buckeye Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 12z euro thru 120...most places are getting half of that on Friday night and the remainder on Sunday's event. beyond this it looks like something is exploding in the middle of the country but don't have time to wait to see what...around 216 all of MO goes from nothing to 2-3".....also there is 2-3" in Louisianna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Great post Roger. And for tonight's event, Environment Canada just issued a Special Weather Statement for the Golden Horseshoe for significant lake effect/enhanced snow. From Environment Canada: City of Toronto 1:21 PM EST Wednesday 22 January 2014 Special weather statement for City of Toronto issued Significant lake enhanced snowfall possible starting tonight. Current information suggests the development of lake effect snow over Lake Ontario potentially impacting areas around the Golden Horseshoe. It is expected the snow band will develop in the late evening hours and persist into Thursday morning rush hour. At the moment the exact location is difficult to determine but it is expected to generate local snowfall amounts on the order of 5 to 10 cm with poor visibilities of less than half a kilometre. If the snow band remains stationary for a long period of time, then 15 cm of snow will be possible and a snow squall warning could be issued. Motorists should exercise caution when driving around the Golden Horseshoe as hazardous driving conditions could develop due to accumulating snow and poor driving visibilities. The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended. Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca. Im kind of bearish for all three events. For tonight, the wind field looks too light and variable to get anything of significance onshore. Maybe a localized inch or two somewhere between Toronto and Cobourg. Maybe. For Friday-Saturday, downsloping is the problem. For Sunday, although the models look pretty good, I'm still think a whiff/graze to the south based on the ul pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Im kind of bearish for all three events. For tonight, the wind field looks too light and variable to get anything of significance onshore. Maybe a localized inch or two somewhere between Toronto and Cobourg. Maybe. For Friday-Saturday, downsloping is the problem. For Sunday, although the models look pretty good, I'm still think a whiff/graze to the south based on the ul pattern. For tonight's event, CityNews forecaster Natasha Ramsahai mentioned on Twitter (twitter.com/CityNatasha) a few hours ago the lake effect snow chance for the GTA before Environment Canada issued their special weather statement. I guess the in-house models at CityNews is picking up the meso low over Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 For tonight's event, CityNews forecaster Natasha Ramsahai mentioned on Twitter (twitter.com/CityNatasha) a few hours ago the lake effect snow chance for the GTA before Environment Canada issued their special weather statement. I guess the in-house models at CityNews is picking up the meso low over Lake Ontario. 4km NAM suite out of BUF is not showing a thing and usually they're pretty good at sniffing stuff like this out. LES is tricky and we'll have to keep an eye on radar but I'd stay a million miles away from forecasting anything close to Roger Smith's numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 4km NAM suite out of BUF is not showing a thing and usually they're pretty good at sniffing stuff like this out. LES is tricky and we'll have to keep an eye on radar but I'd stay a million miles away from forecasting anything close to Roger Smith's numbers. Yeah, it's tricky for sure. The Jan 2-3 2013 mesolow which dumped 3" in downtown Toronto and 2" in East York came out of nowhere. And the February 16, 2013 event which gave Toronto 2-5" was also a last minute surprise, though CityNews met Adam Stiles mentioned on the 11 pm newscast on Feb. 15/13 that the station's in-house model was picking up on the mesolow for the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Pretty good uptick in flake size out here, not surprising given a pretty good DGZ currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 18z NAM still QPF-heavy for the Friday event. Not surprising, given it tends to overamplify QPF in the "long range" compared to the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 18z NAM still QPF-heavy for the Friday event. Not surprising, given it tends to overamplify QPF in the "long range" compared to the globals. It's not as wet as the 12z run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It's not as wet as the 12z run though. Speak for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yeah, it's tricky for sure. The Jan 2-3 2013 mesolow which dumped 3" in downtown Toronto and 2" in East York came out of nowhere. And the February 16, 2013 event which gave Toronto 2-5" was also a last minute surprise, though CityNews met Adam Stiles mentioned on the 11 pm newscast on Feb. 15/13 that the station's in-house model was picking up on the mesolow for the next day. EC going with local 2-4" amounts tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 NAM doesn't look too far off from the GFS/Euro rough consensus for the Sunday event either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Waves of Arctic Air and Snow to Continue To Barrage the Great Lakes and Southeast Lower Michigan! http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2014/01/waves-of-arctic-air-and-snow-to.