Hoosier Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 dang, friday might not be half bad if this is any indication. NAM/GFS underestimated the wind potential tonight invof the snow showers. 40+ mph gusts shouldn't have occurred given the progged speeds/mixing depth so Friday could get really interesting if the same thing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I guess 10"+ events will be bidecade occurrences from now on I know it's frustration talk, but in reality we've officially already had 2 and the decade has just started its 5th year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 you get accumulating snow without radar returns. If snow was blackjack...you'd have nonstop 21s. I just dont get why theres no returns. The models advertised a widespread light qpf event. And while its the pixie dust variety, there still are some actual flakes, its not PURE dust. DTW has been between 1.5-2.0 miles since 3pm yet there hasnt been any solidity at all to radar http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDTW.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I know it's frustration talk, but in reality we've officially already 2 and the decade has just started its 5th year. I know you guys are talking friday but tonights LES snow band is so close. I noticed Buffalo called this a "tea kettle band" I don't think I've heard that term used much. Will be interesting to see if Ill be able to sneak out an inch or two from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 It was a nightmare getting to the Michigan vs. Iowa basketball game tonight. Yeah I heard a lot of horror stories about the roads. Probably because its SO cold I would guess. Its not like this isnt like the 25th snowy commute of the season lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I guess 10 6"+ events will be bidecade occurrences from now on Fixed. That's the downsloping off the Niagara Escarpment. You can see the same phenomenon in NE lower MI with the higher elevation to the west. Honestly, when there's a sound meteorological reason for the screwage, I don't get so upset. SW winds = no go for snow here. That's just the rules of the game. Yeah I understand that and unfortunately, when we do get the opportunity to see some mild action in the area, it turns out to be dud. How amusing, dont you say? Moreover, it's become a reoccurring theme where the GTA gets screwed over and usually its through some crazy phenomenon thats slowing edging towards a new norm for the city. Its like Mother Nature wants to f*ck over the seemingly snowy city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Anyone want to venture a guess which way the NAM is going after 84 hours for the Sunday/Monday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I know you guys are talking friday but tonights LES snow band is so close. I noticed Buffalo called this a "tea kettle band" I don't think I've heard that term used much. Will be interesting to see if Ill be able to sneak out an inch or two from this There's been little westward motion. I had little hope as it is and trends aren't encouraging. Maybe we can get a dusting out of the synoptic. Roger Smith's 6-10" band shall be an unrealized dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Anyone want to venture a guess which way the NAM is going after 84 hours for the Sunday/Monday storm? this run was on the southern end of the spread...gonna waiver a dozen more times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I feel bad for the Toronto weather media since I can see how this could be a surprise event. Don't want to say 5-10cm and then have people wake up to light flurries and a dusting. The opposite is just as bad (maybe worse) because if you say flurries and the QEW commute is hit then people will be pissed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Anyone want to venture a guess which way the NAM is going after 84 hours for the Sunday/Monday storm? posted in Ohio thread....but looks like it would be south according to the 84 panel and the 87 sref.... of course I'm extrapolating already bad ranges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I feel bad for the Toronto weather media since I can see how this could be a surprise event. Don't want to say 5-10cm and then have people wake up to light flurries and a dusting. The opposite is just as bad (maybe worse) because if you say flurries and the QEW commute is hit then people will be pissed I didn't see any of the newscasts. How hard were they hitting this? Aside from a couple of rogue RGEM runs I didn't see anything pointing towards this being more than a remote possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Dead serious question...is English your second language? No! Why? LOL. I only speak English. -_-. I do however know Spanish/French a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 12km NAM in the next 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 No! Why? LOL. I only speak English. -_-. I do however know Spanish/French a little bit. I took it to PM. But since you've answered me here, never mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Our "mets" if you can call them that are useless. This. I often think that Farnell is the only competent one. Harold Hosein, Tom Brown and Claire Martin are awful. Good people I'm sure. But not great at the weather. They tend to want to say what they think the public wants to hear rather than what the weather is really going to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I know it's frustration talk, but in reality we've officially already had 2 and the decade has just started its 5th year. How many 10"+ storms have we had since November 2004? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I didn't see any of the newscasts. How hard were they hitting this? Aside from a couple of rogue RGEM runs I didn't see anything pointing towards this being more than a remote possibility. Not sure, I didn't catch them. This winter though is starting to really get to people. All Ive heard on campus is that this is crap haha. I'm actually okay with this pattern. Not often Toronto sees cold and consistent snow cover like this. The clippers haven't been big delivers but the consistent 1-3cm every few days have made it okay for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 How many 10"+ storms have we had since November 2004? Off the top of my head...4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 4km NAM - the whole run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The "squall line" appears to be "turning right" and will probably miss me to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I just dont get why theres no returns. The models advertised a widespread light qpf event. And while its the pixie dust variety, there still are some actual flakes, its not PURE dust. DTW has been between 1.5-2.0 miles since 3pm yet there hasnt been any solidity at all to radar http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDTW.html Reflectivity is poor during extreme cold. We had 1 inch per hour snowfall rates during the blizzard a few weeks ago for 12 hours with the radar barely showing any returns. The tail end of this loop shows it quite nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Off the top of my head...4 Quadecade* Greater Vancouver has had 4 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Whatever happens, I won't be getting much snow out of this right up on the border with Markham. Fingers crossed for this weekend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Quadecade* Greater Vancouver has had 4 as well Well, even before our recent romp through the valley of turds, we never had a good snowstorm climo. Good years saw relatively frequent 4-8" type storms. 10+ storms have always been a 1 in 3-4 year type phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This. I often think that Farnell is the only competent one. Harold Hosein, Tom Brown and Claire Martin are awful. Good people I'm sure. But not great at the weather. They tend to want to say what they think the public wants to hear rather than what the weather is really going to do. Natasha Ramsahai and Adam Stiles of CityNews are pretty good too. As well as Chris Potter of CP24. BTW, Potter is not calling for any significant accumulations tonight, but mentioned that if the band moves onshore, areas from Toronto Island and points west towards Oakville would be favoured. Also, he's calling for a couple of inches for the Friday night-Saturday clipper and only flurries for the Sunday clipper (he says that most of the action will stay south). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Regarding Friday/Saturday, I like somewhere around 3" for here right now. Amounts could be a little higher if the wetter models verify. Normally it's debatable whether this would warrant an advisory but the wind component should push it over the top imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Well, even before our recent romp through the valley of turds, we never had a good snowstorm climo. Good years saw relatively frequent 4-8" type storms. 10+ storms have always been a 1 in 3-4 year type phenomenon. Frequent 4-8" storms sounds like a dream. I would LOVE that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Natasha Ramsahai and Adam Stiles of CityNews are pretty good too. As well as Chris Potter of CP24. BTW, Potter is not calling for any significant accumulations tonight, but mentioned that if the band moves onshore, areas from Toronto Island and points west towards Oakville would be favoured. Also, he's calling for a couple of inches for the Friday night-Saturday clipper and only flurries for the Sunday clipper (he says that most of the action will stay south). If the GFS is right, we might get some snow on Monday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Natasha Ramsahai and Adam Stiles of CityNews are pretty good too. As well as Chris Potter of CP24. BTW, Potter is not calling for any significant accumulations tonight, but mentioned that if the band moves onshore, areas from Toronto Island and points west towards Oakville would be favoured. Also, he's calling for a couple of inches for the Friday night-Saturday clipper and only flurries for the Sunday clipper (he says that most of the action will stay south). I know that Natasha has a B.Sc in Atmospheric Science and is pretty educated. I met her and she's fantastic at what she does. I disagree with her choice of models but everyone has their preferences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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