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January 22-27th Clippers/Hybrids


Chicago Storm

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Had a couple nice bursts of some +SN. Visibility about a city block a few times with the blowing snow. There is actually a row of houses behind that house in the pic.

My mom just called me and said its kinda wild up there at times. Enjoy.

Snowing pretty good here right now, but not much wind.

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HRRR/RAP keeping the band over the lake for the most part. EC is bullish because of the RGEM, which is more aggressive, although it backed off markedly from its 6z run this morning. After looking over some hires sounding's looks like a potential land breeze/meso-low situation as opposed to a single LES band creeping in from the east. Thinking a trace-1" across some parts of the GTA. Maybe we get surprised.

 

Yeah, I'm not feeling it. EC RGEM humping again and will get burned most likely.

 

On the other hand, *IF* this northern jog with the Sunday clipper pans out (and I have my doubts still), that looks like a prime LEnhS setup for Toronto.

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The combination of blowing snow and falling snow is leading to visibility around a quarter of a mile in Naperville. Very intense pockets of snow right now

 

yeah, some pockets of wickedness rolled through...

 

after getting a coating from the daylong pixie dust falling...I mustered about .4 inches....which mostly came from the large dendrites piling up in the bursts over the last 2 hours

 

cloud deck clearing out....gonna be a chilly night

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I still cant get over the fact that the local tv meteorologists and even ILX are not mentioning the potential white out conditions with blowing snow for the Peoria area  in rural areas on Friday into early Friday night. It's obvious that its coming and this will catch a lot of people off guard.  

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Yeah, I'm not feeling it. EC RGEM humping again and will get burned most likely.

 

On the other hand, *IF* this northern jog with the Sunday clipper pans out (and I have my doubts still), that looks like a prime LEnhS setup for Toronto.

 

All the local  T.V mets are saying maybe 2-4 inches may fall overnight;.

If so it would be rare lake effect on ESE winds off Lake Ontario.

 

Usually those winds precede a slight torch and kill Lake O. snow bands but.....

it is cold enough and if wind strengthen , who knows?

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All the local  T.V mets are saying maybe 2-4 inches may fall overnight;.

If so it would be rare lake effect on ESE winds off Lake Ontario.

 

Usually those winds precede a slight torch and kill Lake O. snow bands but.....

it is cold enough and if wind strengthen , who knows?

 

Throw the dice in the air, it's up to chance really with these types of set ups.

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All the local  T.V mets are saying maybe 2-4 inches may fall overnight;.

If so it would be rare lake effect on ESE winds off Lake Ontario.

 

Usually those winds precede a slight torch and kill Lake O. snow bands but.....

it is cold enough and if wind strengthen , who knows?

 

It actually happens several times per winter. Last Jan-Feb was a litany of mesolow events. And of course Dec 14 this winter.

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Yeah, I'm not feeling it. EC RGEM humping again and will get burned most likely.

 

On the other hand, *IF* this northern jog with the Sunday clipper pans out (and I have my doubts still), that looks like a prime LEnhS setup for Toronto.

Don't like the PV positioning at all, so am definitely skeptical that we will see the wave spacing needed to get that clipper tracking as far north as currently shown by the euro. Agree though that if it plays out like the 12z euro is indicating, QPF would probably be higher then currently indicated.

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All the local  T.V mets are saying maybe 2-4 inches may fall overnight;.

If so it would be rare lake effect on ESE winds off Lake Ontario.

 

Usually those winds precede a slight torch and kill Lake O. snow bands but.....

it is cold enough and if wind strengthen , who knows?

Winds aren't out of the SE at all, actually. Its a land breeze/lake convergence situation with the wind directly out of the north. Similar to the setup that we saw around christmas.

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It will be interesting to watch how the orientation is of the low level baroclinic zone for Sunday. It's more NW-SE with the strongest WAA south of the sfc low with a westerly/WSW component to it which is why you're getting heavy snows in model land east and even ESE of the sfc low.

 

In most cases, this sfc low track wouldn't be the best for here

 

post-266-0-43658500-1390436442_thumb.gif

 

 

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It actually happens several times per winter. Last Jan-Feb was a litany of mesolow events. And of course Dec 14 this winter.

 

That Dec. 14th event had E-NE winds.

 

Winds aren't out of the SE at all, actually. Its a land breeze/lake convergence situation with the wind directly out of the north. Similar to the setup that we saw around christmas.

The winds currently at Pearson are SSE 5 km/hr and at Billy Bishop Airport are ESE 5 km/hr.

Will see if they pick up from there southeasterly directions.

 

Winds aren't currently from N or NE direction.

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Yeah, I'm not feeling it. EC RGEM humping again and will get burned most likely.

 

On the other hand, *IF* this northern jog with the Sunday clipper pans out (and I have my doubts still), that looks like a prime LEnhS setup for Toronto.

 

Yeah, i am not feeling it either.

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That Dec. 14th event had E-NE winds.

 

The winds currently at Pearson are SSE 5 km/hr and at Billy Bishop Airport are ESE 5 km/hr.

Will see if they pick up from there southeasterly directions.

 

Winds aren't currently from N or NE direction.

I guess what I meant to say is that winds are going to shift to a northerly direction shortly(before 1am), which should help intensify the lake convergence with S/SE winds along the other side of this boundary near KBUF.

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