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 just had a burst of SN to nearly SN+ ... lasted for about 10 minutes... solid -SN currently which I believe yesterday's hi res actually showed a quick uptick in this timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Legit +SN here at CoD, can't see our 1/4 mi vis marker. These little bands are impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 respectable -sn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Burst of SN here with one of these narrow bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Legit +SN here at CoD, can't see our 1/4 mi vis marker. These little bands are impressive. +SN at RPJ as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 +SN at RPJ as well. Yeah anything about 20dbz is pretty impressive. Few small areas of 30-35dbz in southern DeKalb/Kane county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Nice uptick in snow here too. Fluffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 +sn just NE of Rockford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 EC going with local 2-4" amounts tonight. HRRR/RAP keeping the band over the lake for the most part. EC is bullish because of the RGEM, which is more aggressive, although it backed off markedly from its 6z run this morning. After looking over some hires sounding's looks like a potential land breeze/meso-low situation as opposed to a single LES band creeping in from the east. Thinking a trace-1" across some parts of the GTA. Maybe we get surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It is ripping pixie dust right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 ILN saying ratios could be as high as 40:1 with tonights snow. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH420 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMTHAT WILL AFFECT THE FA OVERNIGHT. A DIGGING H5 LOW WORKS INTO THELOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT PUSHING A SFC LOW AND CDFNT ACROSS THEREGION. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN0.05 INCHES...BUT DUE TO THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES SNOW RATIOSWILL BE VERY HIGH. EXPECT ANYWHERE BETWEEN 20-40 TO 1 ON THERATIOS. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TO 1 TO 3 INCHESIN THE NRN MIAMI VALLEY...WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS IN THECMH/DAY METRO AREAS. IN SRN OHIO AND SE INDIANA ABOUT AN INCH ISEXPECTED...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN NRN KY.THE BEST CHC OF SNOW WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SWINGTHRU BETWEEN 03-09Z. KEPT THE NR 100 POPS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OFTHE FA...BUT TAPERING TO LIKELY IN NRN KY. THE ACCUMULATING SNOWSSHOULD BE CUTTING OF FROM W TO E AFTER 06Z.POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL INCREASE AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOWS IN THESINGLE DIGITS...MAYBE BELOW ZERO IN PORTIONS OF WHITEWATER AND NRNMIAMI VALLEYS...TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS BELOW -10. SO WILL ISSUE AWIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ADVISORY WILLHAVE 2 SEGMENTS. THE FIRST FOR THE NW COUNTIES WHICH WILL RUNLONGER AND THE OTHER FOR THE REST OF THE FA. THE SRN SCIOTO VALLEYMIGHT BE MARGINAL FOR THE VALUES...BUT WILL NOT LEAVE THEM OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 You may think you're in a screw zone but I am looking out my window at the ultimate winter screw zone, I could quite easily play golf today. Except that the courses are mostly closed for the month based on climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Actually it's still quite strong, just started off weaker. Best QPF looks a bit south. Good hit for northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Sunday certainly has my eyes, the Friday clipper keeps moving along once it passes by as the parent low stalls out over Hudson's Bay. Friday's clipper won't block the road for Sunday's, it will open it enough that Sunday's clipper could amplify just a touch and move east versus shearing southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Sunday certainly has my eyes, the Friday clipper keeps moving along once it passes by as the parent low stalls out over Hudson's Bay. Friday's clipper won't block the road for Sunday's, it will open it enough that Sunday's clipper could amplify just a touch and move east versus shearing southeast. You're definitely bullish then, it sounds like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 You're definitely bullish then, it sounds like. I wouldn't say bullish but this time there won't be a remnant clipper blocking the path for the next one. Realistically Friday's clipper is a wave that forms on the fast moving Arctic front, that will keep on moving as it blows past the both of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Actually it's still quite strong, just started off weaker. Best QPF looks a bit south. Good hit for northern IL. lock it up, nothing like a sunday afternoon event to wrap up the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The combination of blowing snow and falling snow is leading to visibility around a quarter of a mile in Naperville. Very intense pockets of snow right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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