:36 AM, snow. said: anyway...hopefully this posts...GFS crushes us and has a big margin for error...great run Exactly, the GFS is everything DC'ers could have ever wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 3:34 AM, snow. said: it clobbers us and the margin for error is huge I think it more likely to be right over us than the NAM or Rgem. The vort still looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Double digits or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 GFS is 8 inches for everyone. Sleep well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2014012100/USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_024.gif On mobile best I can do. Does that account for ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 3:35 AM, blueapple said: GFS held serve. Juicer than 18z, for mid-Atlantic at least. TYVM...I'll check the details a bit more once it's finally shown up on NCEP's site LOL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 GFS is sweet. Most of the area in the 12.5-17.5mm area, which I imagine would translate to a solid 6-10" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 3:38 AM, usedtobe said: I think it more likely to be right over us than the NAM or Rgem. The vort still looks great.No forecast has ever been better by weighting the NAM and RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 .65 for jyo. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I don't have local detailed maps yet for qpf but dca .6? It's a big bad gut punch for people who don't like snow regionwide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wow, GFS gives me 11-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 GFS keeps me interested. RGEM and NAM say coating to inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Bufkit using cobb for ratios is a solid 7" for IAD/BWI using the NAM. And the GFS looks wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Sorry for melting down...though still not confident...Randy and Ian got angry at me;)...at least model output only busted by 13 degrees on my temp this afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 8-10 for beltwayers per GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 3:36 AM, Always in Zugzwang said: This negativity is getting aggravating. And we haven't even gotten to the radar hallucinations yet! On the one hand, yeah, kinda understand it because we've seen the bust movie and it's many sequels before in the last 3 years, so it's hard not to have the "other shoe dropping" syndrome. But seriously, unless someone is unrealistically expecting 10" or more, I think panicking is a bit much now. We're looking at an area-wide 4-8" for the immediate metro DC area and more perhaps in places like north-northeast MD. 7 or 8 would be crippling. Not sure panic is the right mode, but preparation certainly is. I'm assuming 6 or 7 and shut down of schools/ region until Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Winchester to Leesburg to Parkton. Enjoy your dusting guys. Poor Ji chilling in the steam gutter next to DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 3:40 AM, Bob Chill said: I don't have local detailed maps yet for qpf but dca .6? It's a big bad gut punch for people who don't like snow regionwide It just slapped the junior varsity models into oblivion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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